A Massively Changing Weather Pattern Is Showing Up

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Good morning bloggers,

The sun set at the North Pole yesterday, and it was likely finally the beginning of something different beginning to happen.  The weather pattern is cycling and regularly according to the LRC.  From around October 5th to November 30th the weather pattern becomes established and the first cycle of next years pattern will begin. Right now, between the Autumnal Equinox and October 5th it is twilight at the North Pole, and the pattern is likely in a massive transition.  It was identified as nearly 100% the same pattern as of this past weekend, and the rainfall pattern that just happened was still similar to what has been happening in the past year. Something new may finally be showing up.

This surface map is valid Friday night. There are some new things happening over North America, but this is the transition period. This is not the new weather pattern, so as I have clearly shown over the past 20 years or so, when you jump to conclusions on what is happening in these next two to three weeks, then you will likely be wrong. So, just be patient and watch it set up.  There is a cold front that will be extending from southern Canada to near KC by Friday evening with a chance of thunderstorms. There is a weaker system approaching tonight with a chance of some thunderstorms as well.  There is also a pretty cold air mass forming in western Canada that will be monitored for a strong cold front next week.  Some of the models have a freeze over parts of Nebraska and Iowa in the first week of October, so let’s monitor this closely.

There is a fairly deep trough forecast to form in the upper levels of the atmosphere by Sunday.

The new data is rolling in, and already a bit different.  There are some big change in progress. Right now a few showers have formed on the south side of KC.  I will have more time later to check in. Have a great day.

Gary

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Big JHockeynut69JobuGaryEastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now) Recent comment authors
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Big J
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Big J

20% chance of rain, oh make that 80%. The forecast changes faster than the stock market. I chose to side with the NWS and won. No rain here.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Those storms to our north and northwest mean business. Tornado warnings in Iowa. Going to possibly be a noisy night tonight. Glad I mowed today. The grass is grow quick these days.

Big J
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Big J

I would have mowed, but chose to believe the forecast from yesterday. Fortunately the NWS was correct, no rain here.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Looks like you will be able to mow today or tomorrow. The model that was presented showed our area getting these storms around 3-4am. I saw other models that had these fizzling for us and only affecting those well northeast of the metro. Those models were more accurate with this storm. That’s the nature of the beast I guess. All models have a certain amount of data and the in house models for each station are only as good as the data or the inputs that are entered based on that station’s interpretation of what they think will happen. Some… Read more »

Big J
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Big J

Yeah, the NWS has very little chance of rain and nailed it. I feel very fortunate. Hoping everything fizzles for the weekend as well.

Brent
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Brent

Gary, out of curiosity, with your theory of the new pattern setting up coinciding with the sun setting over the North Pole, have you observed what happens in the southern hemisphere? If true, I would assume the southern hemisphere would have a new pattern set up in March when the sun sets over the South Pole?

EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)
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EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)

The “setup date” would be April 2-3 area.

Jobu
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Jobu

Just an FYI – it has snowed massive amounts over average in the mountains of the S.H. this year. 🙂

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Looks like some showers are working their way up from the South/Southwest. I thought the timing for our area was to be much later. Was really hoping this would wait until overnight. We’ll see what happens.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Gary, perhaps in contrast to what the NOAA suggests, the GFS in the long range Oct 5 – 10, when the LRC starts, has a huge ridge developing over the southwest. Am I seeing that correctly? Ahem, that would not bode well as a first indicator. Have you looked at this?

Johnny
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Johnny

What does it mean if a ridge develops down there

Craig
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Craig

Cold and a dry wintertime NW flow.

Troy
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Troy

The Euro Ensembles have a ridge developing again in the SE with a pattern more similar to today for that time. Hard to say 2 weeks out.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

NOAA 3 month forecast issued on Sept. 19th shows the western half of Kansas as one of the few areas with an higher than average chance of seeing above average precipitation. It boggles the mind because that seems highly unlikely from a historical perspective. Looking at the first 10 days of October, again this year it looks like above average rainfall, but the bulls eye on the NOAA map is the four corners of SD/MN/NE/IA and from there dipping into northeastern Kansas. For the last two years regardless of the LRC eventual outcome we have had very wet conditions in… Read more »

Craig
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Craig
f00dl3
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f00dl3

This is actually not the first time we’ve seen this forecast cold front. Nor the 2 after it.

Troy
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Troy

You are right about that. However this time the Euro is more on board with the GFS than last time. It is also inevitable that eventually the cold air will get strong enough it will punch on through.

Frankie
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Frankie

GFS continues to send us into cold fall air the first week of Oct… One day had 58/37! We are so close to fall weather, so close to the new LRC.

Nate
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Nate

When is the first freeze forecasted?

Johnny
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Johnny

Come on fall!

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

92 Days till Christmas! LOL!
Michael

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I approve of that comment. Except that it’s really 91 days.