Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are in for a wet weekend and the weather does not seem to care about outdoor events, such as the Plaza Art Fair and the Chiefs home opener.

A very large Flash Flood watch, extending from Milwaukee, WI to Wichita, KS is in effect for tonight and Sunday. If you see water flowing over the road, it’s really simple. “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.”

Today we are tracking a series of disturbances from Baja, CA. Each time one of these disturbances go by the showers and thunderstorms will increase and then the rain decreases as the disturbance moves by. This may happen 2-3 times today. Also, we are tapping moisture from Hurricane Lorena, so the atmosphere has no shortage of water.

Tonight and Sunday will see the line of disturbances shift east as the main system and a cold front move across the Plains from the Rockies. This will generate a 12-18 hour period of widespread rain and thunderstorms, very heavy a times.

SATURDAY NOON: Showers and thunderstorms will be likely as we see the disturbances moving in from the southwest. Highs will be in the 70s with a south wind at 15-25 mph.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: The trail of disturbances will shift east after 2-3 PM and we may see a bit of a break until the main show arrives after 10 PM. Now, we can’t say it will be totally dry from 3-10 PM, but the rain coverage appears to be lower. If it is, it may not be that bad of an evening, mild and breezy. The severe threat is higher well to the west where the main thunderstorms start to form.

SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER 10 PM: This is when we get into the very heavy and more widespread rain and thunderstorms. The threat of severe weather is low, but if we get any severe weather, the main threat is strong winds.

SUNDAY MORNING: We will be in the rain and thunderstorms with very heavy downpours. It is going to be a wet tailgate. Temperatures will be around 70.

SUNDAY NOON: At this time it looks like heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely around kick off.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: This data has the rain ending 2-4 PM, which means a soggy Chiefs game. The rain will not end until the main system and front move by. Could it end faster? Sure, but we will not know this until tomorrow morning. Now, it could end slower as well.

RAINFALL FORECAST: All locations should see 1″ to 3″ of rain with a zone of 3″-6″ of rain. The zone looks to be around I-70, but could still shift north or south by 50 miles. The rain will last 12-18 hours, but there will be periods where the rainfall rate is 2″-3″ per hour and this is when the flash flooding can occur.

Fall begins at 2:50 AM Monday and it will be a nice day with highs in the 70s after lows in the 50s.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

46
Leave a Reply

avatar
18 Comment threads
28 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
23 Comment authors
WillyInTopekaBig jMichaelBlue FlashGary Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

Well that really sucks! Not even a quarter inch here in north Topeka and it appears to be done. This system was way overhyped and another flash flood watch that did not need to be issued.

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

Rain is not pushing south or east very much. WeatherUnderground now shows Topeka getting almost nothing from this. Poof indeed!

Big j
Guest
Big j

1.1” of rain today west of the Ville, which sucks. Hoping for a blown forecast tomorrow. We are way too wet.

Zachary McNerney
Guest
Zachary McNerney

Just pointing out something. Look at the futurecast maps on the blog, and then go look at storm shield or any radar and tell me that the storms firing off right now aren’t firing in the exact location on the maps. Crazy. Pretty impressive given it came out this morning

Michael
Guest
Michael

So for the 4th week in a row the 1weather app for my zip code was adjusted up again for the temps, by 10 degrees. Over the last several years I have noticed how in September, especially, the temperature forecast has had to be adjusted. So one would assume the old pattern is not as strong for sure. If not that then just good old Kansas. If you have a hit summer it seems to continue on in September, if we have a “cool” summer it almost always seems to a warm September no matter what. Even when the temps… Read more »

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

.25″ today here in Independence for the Saturday washout. Little to no flooding yet although there is a puddle in my driveway.

John
Guest
John

Where did you see a forecast of a Saturday washout? I’m just curious.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Lots of talk of washed out weekend. Including this headline from KSHB two days ago:

“Washed out weekend? Event-goers will want to keep tabs on the weather through the weekend.”

