Rainfall Contest Continues & Video Blog Looking Into The Tropics

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Good morning bloggers,

In today’s blog we will look into potential developing tropical storm Humberto, and how it is related to the very beginning of this year’s LRC, and we will look at your contest entries for our long range weather forecasting contest, which will end ten days from now.

A few heavy thunderstorms were widely scattered around the area.  Most locations around KC got a decent drink of rain water yesterday, with a few spots approaching 1″.  KCI Airport was one of these spots.  Here is the rainfall total from this storm:

We have been having a contest for the total rainfall in Kansas City for the 40 days or so beginning August 14th and ending September 23rd.  Here is what we started with, and what I wrote on August 14th:  “How much rain do you think will fall between now and the first day of fall, which is September 23rd?  The same pattern that set up last fall will continue until right around that date, and then a massive transition takes place between September 23rd and October 7th.  In those two weeks the new LRC will set up.  So, let’s have another challenge.  I am predicting 150 to 200 percent of average rainfall.  Kansas City averages around 5.5 inches of rain between now and September 23:  So my prediction is for somewhere between 8.25″ and 11.00″ of rain to fall at KCI Airport.”  Here are the predictions:

So, my prediction range using the LRC is 8.25″ to 11.o0″, which is that 150 to 200 percent of average.

Rainfall So Far At KCI Airport:

  • August 15:  0.26″
  • August 16:  0.81″
  • August 17:  0.72″
  • August 18:  0.52″
  • August 21:  0.09″
  • August 22:  0.03″
  • August 25:  0.97″
  • August 26:  1.44″
  • August 29:  1.56″
  • August 30:  0.77″
  • September 7:   0.43″
  • September 8:  0.04″
  • September 12:  0.83″

Total So Far with 11 days left:  8.47″

27 contestants are still in the running.

Today’s Weather Pattern:

A strong storm is tracking across the USA/Canada border as you can see above. A cold front is dragging slowly across Indiana southwest to the Red River of Oklahoma and Texas.  This front is weakening, and south winds will return tomorrow.

Today’s Video On Tropical Development & The LRC

In this video  we discuss the likely offshore track of a developing tropical system near the Bahamas.  Yes, the Bahamas could be the target once again (and you will probably be able to tell my allergies are kicking in and I am ready for a stronger cold front to wipe this ragweed pollen out of the air).  The farther off of Florida this system forms, the more likely it is to become a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center, at the moment, is not predicting this system to become a hurricane.  But, if you remember, the NHC also had a prediction early for Dorian with a projection of staying below hurricane strength as well.  I am now leaning in the direction of this system staying farther out to sea, and near the Bahamas.  If that happens, it would likely have a better chance of developing into a hurricane.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.  Have a great day.  It is going to be a fantastic day in KC with near perfect weather.

Gary

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Dan
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Dan

I thought Gary said Humberto was going into the gulf based on LRC

Big j
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Big j

Fortunately only got .35” so it didn’t screw up my mowing today, nor our boating tonight or tomorrow on Smithville lake. The grass is still growing like crazy. Hoping for a good dry stretch.

steve p
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steve p

you stated there’s no freezes or much cold weather showing up anywhere yet. since we had the earliest snowfall ever in KC last year in Oct, looking back what kind of pattern produced that early cold, and are you seeing anything similar happening again this year. if you come even close to being right on a repeat or something similar to the 10″ of rain in 3d happening this year, you’d quiet alot of skeptics. just sayin’.

JoeK
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JoeK

Steve, While I am not Gary, just wanted to remind you that according to the LRC, every LRC is unique and does not set-up until around the first week of October so there isn’t a way to predict what the upcoming winter holds ( using the LRC). Not sure what you mean by “10” of rain in 3d happening this year” ? Regarding an attempt to quiet the skeptics, in my humble opinion, skepticism is an integral part of any discovery. It drives constant evaluation and research thus, leading to further discovery. As with anything, the LRC is not yet… Read more »

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Kansas City’s 2019 precipitation has a ways to go to catch up with the record, 60.25” in 1961.
https://www.weather.gov/eax/annualpcpn

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Is it just me or how is TradeWx legal? It seems like those old online sports betting sites in the late 90s the government shut down.

