The Changing Weather Pattern

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Good morning bloggers,

The new LRC is setting up right before our eyes. There are many other things in motion as well. Take a look at the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices:

Let’s monitor these closely in the next two weeks as the new pattern evolves.  When these indexes dip deep negative, there is an increased chance of Arctic blasts.  The new pattern is evolving, and everything is on the table that will be influencing the developing pattern.

Note:  Any forecast you may see, or have seen before this date is a complete guess and based on an old pattern. The LRC sets up now, and is a peer reviewed concept that has shown tremendous accuracy, increasing accuracy over the past two decades.

Today:

An area of rain was moving in this morning.  There is a chance it will stay in the 50s all day long as the clouds thicken up over Kansas City.  It is still looking great for Sunday Night Football on NBC.

The changing pattern video:

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.  Have a great day!

Gary

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Heat MiserGaryBeccaRich (east of Topeka)Three7s Recent comment authors
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Becca
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Becca

I will say this, I have greatly enjoyed reading this blog over the years. Yes, there have been times I have been frustrated with Gary, but never once over his theory, almost always because I felt sometimes he would doubt his own model and pay too much attention to the flip flopping of the other models (GFS, Euro, etc…). The path of Dorian was the perfect example. He should have stuck with his initial prediction months earlier that most would curve up the coast. While all other news outlets were predicting it early on to cross Florida, I was really… Read more »

Rich (east of Topeka)
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Rich (east of Topeka)

Hi Gary. Hope you are having a nice day today. I was wondering if you could give us an idea of what a paying client of yours gets, vs what we as readers of your free blog get on a daily basis. I have wondered at times if I was a business paying for your services, what I would get. Would I get a calendar that shows the cycle dates, or maybe a calendar that shows dates or maybe blocks of dates where certain types of weather will occur that I could reference? Or is it not necessarily that you… Read more »

Urbanity
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Urbanity

I guess we need someone to predict the new LRC. What a great mystery, no one on earth can predict what the next LRC will look like, all the models created, all the terminology and forecast tools (SST, NAO, AO, El-Nino, PDO…), all these super computer generated forecasts based on historical data, all the oceans temps sensors, glacier ice, sun spots, etc…….all of it…..and we got nothing until later this month thru mid November. God gave you Gary the ability to see His GRC, someday we will have the ability to predict your LRC because that’s what’s next.

Three7s
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Three7s

It’s no coincidence that the new LRC starts on Yom Kippur, which is the Jewish new year and Day of Atonement. That’s why it was so easy for me to believe in the LRC. God does everything in cycles, why not the weather too?

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

oh boy

Mike H
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Mike H

I can see why you get so excited this time of year. Absolutely fascinating what’s going on with the weather pattern right now.
OK so ENSO neutral conditions this year will make it much harder to predict where the storms will track. Has anyone noticed any correlations with how the AO and NAO behave during ENSO neutral years? I remember during the past neutral year Garry’s LRC index chart was used more in comparing with the other two indexes. Analogy, ENSO drives the car(pattern)—predictable. Who drives during la Nada years?

Observer
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Observer

And the bomb cyclones

Nimbus
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Nimbus

I say bring on the Arctic Blasts, Polar Vortex, Alberta Clippers….or whatever the popular vernacular is today. A ton of snow would be nice too. We had way too many bugs this year and a super cold winter will put next years batch back on their heels a bit.

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

I don’t like the talk of artic blasts! Let’s think positive. No below zero temps this winter please! LOL Have a great weekend Bloggers!
Michael

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

NIce shirt Gary! 😉

Michael
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Michael

“Any forecast you may see, or have seen before this date is a complete guess and based on an old pattern.”. So no matter what school someone when too, as far as becoming a meteorologist, and no matter what experience they have they shouldn’t use models at all unless it is the LRC model, because they will be wrong, or a complete guess? Glad you have such high confidence in your own theory, but come on, give your fellow peers a bone, they did go to school and learned how to interpret the same models you constantly look at, and… Read more »

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

Which, click, model, click, will, click, be, click, right, click. Lol
Answer, I might be willing to bet a dollar on 20% more than 50%

I always watch AO, NAO, PNA, PDO, etc
It’s kind of encouraging to see negative trend activity already but in all years of watching them, don’t mean jack until the pattern sets up.

Three7s
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Three7s

If it does verify though, that’s a pretty big deal for the rest of the pattern….

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

True but also the frequency of lows and highs. I’ve just seen this year after year and those transition months, there’s movement, but in the meat of the seasons, not much

Urbanity
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Urbanity

The last model run is always the most accurate.

Kaden (Olathe)
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Gary,
What is the ideal set up for major snow this winter? I know it’s a trough somewhere in the west but could you please clear up exactly where?

Three7s
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Three7s

It’s just that, out west. We need systems to intensify right as they go over the Rockies.

Frankie
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Frankie

I noticed both the AO and NAO trending neutral to negative a few days ago. That would be very interesting if they both dip negative as the new LRC sets up. Arctic blasts…

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Very interesting on the NAO and AO. The long range models have been showing this colder air for some time. But they have also flip flopped on it as well. Certainly something to watch. Happy Friday everyone!