The Massive Change In the Weather Pattern Within One Week

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Good morning bloggers,

We have been sharing this incredible change in the weather pattern with many of you for almost two decades now.  The new LRC will begin within a week or so, and day one of the new LRC will happen in the next seven to eight days.  It is a massive change in the weather pattern as the old LRC finally ends and the new weather pattern, the one we will be experiencing in the 2019-2020 LRC year.  Kansas City finished this month of September with much above average rainfall with around 6.5″ of rain at KCI Airport.  So, we begin October with a very interesting weather pattern developing, but I warn you, please do not jump to conclusions on what this weeks pattern will mean for next winter, as the new LRC has not started yet. This next set up for mid-week is a hybrid weather set up between the two LRCs.

A strong slow moving cold front will be near Omaha, NE Tuesday, and thunderstorms will likely be lining up near that frontal zone.  Look at the temperature contrast, and look closely to near the USA/CANADA border near Montana.  That is 3° and 6° up there, while at the same time we are sitting over the southeastern half of the nation with another very warm and muggy air mass.

The severe weather risk on Tuesday:

The SPC does not even have a slight risk for Tuesday, at the moment.  Let’s see how this sets up on the new data.  We will look ahead to the rest of the week in tomorrow’s blog.

The Kansas City Chiefs & The New England Patriots

There are two undefeated teams left in the AFC, and one left in the NFC. The Chiefs, Patriots, and 49ers are the last three undefeated teams left.  New England won 16-10 at Buffalo, and the Chiefs beat the Lions 34-30 in a wild game in Detroit.  The 49ers had a bye week.  Patrick Mahomes took the Chiefs down the field with less than a minute to play and scored the game winning TD, somewhat New England style by running it in, and there was a 4th and 8 scramble up the middle by Mahomes to keep the drive alive, not to mention a couple other great plays by the MVP on that drive to get the Chiefs to the goal line.  The Chiefs 4-0 start includes three victories on the road, not an easy feat in the NFL.  The weather on Sunday night right now is looking good, but remember it is likely around day 1 of the new LRC, so let’s see how this pattern evolves in the next few days.

Thank you for sharing in this weather and sports experience.  Have a great day!

Gary

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Rich (east of Topeka)Numb3rsGuyf00dl3FTWMikeGary Recent comment authors
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FTWMike
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FTWMike

Good morning all, I just experienced the hottest and driest September on record here in DFW official rainfall was a trace.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Gary……. Florida and the Gulf have gotten by with hardly any tropical impacts thus far, certainly nothing close to a major hurricane. Do you see anything coming up in October, which is probably the final month of the hurricane season? I see a major hurricane popping up in the very long range GFS, but it’s too far out to count on.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

This looks like fun. I lived there for a few years:
https://twitter.com/NWSSpokane/status/1178417152614756352

f00dl3
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f00dl3

comment image

Dang. That’s one big anticyclone setup given that trough out west has stalled.

Dominic_De Soto
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Dominic_De Soto

What does that mean for us?

Rich (east of Topeka)
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Rich (east of Topeka)

2.15″ for the month of September at my location. Just missed the heavy rainstorms each time this month. .75 inches over the weekend. But the yearly total is still high at 50.25″.

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

River is coming back up in Leavenworth and Parkville. There are many places along the river here too that still have holes in the levee that haven’t been fixed yet.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

It’s amazing that there was only one day with below normal temperatures in September, and that was September 1. It’s also hard to believe that we haven’t had a single night yet dip into the 40’s… 54 is the lowest we have recorded. The normal low for today is 51, so you would think we would have had at least one night in the 40’s by now.

Jeff
Guest
Jeff

Wasn’t Saturday 9/28 below normal – or did it warm before midnight. In the northeast part of the extended metro where I live it was mid 60s all day.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

The 28th was 71 at 3:40 pm and 59 at 7:22 am, for a plus 2 above normal. Seems like a cool day but our normal readings have fallen so fast it is hard to keep up. It’s going to be a shock to the system when we finally get some really cool air in here. Time for those furnace checks!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

The LRC predicted a cool September but woe surface features be changin.

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=eax

EVERY SINGLE DAY since September 1st has been above normal, with the exception of the 13th which was spot on. September has been over 6 degrees above average, with today another obvious hot day.

Did you see those thundershowers yesterday? Total heat showers like we see in June/July, not September… :O

Michael
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Michael

The 1weather app predicted a cooler than what happened September. But apparently that is considered a negative comment. Yea, I know Gary said the LRC model didn’t predict that, and the app was human input.

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

Ready for fall here too! Everyone please also check out https://www.reddit.com/r/kcregionalwx/

f00dl3 has been posting regularly, up to 37 members. The more the merrier in terms of discussion.

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Awesome blog!

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

The last time Montana received this kind of snow this early was 1933, let’s hope the summers that followed in the central plains during 1934 & 1935 do not repeat!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I hope it’s a weird strange coincidence — as Gary says because we will “never see this again” that the map I put above looks kind of like a pattern that would cause that.

Ben
Guest
Ben

Is the bar continuously moved on when the new LRC sets up? Seems like I’ve seen September 25, October 1, and October 6 all on this blog at one time or another. Does it change from year to year or are you just unsure on the exact timing? Just curious

Brick
Guest
Brick

It changes so there is room for cover your (…), that way it can’t be wrong….pretty simple if you follow the blog…this way it can never be wrong

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

It has never changed in all the years I have been on this blog. It has always been the first week of October and rather than create your own facts, I would challenge anybody to find fact based evidence to prove otherwise. I don’t always agree with everything in this blog, but perception is not reality as seems to be the new societal norm

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Bring on the fall temps!!!! WOOT!!!!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Gary, Are you thinking that the bias to a stronger moisture/warm air return flow in our region caused by the majority of east cost trough or ridge patterns lately is the result of deeper surface level troughing over the inter mountain west, which may become a upper level feature of the new LRC once the surface trough gets caught in the flow and as shown by this weekend’s historical snow storm it already is, versus upper level ridging over the inter mountain west region for this part of the last LRC? If so, it’s going to be a warmer, wetter… Read more »

Dave from Shawnee
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Dave from Shawnee

f00dl3,

I love your analysis and I want to congratulate you on writing the two longest sentences to ever appear on the blog.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

lol…true that.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Yeah that did kind of run on, didn’t it…. :S

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

LOL!

Troy
Guest
Troy

For this Water Year (Oct 1 until now) I have had 54″ of moisture in NW Republic County which is about equal to 92-93 water year. Average is 30″ so not quite double our average.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

AO trending right around even while NAO has been negative but trending back to even as well… for what it’s worth as we begin the new LRC

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I am sooooo looking forward to cooler weather.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Here are my September rainfall totals for Maryville, MO. I recorded 8 rain events for a total of 7″. The biggest amount was on September 22nd with a measurement of 1.63″. The least was on the next day with .07″. I hope we miss these rains this week. We are way too saturated for anymore moisture! Have a great week Bloggers!
Michael

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Summer just won’t let go but change is just around the corner. It looks like this could possibly be the last gasp of summer. The GFS is showing fall like temperatures through the 16th. This is good for the fall lovers but if the precipitation trend continues, it may be bad for the river flooding. Without the summer heat the moisture does not get baked out of the soil as quickly and the opportunity for flooding increases. For those that have planted grass seed or sod, this is a welcomed change in temperature. Still no major cold air is showing… Read more »