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Good Sunday bloggers,

The weather is quite active on this last day of summer and we are looking at a fantastic first day of fall. There will be many weather transitions before fall arrives at 2:50 AM.

There are two main weather features to track before fall arrives. The first is a well defined disturbance tracking in from the southwest. Rain and a few thunderstorms, very heavy at times with flash flooding possible, will occur with this system. After it moves by around 10 AM, it will take the widespread heavy rain with it.

The second weather feature is a cold front. This will cross the region between 2 and 5 PM bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Look at the temperatures behind the front. Yes, we could see upper 40s and low 50s by Monday morning.

SUNDAY 3 PM: The cold front will be near Arrowhead towards the end of the game. So, it will be quite wet for tailgating, but during the game there will be some nice periods and some very heavy downpours and some lightning. Temperatures will warm to the low and mid 70s ahead of the front. Then, temperatures will drop to the 60s this evening under a mostly cloudy sky as the front moves away. The rain chances will end with the passage of the cold front.

As of 7 AM we have seen between .50″ and 2″ of rain. Most locations will see a new 1″-2″ of rain today bringing storm totals to 1″-4″ which we have been forecasting.

MONDAY 7 AM: The first fall morning will feel like it. Look at the lows in the low to mid 50s, with upper 40s across northeast Kansas and northern Missouri.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: A surface high pressure will drift across the region making for a very nice first day of fall. It will be sunny with lower humidity and almost no wind. Highs will be in the 70s.

GO CHIEFS!

Have a great week ahead.

Jeff Penner

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f00dl3WillyInTopekaEmawInspectorHeat Miser Recent comment authors
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Emaw
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Emaw

1.1″ in Linn Valley. Heat Miser, get yourself a rain gage man!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

I thought it was going to be a rainy weekend in Lawrence, but it was dry all day Sat, all evening Sat night, and all day Sunday. We got some rain overnight Sat….really late, but I dont think it was that much.

Inspector
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Inspector

Please tell me you got out of the house and off the computer once this weekend.

Big j
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Big j

Got 1.8 from the whole system, all excess, west of the Ville. But looks like we were lucky compared to 3-4 inches others got. Glad we didn’t get what the NWS predicted. And only half of the prediction on this blog from yesterday. What a swamp of a year. Feel bad for the farmers.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Another half inch from a storm about 30 minutes ago. I think I am done with the precipitation this weekend. Grand total of 3.54”. The cold front is now pushing through and winds are out of the Northwest. Going to feel refreshing later this evening and tomorrow. Great win for the Chiefs! Defense is still a bit suspect and staying healthy is essential. The Royals lose another 100 + games. Really thought they would at least win 70 this year.
Maybe next year. Bring on fall!!!

Frankie
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Frankie

Big cold front being forecast by the GFS in about a week or so. Hope it materializes, the heat is getting old.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

It’s dudded out – but watch the one 2 notable fronts after that around Oct 15!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Are you sure we are going to get storms between 2-5? It sure looks quiet on radar.

Jobu
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Jobu

Which radar are you viewing? Look at KSHBs. Storms firing up down South.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Accuweather. What you are seeing is the the tail end of the previous batch…that looks to barely clip S. KC. Gary showed thunderstorms all over the whole area.

Kaden (Olathe)
Guest

A pretty strong front is being picked up by October 2nd. Maybe some severe weather with it too?

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

3.4 in Independence.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Got a bit over 3.5” here (25 miles north of Manhattan), but none the radar-indicated estimates show that much fell in this region. Our ytd total is now 44.25”

Troy
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Troy

3.75 in republic co. Only rain in sept for us so its welcome.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

We got 0.25” on September 9th, and that was all we’d had since August 30th until the storm hit at 11:20 PM last night. The water level on Tuttle Creek Reservoir is rising again. It is expected to go 3’ higher by Wednesday, and it is currently 36’ above normal pool level. Our County road through the valley has been under water since March 14th (presently 19’ under water), and it looks like we’ll be living on our private peninsula for several more weeks (if not months). Despite the 3/4 mile trek over the bluffs through our pasture to access… Read more »

Ryan Johnson
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Ryan Johnson

3.8 total in Grain Valley

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Tomorrow afternoon weather looks sensational. I believe I will go fishing.

Nate
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Nate

High and Dry right after a frontal passage…worst time for fishing

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Based on your response, I still plan to go. Thank You Sir.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

I do want to say that at least for my area and much of the immediate metro, I thought the forecast from all of the local meteorologists was spot on. The rainfall amounts, timing of rain, and the breaks in rain were pretty much right on schedule. For me, I give them an A+ for this weekends storms! Have a great Sunday everyone!

