Summer and Fall the Next 7 Days

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Good Sunday bloggers,

The wettest year ever recorded for KC was in 1961 when 60.25″ of rain occurred.

Officially we saw 2.34″ of rain yesterday and this takes the year total to 48.59″ which puts us at the 13th wettest year ever, so far. We have three more months to get 11.67″ of rain which would break the record. Now, it is harder to get heavy rain during the fall and winter, so we shall see. More rain is likely this week and it could bring us to top 10.

We have a big fall change on the way this week after more summer like days. Let’s go day by day.

We are starting with Tropical Storm Narda which is southwest of Mexico. Why? Well, this will add moisture to the fall change and may have an impact on our weather.

SUNDAY: We return to a summer like air mass with highs in the low to mid 80s. A south breeze 10-25 mph will help. A snowstorm will be ongoing in the northern Rockies and it is that colder air that will slowly head this way.

MONDAY: It is going to be a steam bath with highs getting close to 90°. Again, a south breeze at 10-25 mph will help.  It will be 35° in Billings, MT.

TUESDAY: We are still going to be very warm and humid as the fall change gets closer. 48° in Valentine, NE. Also, notice the very heavy rain and thunderstorms across the western Plains to northern Wisconsin. This is being enhanced by moisture from Tropical Storm Narda.

WEDNESDAY: The cold front is sagging through and our temperatures will drop from the 70s to 60s. Rain and thunderstorms will be increasing. The zone of rain still has the tropical connection.

THURSDAY: The band of rain may enhance for a time as the colder air seeps in. We will see temperatures in the 50s and 60s. If it rains more Thursday highs will be in the 50s. If the rain ends faster we will see highs in the 60s. Either way the fall change has arrived.

FRIDAY: Lows will likely be in the 40s for the first time this season. It is way overdue.

RAINFALL FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS: Another 1″ to 4″ of rain is not out of the question. This would mostly occur between Tuesday night and Thursday. These amounts would take us to a top 10 wettest year ever.

Have a great week and go CHIEFS!

Jeff Penner

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KS JonesJobuEmawRich (east of Topeka)anonymous Recent comment authors
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KS Jones
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KS Jones

“Some Beach”!
We are just inside the 5+” red zone outlined by the NWS in Topeka.
https://www.weather.gov/media/top/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf

KS Jones
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KS Jones

They changed that prediction quickly. Now we are supposed to get from 2 to 3”.

Emaw
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Emaw

1.25″ in Linn Valley this weekend all of which came last night and I agree 100% with Rich from east Topeka.

Rich (east of Topeka)
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Rich (east of Topeka)

LOVE the blog today Jeff! Thank you! I love how you give us the weather and break it down day by day with graphics and analysis. That’s what I like from a weather blog. Ever considered doing your own blog? In this style?

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I put a write up in r/kcregionalwx on my thoughts pointing to Gary’s thoughts on the 25th. Sorta somewhat similar but not really where I feel it at the surface here. Don’t get your hopes up for a freeze on the 12th – I think the first frost will be the front after that. With as much warm air that is holding on I would not be shocked if we had a November first freeze this year.

KirksvilleDave
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KirksvilleDave

3.90” in Kirksville for a three day total… August & the first part of September were dry up here – grass yellow, large cracks in the ground – even some trees changing color due to lack of moisture… not true now!

Dave C
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Dave C

What makes it a true fall front? What I don’t want to see happen is we get this cold front and 2 days later we are back in the 80’s. I realize it’s October this week, but this heat and humidity has overstayed it’s welcome by a few weeks

Frankie
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Frankie

GFS hinting at our first light freeze on Oct 12. It is a ways away, but a sign that the seasons are changing, as well as the LRC pattern. definitely encouraging that the transition week between the old and new LRC is cool and wet. Love it

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

So…the first week of the new LRC is wet and cool…like it.

Jobu
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Jobu

As Gary would say, the LRC is still setting up. Right now the old one is clashing with the new. We are still a few weeks away from the new LRC in control. 😉

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

3.7” total for this weekends storms. 1.5” from yesterday and last night. I know the models aren’t reliable but this mornings run has 2” of rain in the first 10 days of what would be the beginning of the LRC. Both GFS models have that. GO CHIEFS!!!

Johnny
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Johnny

But according to some people this is the dryest pattern ever

Kurt
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Kurt

Not the driest but certainly no records in jeopardy here. We’re a foot below where KCI is and only 4 or 5 inches above normal. I’d enjoy several more inches of rain. Keep it coming please

Roger
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Roger

Since June 1st, Hutchinson has only recorded 10.48″. The average is 14.34″. A deficit of 3.86″. So, no, it’s not a wet pattern here in parts of central/south-central/southwest Kansas.

Johnny
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Johnny

Well Hutchinson sucks

Roger
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Roger

Dude. Hutchinson, KS, has NOT been wet this month!!! We recorded 0.16 inches yesterday. That takes our grand total to 0.32″ for September! Our average for the month is 2.71″. Sure, it’s not 2012. But, it’s seriously dry here right now. SW Kansas is in D1 Drought for crying out loud! We sure could use a 2-4 inch soaker!

Backwoods4ever
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Backwoods4ever

3.7″ of rain last night in Tightwad. Came down hard.

Mike H
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Mike H

Vail CO Peak aspen color a couple of weeks late this year.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

1.7″ came in a hurry last night
Never thought I’d see a wetter year than 93′, but this has been!

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Thanks Jeff !
But the NWS says we got 2.33 inches yesterday. Which is it ?

“Kansas City picked up 4.32″ of rain in the past 36 hours (and we know others got a lot more!)…normal for an entire month of September is 4.62″. We just missed the daily record yesterday at KC when we picked up 2.33″ the record is 2.34″ set in 1988.”

Inspector
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Inspector

Thanks for the blog and lack of LRC propaganda

Zachary McNerney
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Zachary McNerney

Summers been sticking around but last year it was pushing 90 still around October 10th. Then it fell and stayed there. Hopefully no more runs at 90 after tomorrow

anonymous
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anonymous

Just watch the forecast change as we get closer to the end of the week. I am ready for a change, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see those forecast temps go from 60s and 70 to 70s and 80s. We just aren’t that lucky this year.