Should They Have Moved Those High School Football Games

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Good morning bloggers,

Today, let’s look at the developing weather pattern over the USA, and discuss whether or not they should have moved those high school football games from Friday night to tonight.  Let’s begin with today’s weather pattern.

This map above shows the surface map valid at 1 PM central time today. High pressure is over Missouri this morning and temperatures dropped into the 50s. This weak high pressure area will be near the Mississippi River northwest of St. Louis by this afternoon and the winds will be returning to the southeast.  A warm front is located over Oklahoma and Arkansas and this will surge north an fall apart tonight. The high humidity will flood back into Kansas and Missouri tonight and Friday, and then this set up develops by Friday evening:

A front will be stalling, and  drifting south on Friday.  It will extend from the Texas Panhandle northeast to just south of Chicago.  With the high humidity surging north, dew points near 70 degrees again, we are expecting a risk for some severe weather, flooding, and thunderstorms.  This is why some of the high schools moved their football games from Friday night to Thursday night.  I say, why not, even if it ends of dry Friday evening. The risk is there, and they aren’t huge events.  I would not recommend moving a Chiefs game based on a weather forecast two days before.  But, a high school football game? When the weather is so beautiful today, then I think they made the right decision. What do you think?  Many of the schools, most of the high schools did not move their games, so let’s see how many get impacted by lightning.  My news department kept saying they moved the games due to a severe weather risk, but it is really the lightning risk that is the largest reason.

Mid-Next Week Set-Up:

The LRC will be in full transition within a week, and this next front is finally looking very different to me.  It is in the transition where the old LRC is still alive, and the new LRC is beginning to form.  So, let’s see how it sets up.

Tornado Watches in 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2019

Would you have ever guessed that Maryville, MO, northern Missouri and southern Iowa has yet to have a tornado watch this year.  Well, look closely, they haven’t.  Wow!  Not they have had a few severe thunderstorm watches.  I find this fascinating.

Tradewx.com

This map below is a screenshot from Tradewx.com.  Weather2020 is the featured meteorologist for Tradewx.com.  The forecast for Buffalo has $149.25 in contracts right now, and if you join, you can purchase a contract for $2.o0 right now.  When it is 7 days away, the contracts are $1.00, and when you get within one day it is $2.50.  Go give it a try. When you register, they give you $10 to purchase contracts, so it is free to join.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog.  Have a great day.

Gary

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Andrew Hf00dl3GaryJustinSnow Miser Recent comment authors
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f00dl3
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f00dl3

Man it’s the battle of the HRRR vs the NAM right now for timing. HRRR says things hold off until 02z / 7 PM. NAM says things fire around 23z / 4 PM. Those 3 hours make a world a difference for me as I bike ride at that time. Gary – do you think it will hold off ’till 7 or 4 PM initiation?

Andrew H
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Andrew H

On sports radio Gary said most likely after 7

Roger
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Roger

Just move all the football games to Hutchinson, KS. We have only received 0.16″ of rain this month.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

lol. I’ll say this about Hutch, if anyone gets moisture in central Kansas its usually Hutch, so definitely surprising it’s been that dry.

Roger
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Roger

2 inches below normal this month. 3 inches below normal in July. Almost 1 inch below normal in June. April was 2 inches below normal until the last 3 days. Almost 1 inch below normal in March. Been kind of crazy to be so dry here.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

This is interesting and close.

comment image

EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)
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EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)

lol, let’s break the earliest snowfall record by three days again

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I’m for that!

Frankie
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Frankie

For the record, I’ve been seeing the long term Euro ensemble models give us snow before Halloween. Been consistent now, I believe 8 of them have snow now. But the long term ensembles usually aren’t gospel so we will see. Definitely colder air showing up tho…

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Hey guys I know this looks awesome but anyone else notice that the cold front that Gary said was our “Massive Pattern Change” looks a LOT weaker now – like may not even below 50F in some spots? And it’s lagging now 2 days behind what we saw it showing 2 days ago.

comment image

We can look at long range ensambles and 360 hour forecast maps all we want but until I see some consistency I don’t buy it.