Roger
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Roger

Amazing to see abnormal dryness and D1 drought still in parts of Kansas. That’s crazy.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

There are some 40’s showing up on the models for the 28th and 29th, it is still a few weeks out, so it can change, but looks like fall could finally be making its arrival.

MMike
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MMike

Hockey,

Those same 40’s were showing for Sept. 21st or so a few days ago, now, they have been pushed back a whole week. Latest GFS still very warm the next couple of weeks…not much rain either. Hopefully more days like today show up as it is GORGEOUS out right now.

Real HumeDude
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Real HumeDude

.6″ last night, I got lucky one little cell came overhead before main line and gave me most of that in a bout 10 minutes. Large cell went way to my south and only got some light showers after that. Should be good to pop some Fescue I planted, but need more rain soon to really kick that into gear and don’t see much coming in the long range.

RickMcKc
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RickMcKc

.94 in my backyard last night.

Larry in Shawnee
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Larry in Shawnee

Gary, at 6:23 to 6:25 or so in your video, you state that “once we do we will have a ????.” Neither by wife or I can understand the words, it almost sounds like a “caution blog.”

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Larry
He says “once we do we will have a cost with the blog “

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

I recorded .60″ up here in Maryville, MO. Woke up to a gorgeous cool morning! Love this fall weather! My favorite season of the Four! Have a great weekend Bloggers!
Michael

Johnny
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Johnny

Too bad it will be in the 90s all next week

MMike
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MMike

.39 inches of rain west of Liberty last night, good, but not great. Next 7-10 days don;t look wet at all, look very warm and dry. Not good for fall seeding….if only we knew it was going to be so warm and dry. JoeK, John, Gary……..yes, you guys the king defenders of the LRC, I need some answers. The LRC is great and I’m on the record of saying so many times, but, as Three7’s has mentioned, there are many limitations. Let’s discuss. So, the consensus is that summer (June 20th to Sept. 23rd) has been cooler then average….has it??… Read more »

Three7s
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Three7s

Don’t forget that while KCI has been much above average for the year for rain, there are plenty of areas that haven’t really had as much rain as that one location. I know I haven’t. It’s really been the case of if you’re in the right spot, sort of like what we were dealing with in a lot of winters before last year.

I really hate that KCI is the only legitimate reporting station.

John
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John

I will say that I do not defend the LRC blindly. My pick for rain in this contest was around 3.7″, which was surpassed many days ago. I discussed how I thought the LRC was less reliable during the summer months, because the surface setups are so erratic during the summer months. LRC said it was going to get wet again and it has. I still feel like the summer months are more of a toss-up when it comes to precipitation patterns. The temperatures were predicted to be near or below average, which most of the summer has been. I… Read more »

MMike
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MMike

Hi John, Thanks for your response. I would have to agree on the ‘summer months are more of a toss up”. Thunderstorms….who gets them and who misses them? It can be tough on grading a forecast. Sure, some parts of the city had plentiful rain this summer, but not everyone. Plus, the scattered days we did have rain it came too fast. I’m in the landscape field and we watered a lot this summer for it being what is called a crazy wet pattern. (yes, crazy wet as far as totals, but as far as spreading it out and more… Read more »

JoeK
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JoeK

Mike, Oh boy, “King defenders” really? Now that you put me in that category and in using a bit of an undertone, I will refrain from addressing that piece :D. With that said, I too, want answers, but isn’t that what science is about? You ask Gary tough questions and in some cases, very good questions and in others, less reasonable. Whether or not you know it ( or Gary Knows it) it forces Gary to think in ways he may not have previously. That is what pushes any scientist to further his/her theory. Now, with that out of the… Read more »

Melanie
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Melanie

In eastern Shawnee I received 0.49″.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

About .20″ just north of Liberty. Pretty much a non-event compared to what the storm prediction center put out and others about the severe weather possibility. Should be a great evening for Friday Night Lights! Looking forward to it but doggone this ragweed is a pain. Not wanting cold temperatures, just cooler but if a quick freeze would knock out the ragweed, then I would take it. 14 weeks until Star Wars Episode IX! Happy Friday everyone, enjoy this weather!

J-ox
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J-ox

.45″ in NW Lawrence.