A Weak Cold Front Will Move Across The Plains Today

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Good morning bloggers,

There is a storm moving across the northern plains today, and a weakening cold front will track across Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma creating a risk for severe thunderstorms.  Here is a surface forecast valid around 4 PM:

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening:

From the Storm Prediction Center:

 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MN
   TO EASTERN KS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
   mid/upper Mississippi Valley. More isolated activity is expected to
   extend across eastern Kansas into the Texas South Plains. A few
   strong storms are also possible across the Middle Atlantic region.

   ...Mid/Upper MS Valley...

   Strong short-wave trough is forecast to eject across WY/CO early
   this morning before shifting into the Dakotas/central Plains by 18z.
   Associated 500mb speed max, on the order of 70kt, will translate
   into southeast SD by early afternoon then progress into western IA
   by 13/00z. This feature is partly responsible for an MCS over SD/NE
   at 0530z which is expected to propagate across eastern NE into
   western IA by morning. Models are in general agreement this activity
   should gradually weaken as LLJ veers and weakens by sunrise.
   However, there is some concern the MCS could be potentially more
   disruptive to a reservoir of buoyancy across the mid MS Valley. If
   this occurs then severe probs may need to be adjusted at 13z to
   reflect the airmass modification.

   Latest thinking is strong large-scale forcing for ascent will spread
   across the eastern Dakotas/NE into MN/IA during the afternoon hours.
   Substantial height falls are expected across this region, and
   barring a disruptive MCS continuing beyond sunrise, downstream
   surface front should advance north across northern IA into southern
   MN before stalling ahead of the short wave. If boundary layer
   recovers, as expected, discrete supercells should evolve along/south
   of the NW/SE-oriented surface boundary over southern MN/northeast
   IA. Expected wind profiles favor at least some threat for a few
   tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging winds and some hail can be expected.

   ...Central/Southern Plains...

   While large-scale height falls will be limited to areas north of
   I-70, notable surface front is surging south across the High Plains
   and should extend across eastern KS-northwest OK-TX Panhandle by mid
   afternoon. Surface readings should soar through the upper 80s to
   near 90F ahead of the boundary and convective temperatures should be
   breached by 20-21z. Seasonally high-PW air mass and frontal lift
   should easily contribute to scattered thunderstorms along the
   trailing boundary. This activity should grow upscale as it
   propagates slowly southeast during the evening. Locally damaging
   winds are the primary severe threat.

We will be monitoring these thunderstorms closely.  Will it become a solid line and bring a nice drink of water to many spots, or will they be more widely scattered which means they would miss a few spots. For Kansas City, the window for thunderstorms is from around 2 PM to 6 PM, and then the risk will shift south and it may be a more solid line by 4 or 6 PM.  A bit slower on the front, and the chance of that 1/2" to 1" of rain is higher.

The Tropics:

There are two systems that have the attention of the National Hurricane Center this week.  One system is already throwing everyone for a little loop.  Many of the models have the system near Cuba intensifying east of Florida and moving off the east coast of Florida and moving north, while others have a weaker system moving into the Gulf of Mexico.  And, then that second system has a good chance of becoming a stronger to major hurricane around the 20th. Both of these systems have been in the LRC forecast for months now.  Let’s see how this evolves.

Go to Tradewx.com,  open your account, and begin making your weather predictions.  Test out your skills. When you open up your account you do get $10 to begin trading with.  Here is how it works on prediction of landfalling named tropical storms & hurricanes:

Pet Peeve of the day:  Watching various weather people from national networks showing the models drives me “nuts”.  Today, one of them showed the Euro model off the east coast tracking to near Georgia, and the “American” model (GFS) tracking to near New Orleans, and that they were 650 miles apart.  This is true, FOR LAST NIGHTS RUN.  But, yesterday, the Euro model had it near New Orleans too.  It should always be mentioned that they had completely different tracks just six or 12 hours earlier.  The Euro could be in New Orleans on the next model run and the GFS could be off the east coast of Florida.  There seems to be a universal effort to try to make the American model look bad?

Have a great day, and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day and sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

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Big J
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Big J

I won’t pay $1 to read, too many free ones out there. But I did predict .35” west of Smithville and that’s what we got. So I got a side gig as a meteorologist I guess. On another note, Game Day is finally at the college football mecca this weekend. Ames, Iowa. Go Clones!

JohnS
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JohnS

Any idea when the cooler temps will get here? I can’t be the only one that’s sick of the heat and humidity.

Frankie
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Frankie

No you are not the only one… fall starts soon. We need the cooler temps!

Big j
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Big j

Oct 15, give or take 3 weeks

KS Jones
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KS Jones

comment image
“As you can see in this short video clip, I pointed to the exact same location that the National Hurricane Center is targeting. Our 30 day to 180 day outlook is showing once again to be better than a 7 day outlook from the NHC.” -Gary

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Are you willing to bet the farm on Gary’s prediction? Here’s NOAA’s latest prediction:
comment image

Spooky
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Spooky

Another nothing burger for KC. Farmers will be mad, or not.