Johnny
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Johnny

Low 50s sound really nice right now

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Yeah but yesterday it showed us in the 37-42 range, the day before 30-32 range, the day before 46-47 range, day before 42-44 range. All over the place, totally unreliable. Low 50s isn’t really a major pattern change, it’s what the cold front did last time through. The one we got to watch is 2 fronts after this, because that dropped us to record lows before. If you believe the LRC, then you know that we can’t have a cold front around the 11-15 because we have a new pattern – but if you believe the surface features develop like… Read more »

blue flash
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blue flash

The current policy for most high schools is that if lightning is detected within 10 miles, play is suspended and the stadium is evacuated. We had one game last year where there was a thunderstorm that came within 10 miles…..you could see the dark clouds in the distance and an occasional rumble of thunder, but it was never even cloudy at the high school. No rain but a delay of over an hour while we waited for the storm to move on. It can make for a very frustrating and long evening of waiting. So I applaud the move.

DaveC
Guest
DaveC

I understand the move for Grain Valley, this weekend is Homecoming and there are a lot of non-football events that are occurring before and during the game, so I think if it was just a football game they probably would have kept it on for Friday.

Justin
Guest
Justin

DaveC, back when I went to school there (it’s been 20 years now), the Homecoming game was on Saturday, preceded by the parade, and the dance was that evening. I live next to the high school off Eagles Pkwy in Cross Creek. I might have to venture outside to listen to the game. I’m usually wherever Odessa is playing on Friday’s so this is the first game I’ll be home for.

Farmgirl
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Farmgirl

Of course if is going to rain over the weekend, that is the pattern. Now that we are in to fall events such as the OP Fall Fest, the pattern can’t change soon enough for me. I just hope it is not a snowier pattern. LOL! I try to be careful what I wish for. Ha!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I say move the games – I mean, why not, the weather is awesome today!

Roguewar
Member
Roguewar

Gary, In yesterday’s blog entry you said you would be covering the weekend forecast today, but you really only talk about Friday night. With the MS 150 going on all day Saturday and Sunday this weekend, what are your thoughts on rain amounts and timing?

Jim
Guest
Jim

Google “nowcasting”.

Nimbus
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Nimbus

I love your LRC and it represents some very creative thinking. Proof is in the pudding as it has been pretty darn good. Much better than your standard evening news weather guessologist. Have you hypothesized or written about that there may be longer wave patterns that influence the year to year pattern?. The universe is clumpy and I was wondering if you think there might be a more fundamental driver lumping like patterns together over time. Put another way, in the short 20+ year timeframe you have been observing the year to year patterns are you seeing any cycling anomalies… Read more »

Curtis
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Curtis

There is an event (www.nopw.org) at the Kansas Speedway Saturday evening. Weather is looking a little rainy/stormy that evening. What is everyone else’s take?

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

I agree they should have moved them. Most high school facilities do not have the proper sheltering locations for lightning. Plus, not that they can’t play in rain, but the risk of injury increases with sloppy fields.

Today we have matching sunrise and sunset times. Exactly 12hrs of daylight today.

It’s 5 weeks to Halloween and 9 weeks to Thanksgiving. The holidays are quickly approaching.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

It’s September!?!
Do You Christmas people really have to remind me every day when Christmas is?
Ps….bah humbug

😉

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

I don’t think I mentioned Christmas, just Halloween and Thanksgiving.

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

Gary, Over your years with the LRC, do you happen to see patterns return on a regular schedule? Are there parts of the patterns that may play into a new pattern? I know there are a lot of conditions that play into the dominating pattern, but after reading your thoughts over the last couple of years, I think there is more to the puzzle. Is it that you can reliably predict that the 2018-2019 pattern will return in 3, 5, or 8 years? Has that ever occurred to you looking at the LRC? I’m sure you can speak about weather… Read more »

Zachary McNerney
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Zachary McNerney

First. and again love ya Gary. You probably get tired of hearing it, but I really hope everything sets up for another big winter for kc. I will try to speak it into existence.