John
Guest
John

Ok, but that headline even seems to be in the form of a question, with the question mark in the headline. I have not seen a forecast that Saturday was going to be a washout anywhere. The flash flood watch didn’t even go in effect until 8 PM. Even this blog entry said there was going to be several hours without rain between 3 and 10 PM.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Question mark or not, their words, not mine. Of all people, the news department should be listening to their chief Met!

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

I have no data to back this up but this just feels like a POOF. We’ve had them all summer, I think it haunts us again tonight.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

I don’t know about Topeka, but at 5:24 PM, the NWS in Topeka increased the chances of rain to 100% for this area north of Manhattan. Radar shows something is just now beginning to fire up on the east slope.
TONIGHT…Showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall in the evening. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall after midnight. . . Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Matt
Guest
Matt
Troy
Guest
Troy

So far the storms have developed farther West than earlier forecasts. I am not in the Flash Flood watch here in Republic County but we now are in a flood warning. Its rained 2 inches so far and looks like it could keep coming a while.

Jobu
Guest
Jobu

NOAA just dropped the storm further South. Still 4-6 for most of the metro, but looks like initial forecasts for NW MO may be wrong.

Thoughts Jeff and Gary?

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

Not surprised. Almost all the storms with heavy rain has occurred south of the metro in this LRC pattern.

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

No rain yet here in Topeka. The sun is out and it’s really warming up quite a bit. Our rainfall forecast has steadily been dropping on the WeatherUnderground forecast. We were supposed to get nearly 3 inches now only forecasted for about 1.5 inches. Interested to see what happens, really need a good 2-3 inches here with the heat and wind everything is very dry.

Nate
Guest
Nate

Mark my word, this will be a total bust

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Don’t think so. It’s going to rain buckets.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Issued at 8:36 AM by the NWS Topeka:
comment image?59e17cb95746ccef0c6ca266f99169a6

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I am considering building an ark.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Looks like it’s gonna heat up yet again next weekend…UGH! So over it!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

the last weekend in sept…lol…that won’t last long

Nimrod
Guest
Nimrod

Bring it on…… comment image?itemid=3484290

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Thanks Jeff !
Any strong fall cold fronts showing up yet ??

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Thanks for blogging Jeff. It’s nice to not have the LRC jammed down your throat.

Brick
Guest
Brick

Amen!!

rouyerd
Guest
rouyerd

You realize that this is a blog site for promoting the LRC, right? I would think that most, if not all, of the conversation should be centered around the LRC.

Stl78(winona, mn)
Guest
Stl78(winona, mn)

Really, last time i checked this was garys forum. U dont have to be here. I dont always agree with the lrc but if i didnt want to hear about it i surely wouldnt come here where the primary premise is the lrc.

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

If you don’t like my opinion just ignore it. I’m not sorry about hurting your feelings

Stl78(winona, mn)
Guest
Stl78(winona, mn)

Trust me, u are far from hurting my feelings. I just dont get why u would b compelled to come to a site where the lrc is his main point of discussion. Like i said i dont agree with the lrc alot of the times but i do like open discussion. No feathers ruffled here sir! Have a nice wknd

Brick
Guest
Brick

It is also ok, in a healthy discussion, to express your opinion even if don’t agree….

Stl78(winona, mn)
Guest
Stl78(winona, mn)

I agree wit u brick

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Mabye this isn’t the place for you. This blog is all about the LRC and Gary’s discussions about how useful of a tool it is.

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

yep, for a few more days. I hope you got out a little today. I feel bad for you

Brick
Guest
Brick

Inspector : I totally agree, I have no idea what he is going to do when he can’t comment on the blog 50 times a day!!

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Brilliant comment. Just brilliant.

Roger
Guest
Roger

Too bad Kansas City isn’t 175-200 miles to the southwest. It should be dry as a bone here where I live.

My cousin is so excited to be tailgating at 7:00 AM Sunday morning. He thinks a poncho should suffice.

Jobu
Guest
Jobu

Wouldn’t the LRC point to a southern trend for the most rain?

Most of the storms have been South and along 70 versus North.