Big j
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Big j

Farmers Don’t want rain. The crops are made.

John
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John

I just do not get some of the comments on this blog sometimes. Some of you are criticizing a forecast from months ago about a tropical disturbance forming near the Bahamas because he didn’t say it was going to be a category 5 hurricane, or the blanket statement of anyone can say there is going to be a tropical dosturbance in the Bahamas during the peak of hurricane season, but the fact is that I don’t know how many forecasters predicted it 6 months in advance? The fact that there was a prediction made of a tropical disturbance in that… Read more »

Johnny
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Johnny

100% agree. The lrc isn’t perfect, but it’s pretty damn consistent identifying storm systems. Weather is too unpredictable to be perfect. But compared to the long term models, it’s much better.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Censored comments, criticism, or not, it’s gonna be $120/year to read this blog soon anyway.

John
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John

He only deletes comments that are attacks or just bash a forecast without facts to backup their statements. I offered a criticism last week about why he went against the LRC forecast when he was predicting on Thursday of two weeks ago that Dorian would make landfall in SE Florida. He answered my comment. I don’t pretend to know how other comments get deleted. Honestly this blog should have just remained a pay blog like it was in the beginning, because most people will not pay money to troll a blog. He is trying to advance his theory and make… Read more »

Three7s
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Three7s

Not entirely true. I’ve mentioned some of the limitations the LRC has as far as surface changes and what not and my comment got deleted. Wasn’t directly attacking the LRC and just wanted that to be a point of discussion, but it got deleted.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Yeah but $120/year is pretty steep. You can get a Amazon Prime membership for about that.

Wesley
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Wesley

I’ve been reading the blog nearly daily for probably 10 years. Rarely post, but It would be cool if it was still free to read, pay to participate maybe. Ultimately it’s Gary’s call. I will miss the winter storm discussions on here though should it be entirely pay based.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Agreed. It’s really going to be the end of the 200+ comment blog era if it truly is $10/month. Some may still pay, but in reality, your just paying for a Internet discussion group. I mean, why – in the day and age of Reddit?

f00dl3
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f00dl3

And I really hate to say this and I’m shocked others don’t realize this but in some ways the back and forth banter as long as it’s not offensive is actually rather entertaining i.e. the running joke if you will about farmers, the counter theories, my thoughts that the pattern starts a bit earlier than Gary will admit, all this stuff – it adds character. It makes this a free, unique place that we can discuss weather and ideas and bounce stuff off the wall, have a bit of fun, and just communicate. And the negative like thing is fun… Read more »

JoeK
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JoeK

Foodl3, As I have commented many times, your insistence that the LRC sets up earlier has been tested and proven wrong. A former colleague of Garys has the same theory and has been tested and proven wrong. He attempts to use it to discover the pattern and cycle length every year and guess what, he has to adjust it every year in Late October early November. Now, you seem to be an intelligent person so ask yourself what would cause this. I’ll volunteer my thoughts, the cycle length and pattern does not set-up until September/October. I studied his theory objectively,… Read more »

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I agree the pattern at the 500 mb level does not set up until October. I just think the lower 1000 mb works separate from the upper 500 mb. Invisible changes, that you don’t necessarily see in upper level maps. Oddly enough those changes are initially caused BY the 500 mb pattern, too.

Jobu
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Jobu

Here’s my thought, I can make a general statement today (9/12) that the week of 12/17 somewhere within 200 miles N, S, E, W of KC a snow storm will be present. While I may end up correct it is simply using history. I would imagine in a 400 mile area (200 miles all directions for KC) 75% of the time there is some sort of winter storm that week. You heard it here first!! For Gary to use the LRC to predict that the storm will NOT hit Florida, even though someone thought it would hit Alabama is incredible.… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

I’m just saying…if you suspect there is a strong possibility of a hurricane in a particular region 6 months in advance…..maybe put more effort into that forecast that a single sentence?!?!
I would have been screaming that for months in advance, but instead they had a sentence dedicated to that possible outcome. I say go with a big, bold forecast if you want LRC to get proper attention it deserves. I wasn’t attacking LRC

John
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John

I know that you were not attacking the LRC, but others definitely do with no facts to back up their points. I will definitely miss all the back and forth conversations with some of the fellow bloggers, but I feel it is ultimately a business decision and a theory will get alot more publicity without the childish behavior of some, which almost always ruins it for everybody. This is just what the internet provides in today’s world where anyone can get on a computer and make stupid, inaccurate statements behind a fake screen name. This blog provides valuable information behind… Read more »

