Best Weather Forecaster Of The Month & The First Day Of Fall

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Good morning bloggers,

Welcome to fall. Something amazing happened earlier this morning.  The sun set at the North Pole.  It is still twilight for another two weeks or so, and this is when the new LRC begins setting up.  As fall begins, we finally have some slightly cooler air expanding out over the United States.  Before we look into the developing fall pattern, take a look at the entries from the contest that ends today.  I would like to thank everyone for participating in this contest, and we announce the winner below:

So, my prediction range using the LRC is 8.25″ to 11.o0″, which is that 150 to 200 percent of average.

Rainfall So Far At KCI Airport:

  • August 15:  0.26″
  • August 16:  0.81″
  • August 17:  0.72″
  • August 18:  0.52″
  • August 21:  0.09″
  • August 22:  0.03″
  • August 25:  0.97″
  • August 26:  1.44″
  • August 29:  1.56″
  • August 30:  0.77″
  • September 7:   0.43″
  • September 8:  0.04″
  • September 12:  0.83″
  • Friday, September 20:  0.01″
  • Saturday, September 21:  0.24″
  • Sunday, September 22:  0.91″

Final Total:   9.63″ which is 175% of average, and this is right down the middle of our prediction made 41 days ago.  The WINNER is Mr. Pete!  Pete, you did it, and congratulations.  Mr. Pete is the BEST WEATHER FORECASTER of the month!

The Late-Week Weather Pattern:

Major changes in the overall weather pattern will be taking place in response to a strengthening jet stream.  The jet stream is created by temperature contrast, and as the colder air masses begin forming over Canada, the temperature contrast will increase and the jet stream will strengthen. This means that storm systems will get stronger and stronger as winter approaches.  This map above shows a strong storm forecast to form over the United States by this weekend.  Look at that area of snow.  The Gulf of Mexico will again be tapped, and warm moist air will be flowing north all the way into the USA/Canada border by Saturday.  We are currently in, what is sometimes called, “The Second Severe Weather Season”.  This second season is rarely very active, but there are severe weather set ups similar to spring at least once or twice each early fall before the colder air masses take over.  Depending on the weather pattern, there are also occasional severe weather set ups during the late fall and winter as well. This current developing pattern will be monitored closely for any severe weather potential as the conditions seem to be coming together at times in the next week.

If you have joined Tradewx.com and set up your account, you will be able to make contract purchases for high temperatures, low temperatures, and for precipitation at many locations around the nation. We will be providing our LRC insights on this blog each week.  For today, the challenges will be on the warmer temperature surge for low temperatures and high temperatures later this week, and then for precipitation amounts.  Look for higher low temperatures east of the Rockies to Chicago as we move into this weekend with that Gulf of Mexico moisture surge.

For Kansas City, today’s weather will be nearly perfect. The EOI (Eat Outside Index) will be nearly a 10 with light winds and 78°.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog, featuring Tradewx.com and the LRC.  Here is the link to the insights page, and you can use our LRC insights to help you make your trades on the site.  Have a great day!

Gary

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anonymousf00dl3L.BUrbanityJack in Atchison Recent comment authors
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L.B
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L.B

Sounds to me like the LRC is a great tool! I am starting to hear the scientists that say climate change is not near as bad as people are making it out to be. You may be on to something bigger than you ever imagined! Mr. Lezack

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

Hello everyone! It has been a little while! I was looking ahead to next week and there is going to be a trough forming with a high in southeastern states.. this will put the central planes in position to be have high temps and high dew points with potential disturbances moving our area along the boundary between the trough and the high pressure.. GFS gives us 2-4 inches of rain during the middle of next week… something to watch.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Get those winter coats ready!
comment image

Weather here is crazy. Spring and fall are very short, you practically go from summer to winter and then winter to summer.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Lol, last Thursday the GFS had highs in the 50’s on Sept 29th, today, high of 92 over central KS. What a joke!

anonymous
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anonymous

We aren’t going to see any days with lows like this for a LONG time and then it will be pretty short lived. Feels like a pretty mild winter followed by a HOT summer in the next LRC year.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

18z GFS. Who’s ready for modelitus????!! lol.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

And so it begins..

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Picked up 2.6″ between Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon, capped off with a heavy thunderstorm to finish it off around 4pm yesterday. Got creek running good again, it had become somewhat dry during September so this was welcomed. Hoping October is nice and we can salvage some decent weather out of fall, its been so hot lately!

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Ned Yost retiring at end of season. No surprise. He had a life-threatening injury.

What a beautiful day it is outside !! Can finally breathe some refreshing air !

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

He nearly died in 17′, I was surprised he made it back at all! He didn’t have to come back, but I’m very glad he did to get these younger Royals a good start. I think he’s set us up for a second run at a championship in the next couple of seasons, KC is so lucky to have had him!

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Amen to that Hume ! We were very lucky to have had him. I think after that injury he just seemed like his heart wasn’t in it anymore, time away from home and family. Interviews and just seeing him looking over the dugout railing seemed different from past years. But he sure gave us a helluva ride !!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

A 2nd run at a championship with this team that gave us 100 losses this year? Are you being serious?

Roger
Guest
Roger

— “I’ll go with 8.95″ in KC, but only 4.39″ in Hutchinson, the nearest big town near me.”

KC: 9.63″
Hutchinson: 3.61″

Difference:
KC: 0.68″ above
Hutchinson: 0.78″ below

Not too bad I guess.

Roger
Guest
Roger

Since June 1st in Hutchinson

Normal: 13.54″
Actual: 10.32″

3.22″ below normal.

Dan T
Guest
Dan T

Is the system brining the rare Enhanced Risk over Arizona setup today still the old LPC or being influenced by the developing new pattern?

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Gary
So on the blog at tradewx will your insight writeups be daily ? ( above you say each week )

Congratulations Mr Pete !!

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Congrats Mr. Pete! I wish we would do this stuff more often. Makes the blog even better than it is already! Have a great Monday Bloggers!
Michael

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones
Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Gary, if I had to guess at next years LRC from what changes I perceive to be happening already, I would say for this year the northern plains look to receive the heavier precipitation. Very warm in the southern and central plains and much drier for most areas, except northern Missouri. Rain/snow will be few and far in between, but with three significant winter events, summer hot and dry. Obviously there is no merit behind my assumptions, but the last 3 months where I live this is what I have seen, and then to have this last precipitation event not… Read more »

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

It sure feels like fall out there right now

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

The first day of fall is here and the temperatures are refreshing. Last night I went for a walk and it felt great. It was still a bit humid but the NW wind and cooler temperature made for great walking conditions. My yard has really bounced back due to the rain and the care that I give it. The GFS is very bullish with rain in the next few weeks. The Legacy system takes it farther north into Iowa. The streams and rivers are going to be rising for sure regardless if it is north of us or right over… Read more »

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Congrats Mr Pete!

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

Thanks for the blog Gary. Here in Topeka we only picked up a few tenths over the weekend so it continues to be very dry. Really need the rain this week. On your $10/month blog will you be doing blogs/forecasts that extend west to Topeka/Manhattan or other areas? Your forecast for this weekend was dead on for KC metro but our local Mets in Topeka missed this one and we ended up getting pretty much completely missed somehow. Would be nice to have access to your forecasts here a bit further west.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Hi Willy! Just a bit east of you we got .7 inches. So we got a bit more than you did, but not as much as others. Have a great day!