Major Snowstorm In Montana Likely

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Good morning bloggers,

A major, potentially historic snowstorm is going to develop this weekend near the USA/Canada border in Montana.

Snow does happen in September in this part of the USA, but this one will likely be extreme ifor this time of the year.  This storm will pull a front back to the north of Kansas City by Sunday afternoon, with yet another surge of high humidity as we go into the warm sector of this late weekend storm.  What is going to happen before then?  Thunderstorms are possible tonight and on Saturday.  We will likely be adding to the annual total which is currently over 13″ of rain above average.

I will go over the details of this pattern later this morning….I am in meetings until 10 AM, then I will catch up…..

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog.  Have a great day.

Gary

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Big JWillyInTopekaMr. PeteBrickSnow Miser Recent comment authors
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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Training echoes here in Prairie Village. Gonna rain all night.

Big J
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Big J

Went to Smithville homecoming, up 48-0 at half. Storm moved in and other team forfeited.
Smithville got deluged and hail for well over 2 hours.

5 miles west of town the drive was dry when we got home. What a blessing!! The gauge was empty!

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

Wasn’t this supposed to move north? Looking at this now, the KC metro is going to get several inches as these storms sit in the same area all night while anyone much west of KC and north of I70 is going to get basically nothing. Here in Topeka we’ve had about 1.50” this month and won’t see much of anything from this either. If anything storms appear to be moving south slightly

Big J
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Big J

Willy
Places like smithville, Kearney, etc got inches of rain tonight with large hail. Well north of I-70

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

Note I said people west and north of KC meaning northwest would be missed. Those places are north/northeast so makes sense that they got rain. My wording was just poor.

Big J
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Big J

Ok I gotcha. You are correct there. A few miles west of the Ville, we got nothing, you are correct. Unfortunately we did get .4 over night.

Any rain is terrible this time of year for the guys getting their crops out.

Brick
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Brick

As of 9:55 pm….6 of 67 replies are from Heat Miser… that’s 11% of all replies…👍

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

It’s really hairy out there right now.

Nimbus
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Nimbus

Here it comes…….. Give me some damaging winds, hail, lightning and torrential rain…. I love extreme weather

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Jobu- I was close to the same, 1.7″ just north of Liberty. Plus had golf ball size hail with a few pieces that were larger. I have a photo of one that I put next to a quarter and it dwarfed the quarter.

Jobu
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Jobu

1.72″ so far, Woodland Ave and Shoal Creek. KC Northland.

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

Topeka getting missed again too Kurt. Really need the rain to head north, very dry here all of September.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Willy it may still happen for you. I know it’s hard to do, but be patient. It looks like some development that could come your way.

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

I wish. Looking at radar makes me think the heavy rain is going to split to the north and south of us. There is a hole in the heavy rain headed right for us, around Council Grove currently, that doesn’t want to fill in.

Kaden (Olathe)
Guest

Tornado warning southwest of KC metro.

Brittany
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Brittany

Signature is weakening.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Getting ping pong to golf ball sized hail now. Not good.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I photographed some amazing clouds this evening.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Mr. Pete I did as well and some clouds with small rotation or lifting too. Have been getting hail off and on just north of Liberty for the past 30 minutes.

Kurt
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Kurt

Death to this lrc, I want some rain for my grass seed and we’re getting missed as of now. I’m ready for a better and wetter lrc, not just normal precipitation

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

this has been a very very wet year…you must not live in Lawrence or KC

Inspector
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Inspector

How do you not know that? This blog is your life

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

lol….yeaahhhh right…. a little projection there buddy? 😉

Inspector
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Inspector

Ok Robert Racy. You know I’m right!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

LoL…I don’t know what that means, but I hope you find happiness…you clearly don’t have that. 🙂

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Heat
You know Kurt lives in St Joe

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Didn’t remember, but thanks for the info. 😉

Inspector
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Inspector
Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Another tornado warning near Missouri/Iowa border. A lot of instability out there.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Heavy lightning just north of Liberty. Just some rain but not heavy yet here. Looks like near Smithville there is hail and much heavier rain. Glad they moved the games to yesterday and earlier today. They made the right call.

Kaden (Olathe)
Guest

Very interesting feature as Gary just pointed out if your watching him. Almost looks like the updraft of a forming tornado. Something to watch.

Jobu
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Jobu

Where was up updraft? I lost power during the weather.

Nimbus
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Nimbus

Went for our nightly 2 mile walk and I can say the Dew Point in my pants was noticeably higher tonight………….

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Tornado warning near the northeast corner of Missouri heading over to Illinois. plus ping pong ball sized hail with that storm.