Tim
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Tim

I by all means believe in the LRC, as it has been utilized as a piece of the prediction puzzle paired with the weather models for CONUS forecasting.. But to assert a repetitive pattern in oct-dec in the tropics– as the hurricane season is ending or ended –is somehow has a similar pattern as the beginning of the season is just beyond a stretch. We have had this discussion before. We are in Cape verde season now.. storms travel from Africa westward toward US and central America. . That does not exist in may-July. For the past 6 weeks there… Read more »

f00dl3
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f00dl3

The puzzle the LRC maybe provides insight in is the way the jet stream launches air masses, which in turn generate frontal boundaries, which in turn create desirable or less than desirable sheer for any of these given disturbances to form. While the air masses arguably may change due to surface features as I have hypothesized, these surface changes shape the next LRC so it would make sense these surface changes continue into the next LRC for the duration of the hurricane season, and would explain why the hurricane season maybe is what it is because the surface features are… Read more »

JoeK
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JoeK

John, Great post! Glad to see common sense prevail. When attempting to predict anything with specificity in an area that encompasses such vast geography like the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, the very fact that Gary chose the Bahamas and a specific time frame not only proves the validity of the LRC, but has not been accomplished by any other known theory or forecasting tools. With that said, I too, agree and have told Gary to go bold with his predictions in an effort to win over those that are still questionable about the LRC. With that said, I am sure… Read more »

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

With a place to wager a bet now, that’s where it will be bold. Depending on how many bet and amount wagered will determine the boldness. Somebody could hit it big. Once enough traction and interest, it will make the news, then it goes up from there. It’s a great way to crowd source and idea into mainstream. Regarding surface features. It’s a bit clearer when the storm track is not so far north. Good example is today’s system, way up north. Further south and it validates to many easier. Summertime features are easy to spot if things don’t really… Read more »

Larry
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Larry

The cold front is on my doorstep in NW Lawrence. Winds have shifted from the South to the Northwest in the last 10 minutes.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

NOAA’s 2 PM track of disturbance #1 shows it will bend to a more northwesterly direction (away from the Gulf).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Ted in STJoe
Guest
Ted in STJoe

It is warmer/hotter temperatures are good for the soybeans though.

Ted in STJoe
Guest
Ted in STJoe

Things are kind of weird around here. I don’t know if it’s going to rain or not. I wish the rain would stop up north in Nebraska and South Dakota.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Is it just me or does the rain look like it’s going to miss Kansas City? The storms along the front are becoming more diffuse / scattered, and with the clouds in place and the front being the trigger, the front will assume the position infront of the clouds when storms fire this afternoon, they will probably fire east of the KC metro area.

dustin
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dustin

I half think you’re right. The other half of me thinks that second line (from Wichita to Manhattan) is going to absorb the energy and prove the forecasters right. It could easily go either direction.

steve p
Guest
steve p

not sure its bias against the GFS its just that the more outrageous and “extreme” crap they can bloviate, the more they can grab eyebllas. has nothing to do with accuracy. now base their pay on being accurate instead of going all katie-whats-her-face on people and we might get better forecasts. I always say the morning show talking heads (they are THE worst) have the lamest staffs and have correctly predicted 7 out of the last 5 hurricanes. just like economists but more irritating.

Zachary McNerney
Guest
Zachary McNerney

Can’t wait till the new pattern sets up. So Gary is it still to early to see any changes that might be indicative of the new pattern or are there things ur seeing already? Thanks and love ya gary

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

The big win LRC forecast for Dorian was literally one sentence, and never mentioned an actual major hurricane simply “a tropical system could be lurking”. You need to do a lot better than that to hang your hat on a forecast in my opinion, a single sentence about a tropical system “maybe” isn’t a forecast, that’s a generality approximation. A forecast is adamant, detailed, and offers some level of specifics

Three7s
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Three7s

My thoughts exactly. Not once was a hurricane predicted, just a “tropical disturbance”. Yes, it’s impressive that something could be pinpointed that far out, but it needs to be more specific in order to really turn heads.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Looks like rain is coming in before the time predicted. And of course, the NAM wasn’t even close to predicting the storms correctly.

Roger
Guest
Roger

Troy. Maybe the lack of cold air developing is due to Alaska, Iceland, and Greenland losing tremendous amounts of ice. This is very troubling.

https://truthout.org/articles/alaskas-sea-ice-completely-melted-for-first-time-in-recorded-history/

Troy
Guest
Troy

I do agree the GFS gets a bad rap. It was only a couple percentage points less accurate than the Euro before the new GFS. Right now I am not so sure its any better. The European models can’t seem to find any cold air in the extended forecasts and I don’t believe we will be above normal across almost all of N America on into October.

Bentley
Guest
Bentley

I am 13 so I cant do Trade Wx

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Gambling is bad for kids. Bet on it……….

Jaxon
Guest
Jaxon

So the LRC favors the system moving into the gulf, while the Euro favors it remaining on the east side of Florida and up the coast. Interesting battle between the forecasts!

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

Gary,

Does it look like we could get a decent shot of some measurable rain from these storms? Obviously if we get under some heavy thunderstorms they could drop a lot of rain quickly. What are your thoughts over the rest of September? Getting more wet and be a good time to start preparing the lawn for the winter?

Matt
Guest
Matt

SPC had expand Slight Risk into OK. the Weather Channel will be over it if Major Hurricane.