The Fall Change Is Finally Working It’s Way Across North America

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Good morning bloggers,

A cold front is on the doorstep this morning.  If you live in KC, we are near the front now, and it is nearly stationary. It will likely not move much today and it will be the focus for heavy thunderstorms tonight:

Notice how the winds are out of the east-northeast north of the front. This shows that there is no push to the front, and it will wait until this evening to really begin moving.  The front will likely light up with thunderstorms around sunset.  So, where it is located will be critical to who gets these thunderstorms. Right now it appears it will be near the south side of the KC metro area. Let’s monitor it as we move through the day.

Sunday Night Football is in Kansas City on NBC, and we will be having a post game hour long special.  By the end of the game it will be in the 50s and you will likely need a light coat. The atmosphere will be incredible as the Chiefs try to stay undefeated.

The LRC is the center piece of the big atmospheric puzzle:

The new LRC has not started and we are in the dying days of last years pattern. The new pattern begins right around kickoff of the Chiefs/Indy game at Arrowhead.

September Stats In KC:

Tradewx.com:

Here are my top three picks of the week for high and low temperatures.  You do not have to join tradewx.com to see our weather insights as one of their experts, but if you do join you do get $10 to trade with on them.  This will allow you to test it out for free.  Here is the link:

Have a great day, and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

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Rich (east of Topeka)BrittanyBlue FlashEmawMike Recent comment authors
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Brittany
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Brittany

There’s a major lowering in Independence right off 39th street by the mall. Good thing there’s zero rotation.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Cold frontal passage here in Independence. 6:16 PM. Dry, and very subtle wind shift. Dozens of dragonflies flying overhead, enjoying the last few moments of heat and humidity. Cool air finally filtering in with a nice breeze at 6:26. Still awaiting moderation at 7:26.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Hoping for Jack Squat when it comes to rainfall in Linn Valley tonight we’ve had enough for the year! Bring on the beautiful temperate weather of fall and then zonal flow all winter baby haha! Enjoy the pay blog everyone here’s to Jack Squat for snowfall this winter, cheers! 😉

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Decent rain coming down just north of Liberty. The first of many waves to come.

Update: 1/2” from a 15-20 minute rain.

Rex
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Rex

How many inches of rain can we expect in the Liberty area from this storm?

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

If I had to guess between now and tomorrow, I would say 1-3”.

Alice
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Alice

I see the change

Roger
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Roger

Hutchinson has recorded more rain in the last 24 hours (0.48″) than in all of September (0.32″). However, all the forecasts of widespread 1-2 inch rainfalls did not verify. This has constantly happened since June 1st.

Kaden (Olathe)
Guest

Why isn’t the severe threat higher? We have humidity and heat.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

For the last two years, and now this year, Kansas has received several days of rain during the fall transition from Oct 1 – Oct 10. This year may be the lightest totals of the 3 years as there isn’t a true weather maker along this front as it sags through. I’m not believing in the flood watch, we have been in a flood watch for the past 32 hours and i could still pour a 5 lb bag of peanut mm’s in the cracks around my back yard so I’m not buying that. But anyhow, if the first 10… Read more »

Craig
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Craig

Though Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is unlikely, this brand new MD from the SPC is worth reading. There’s at least some possibility of larger hail and strong winds later today.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2054.html

Mike H
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Mike H

Just reviewed the last few of years of pattern transitions. Pretty cool. When you know what you’re looking for it’s really easy to spot the changes. I used the daily weather map, here’s the link. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20190312.html
That side alone has an incredible amount of information.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

That is great! Thanks.

Rich (east of Topeka)
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Rich (east of Topeka)

Thanks Mike H! That is exactly what I want to be able to really see the LRC at a snapshot level. Thanks again!

Farmgirl
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Farmgirl

Would like to see rain fall forecast for south of the metro.

dustin
Guest
dustin

TBH, it’s almost eerie looking at the projected models over the next week or two. I didn’t realize how familiar the weather pattern had become to me, and now, the models are starting to show something that just doesn’t feel right. The pattern I’ve grown so accustomed to just disappears after this weekend, and something new emerges. Sometimes I have doubts about the LRC, but moments like this definitely make me a believer.

Johnny
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Johnny

Where’s the discussion with this monstrosity storm coming and cold front? Must be in moderation

Zachary McNerney
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Zachary McNerney

Gary. I’m just a little confused. You say that we don’t have to join to see the insights. So does that mean I will still be able to read what the blog as it is now? Thank you. And again I’m really hoping everything sets up for a big year for snow. I will give a prediction based of nothi g more than an optimistic gut feeling. 41 inches!!!!! Thanks gary

Stl78(winona, mn)
Guest
Stl78(winona, mn)

Beautiful crisp fall day up here as we started in the 40s this morning. Finally, mon felt more like aug than late sept. Trees have really started changing up here. Hopefully we can enjoy some fall temps and not jump right into winter! Have a nice day!

Karen Arora
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Karen Arora

Heading up the bi-way on the 18th and staying in Winona, can’t wait to see the colors! Thanks for the update!

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Colors will be nearly done by 18th up there. Right ?

Stl78(winona, mn)
Guest
Stl78(winona, mn)

Thats late for peak up here yes but can still be very colorful depending on rain and wind.

Stl78(winona, mn)
Guest
Stl78(winona, mn)

Really? What brings u to winona?

Julia
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Julia

Once in awhile, would you please define the abbreviations used. (LRC, PNA, AO, NAO, MJO, etc.) Thank you.

Matt Matt
Guest
Matt Matt

LRC = Left-right-center
PNA = Psychiatric Nursing Assistant
AO = Area of Operations
NAO = I think is a singer…
MJO = Madden-Julian Oscillation

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

“The new pattern begins right around kickoff of the Chiefs/Indy game at Arrowhead.”

That’s rather precise, isn’t it?

Anyway I didn’t have to water my lawn once this year.

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

I’m think the LRC probably isn’t a Chiefs fan. LOL

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

I recorded 1.20″ up here in Maryville, MO this morning. Rained pretty hard, but no hail, very little wind. Have a great day Bloggers!
Michael

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

The cooler temperatures are so close, you can smell fall finally arriving. Pumpkin spice will be in the air, it will finally feel like football weather, the leaves may start their change process with cooler temps and less sunlight, and the new LRC is knocking on the door. The models as Gary mentioned are all over the place on the precipitation. It went from really wet to really dry and now it’s something in the middle. Therefore, the models will be right, because they have covered all scenarios. It’s Hump Day and tonight the hockey season begins! Have a great… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I knew I shouldn’t have cooked those Pumpkin Pancakes from Trader Joes this morning.