Good morning bloggers,
In today’s blog we will look into potential developing tropical storm Humberto, and how it is related to the very beginning of this year’s LRC, and we will look at your contest entries for our long range weather forecasting contest, which will end ten days from now.
A few heavy thunderstorms were widely scattered around the area. Most locations around KC got a decent drink of rain water yesterday, with a few spots approaching 1″. KCI Airport was one of these spots. Here is the rainfall total from this storm:
We have been having a contest for the total rainfall in Kansas City for the 40 days or so beginning August 14th and ending September 23rd. Here is what we started with, and what I wrote on August 14th: “How much rain do you think will fall between now and the first day of fall, which is September 23rd? The same pattern that set up last fall will continue until right around that date, and then a massive transition takes place between September 23rd and October 7th. In those two weeks the new LRC will set up. So, let’s have another challenge. I am predicting 150 to 200 percent of average rainfall. Kansas City averages around 5.5 inches of rain between now and September 23: So my prediction is for somewhere between 8.25″ and 11.00″ of rain to fall at KCI Airport.” Here are the predictions:
So, my prediction range using the LRC is 8.25″ to 11.o0″, which is that 150 to 200 percent of average.
Rainfall So Far At KCI Airport:
- August 15: 0.26″
- August 16: 0.81″
- August 17: 0.72″
- August 18: 0.52″
- August 21: 0.09″
- August 22: 0.03″
- August 25: 0.97″
- August 26: 1.44″
- August 29: 1.56″
- August 30: 0.77″
- September 7: 0.43″
- September 8: 0.04″
- September 12: 0.83″
Total So Far with 11 days left: 8.47″
27 contestants are still in the running.
Today’s Weather Pattern:
A strong storm is tracking across the USA/Canada border as you can see above. A cold front is dragging slowly across Indiana southwest to the Red River of Oklahoma and Texas. This front is weakening, and south winds will return tomorrow.
Today’s Video On Tropical Development & The LRC
In this video we discuss the likely offshore track of a developing tropical system near the Bahamas. Yes, the Bahamas could be the target once again (and you will probably be able to tell my allergies are kicking in and I am ready for a stronger cold front to wipe this ragweed pollen out of the air). The farther off of Florida this system forms, the more likely it is to become a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center, at the moment, is not predicting this system to become a hurricane. But, if you remember, the NHC also had a prediction early for Dorian with a projection of staying below hurricane strength as well. I am now leaning in the direction of this system staying farther out to sea, and near the Bahamas. If that happens, it would likely have a better chance of developing into a hurricane.
Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Have a great day. It is going to be a fantastic day in KC with near perfect weather.