Jobu
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Jobu

They had some dime sized hail and 1/2″ of rain this morning too. My parents live there. They were taking shelter, said loud thunder and constant lightning.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

That is forming fast and now warnings issued. Let the fun begin. It is headed my way.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Thunderstorm watch issued until 2 am

Three7s
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Three7s

Thunderstorm looks like it just popped up near KCI.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Looks like 8pm or so for development in KC area. Don’t give up yet, but with the sun setting already by then, it would minimize the severity of these storms. Did the SPC get it wrong once again for our area and hype this storm for no reason? Guess we’ll wait and see.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

At 5:20 PM that front is quieter than the Royals were this year.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Gary
Meetings must have gone overtime ?
Oh well it’s Friday night in the Big Town. Gerard will fill us in on air
Have a good weekend !
And GO CHIEFS !!

f00dl3
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f00dl3

HRRR has initiation at 01z, NAM 3KM has initiation 2230Z. Both NAM 3KM & HRRR have severe weather possible with 1-2″ rain overnight. GFS has spotty stuff and only 1/2″ in spots tonight. Gary says “Thunderstorms are possible tonight and on Saturday” Let’s see who’s right.

Inspector
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Inspector

Nowcast 2020

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
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Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

?

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Just wanted to post an update on the Monarch butterfly migration—we’ve had small groups showing up for the past ten days, but hundreds arrived today. This large group arrived a few days later than in other years (ordinarily on September 20th). They’re fluttering around throughout our yard, but are most numerous clinging to twigs on burr oak trees.

Brick
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Brick

There is a CHANCE there will be winners tomorrow in college football and a CHANCE there will be losers as well. I predict this chance will continue for the rest of the season….

J. R.
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J. R.

This has turned out to be the LRC website only – not the weather forecast for the area. We are supposed to have storms in a few hours – but no update at ALL.

I am sure we will get an update tomorrow on how his forecast fit the LRC, LOL.

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

I think he will update later. He normally wants to see what the latest models show. Nowcasting more or less, although the LRC should have this storm nailed down by now if we’ve seen this same cycle 6-7 times already since it set up last fall.

Jason
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Jason

Ever think maybe he is super busy? Has more going on than the blog? Give the guy a break

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

LRC will never be a tool to forecast precise thunderstorm initiation. Stop acting like the LRC is some sort of crystal ball that allows for perfect forecasting of even the most minutia details, it never has been and never will be. It could be used to tell us a front and storm system would be in play in this time frame, and the nitty gritty forecasting challenges would always be murky. Now, or 500 years from now, thunderstorms will always be a tricky phenomenon to predict

f00dl3
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f00dl3

So does the LRC tell you storms will not happen if you say storms are possible but the models are all pretty much assuring thunderstorms after 5-7 PM?

Craig
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Craig

Here’s a very helpful update from the SPC.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
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Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

What does sig severe mean?

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

It pretty much means we’re doomed.

Johnny
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Johnny

I hate the “storms are possible” feel like you should have a better read than that by now

Brick
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Brick

Will update tomorrow on today’s chances after storms have went through

Nate
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Nate

“Can’t rule out” is a good one too

Roger
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Roger

Drought Monitor. Not serious yet. But developing.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?KS

I won’t get worked up yet, but I feel in the pit of my stomach that things will deteriorate this Fall. I’m scratching my head too. Rains have been far more sporadic since June 1st.

LenexaGirl
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LenexaGirl

i really dont like montana

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

It doesn’t care for you either.

Brittany
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Brittany

I would just like to say that it is currently gross outside.

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

lol

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

There’s only five months until March.

Johnny
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Johnny

Lol what the hell does March have to do with anything

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Maybe he’s getting tired of counting down until Christmas?

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Beats another Christmas timeline update!

Brittany
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Brittany

But Christmas is the best time of the year!

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

There’s only 88 days until Christmas!

Bentley
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Bentley

I have a soccer game tonight at legacy in Lee’s Summit on grass fields. Gary, do you think it will get cancelled due to lightning or rainfall?

Three7s
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Three7s

I’d say there’s a pretty good chance it does.

Johnny
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Johnny

Yes

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

I have big concerns about this weekend’s tournament. Grass fields and the amount of rain doesn’t mix well. I imagine they will still try to play most games with just rain, but lightning will obviously be a show stopper. If it’s 6pm you may get it in, any later and all bets are off. With it being a tournament, I am guessing wet field conditions tomorrow will not cancel games because it’s all about the money. If it were regular season games, they would likely get cancelled to preserve the fields. My son has two games tomorrow and two on… Read more »

dustin
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dustin

If we’re putting any stock into the models, tonight will be dry.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Looks to be warm and dry west of Salina again, rain chances have dropped considerably for tonight and tomorrow, usually that means we won’t see a cloud. Also, looks like the midweek storm has been reduced to a shadow of it’s rainmaking self from the previous runs of the GFS. The big storm up near Canada will not influence our weather much as is dips south and then heads through northern Nebraska or SD. KC is still looking good for decent rain, but if KC is the epicenter of precipitation the shockwaves outside a 100 mile radius have all but… Read more »

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

According to the Weather Underground forecast, we will be going from highs in the 80’s early next week to highs in the 60’s late in the week.