Good Saturday bloggers,
We are in for a wet weekend and the weather does not seem to care about outdoor events, such as the Plaza Art Fair and the Chiefs home opener.
A very large Flash Flood watch, extending from Milwaukee, WI to Wichita, KS is in effect for tonight and Sunday. If you see water flowing over the road, it’s really simple. “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.”
Today we are tracking a series of disturbances from Baja, CA. Each time one of these disturbances go by the showers and thunderstorms will increase and then the rain decreases as the disturbance moves by. This may happen 2-3 times today. Also, we are tapping moisture from Hurricane Lorena, so the atmosphere has no shortage of water.
Tonight and Sunday will see the line of disturbances shift east as the main system and a cold front move across the Plains from the Rockies. This will generate a 12-18 hour period of widespread rain and thunderstorms, very heavy a times.
SATURDAY NOON: Showers and thunderstorms will be likely as we see the disturbances moving in from the southwest. Highs will be in the 70s with a south wind at 15-25 mph.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: The trail of disturbances will shift east after 2-3 PM and we may see a bit of a break until the main show arrives after 10 PM. Now, we can’t say it will be totally dry from 3-10 PM, but the rain coverage appears to be lower. If it is, it may not be that bad of an evening, mild and breezy. The severe threat is higher well to the west where the main thunderstorms start to form.
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER 10 PM: This is when we get into the very heavy and more widespread rain and thunderstorms. The threat of severe weather is low, but if we get any severe weather, the main threat is strong winds.
SUNDAY MORNING: We will be in the rain and thunderstorms with very heavy downpours. It is going to be a wet tailgate. Temperatures will be around 70.
SUNDAY NOON: At this time it looks like heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely around kick off.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: This data has the rain ending 2-4 PM, which means a soggy Chiefs game. The rain will not end until the main system and front move by. Could it end faster? Sure, but we will not know this until tomorrow morning. Now, it could end slower as well.
RAINFALL FORECAST: All locations should see 1″ to 3″ of rain with a zone of 3″-6″ of rain. The zone looks to be around I-70, but could still shift north or south by 50 miles. The rain will last 12-18 hours, but there will be periods where the rainfall rate is 2″-3″ per hour and this is when the flash flooding can occur.
Fall begins at 2:50 AM Monday and it will be a nice day with highs in the 70s after lows in the 50s.
Have a great weekend.