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

High temps about a week from now are showing back up in the high 80’s and near 90°. That’s bad news if you’re a fall color lover like me. Expect color to be considerably less vibrant and very late this year. The best color comes from a cycle of chilly nights followed by sunny days. With lows on the extended forecast still showing as upper 50’s we may not see much color this year until November, if not mid-November. When it does come it will be short lived.

MMike
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MMike

Hi Willy,

Sunlight, or actually lack of sunlight due to our decreasing day light hours during the fall season is the single most important factor involved in the fall color change. Light is required for chlorophyll production,

I’m sure cooler temps may help, but the loss of light is the main driver.

The Sept. drought west of Liberty is over! 2.34 inches of beautiful rain. And now, the rain has moved out, just in time for the Mahomes show.

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

This is not really true. If it were, trees would change the same day give or take every year on a set schedule and it would be very predictable, just like the sunrise and sunset. The fact that trees change as early as the beginning of October or as late as mid-November depending on the year is a good example of how big a difference temperature makes. Daylight is a factor in color but really doesn’t impact the timing as it is the same every year, so other variances determine the more exact timing of when they change.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

I’ve read that how wet its been is a big factor in how vivid the color change is

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka
JoeK
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JoeK

global climate change has an impact on Everything…..according to the experts. If kids misbehave, must be global warming, if auto accidents increase..global warming. If the chiefs dont win the superbowl….global warming.Global warming now causes, excessive drinking, obesity, bad decisions, blue skies and grey, dogs and cats living together, basic masss hysteria! 😀 what is mankind to do?

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

JoeK I think you are failing to grasp an elementary concept. The article is about the impact of climate change on the fall season. You turned that around and made a fool of yourself trying to say everything gets blamed on global warming when that’s not true. Is it crazy to think climate change will also change something directly related to the seasons, like fall color? Just because you don’t believe it doesn’t mean climate change isn’t happening before our eyes. So what, you think there’s a group of scientists across the world all collaborating to create some big lie… Read more »

JoeK
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JoeK

Willy, First and foremost, notice the smiley face? there was a bit of sarcasm to my response and for the record, I agree the climate is changing, always has and always will, but you cannot deny the fact that too many sources/individuals have begun to use climate change as a money grab and attention getter….Also, the majority of my family are all in various fields of science and engineering so I get any opinions and facts from reliable sources, not from an overwhelming number of half baked articles on the internet nor biased opinions depending on which side of the… Read more »

JoeK
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JoeK

Willy,

Almost forgot, if you know or talk to actual climate scientists, many of them feel the same, They believe the issue has been politicized and muddied by special interest groups ( on both sides) and is losing merit as a result. I know, I live with one of them so if you do not know any, rather than follow articles, talk to people in the field

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

Fair enough, sorry I misinterpreted your post. Carry on and good evening sir!

J-ox
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J-ox

NW Lawrence: 1.7″ thus far from this weekend’s rain event.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

From Accuweather :
“Today is the last day of summer with fall officially kicking off at 3:50 a.m. EDT Monday. This is the latest start to fall since 2015”

Nate
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Nate

Nobody going to church in boats around here in Lees Summit

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

I had 2.4” in the rain gauge at 7am, just north of Liberty since yesterday. Still adding to those totals and expecting another 1-2”. Going to throw a roast in the crockpot today and enjoy this lazy day and hopefully watch a Chiefs victory! Looking forward to the cooler temperatures tonight and a beautiful first day of fall. Go Chiefs!!!

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

Not even two tenths here in North Topeka. How did this miss us? Extremely disappointing, it was already dry and going to be even more so now. Maybe everyone else got the rain they needed, but we barely even got anything.

phtransplant
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phtransplant

To be fair, I would guess the huge majority of folks on this blog are from areas closer to or in the KC metro. And it certainly did not miss us. I for one would gladly send the water west if possible. Been miserable for many folks here this year with flooded basements, erosion, and many cancelled outdoor activities.

Stl78(winona, mn)
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Stl78(winona, mn)

Not all, i moved to kc in 05 and lived there for 10 yrs but now live in Minnesota and still follow the blog

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

Phtransplant- good point and I agree it seems to have hit the KC metro area (mostly) as advertised. To be fair though, this was advertised as a very widespread 1-4” and we didn’t even get 20% of the lowest range. That’s a valid disappointment, especially given how hot and dry September as been, and makes me think this system did not pan out completely as expected. Mostly curious what went wrong?

Roger
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Roger

I’ve only recorded 0.16 inches this month near Hutchinson. April and July were also extremely dry here. May has been the only extremely wet month this year. June was a little below average too. Thankfully August was a little above normal.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

You ll get more rain when the cold front comes thru

Brick
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Brick

Thanks Gary Jr.!

Johnny
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Johnny

Nice prediction on the chiefs loss