Good morning bloggers,
There is a storm moving across the northern plains today, and a weakening cold front will track across Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma creating a risk for severe thunderstorms. Here is a surface forecast valid around 4 PM:
There is a risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening:
From the Storm Prediction Center:
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MN TO EASTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. More isolated activity is expected to extend across eastern Kansas into the Texas South Plains. A few strong storms are also possible across the Middle Atlantic region. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley... Strong short-wave trough is forecast to eject across WY/CO early this morning before shifting into the Dakotas/central Plains by 18z. Associated 500mb speed max, on the order of 70kt, will translate into southeast SD by early afternoon then progress into western IA by 13/00z. This feature is partly responsible for an MCS over SD/NE at 0530z which is expected to propagate across eastern NE into western IA by morning. Models are in general agreement this activity should gradually weaken as LLJ veers and weakens by sunrise. However, there is some concern the MCS could be potentially more disruptive to a reservoir of buoyancy across the mid MS Valley. If this occurs then severe probs may need to be adjusted at 13z to reflect the airmass modification. Latest thinking is strong large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across the eastern Dakotas/NE into MN/IA during the afternoon hours. Substantial height falls are expected across this region, and barring a disruptive MCS continuing beyond sunrise, downstream surface front should advance north across northern IA into southern MN before stalling ahead of the short wave. If boundary layer recovers, as expected, discrete supercells should evolve along/south of the NW/SE-oriented surface boundary over southern MN/northeast IA. Expected wind profiles favor at least some threat for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging winds and some hail can be expected. ...Central/Southern Plains... While large-scale height falls will be limited to areas north of I-70, notable surface front is surging south across the High Plains and should extend across eastern KS-northwest OK-TX Panhandle by mid afternoon. Surface readings should soar through the upper 80s to near 90F ahead of the boundary and convective temperatures should be breached by 20-21z. Seasonally high-PW air mass and frontal lift should easily contribute to scattered thunderstorms along the trailing boundary. This activity should grow upscale as it propagates slowly southeast during the evening. Locally damaging winds are the primary severe threat. We will be monitoring these thunderstorms closely. Will it become a solid line and bring a nice drink of water to many spots, or will they be more widely scattered which means they would miss a few spots. For Kansas City, the window for thunderstorms is from around 2 PM to 6 PM, and then the risk will shift south and it may be a more solid line by 4 or 6 PM. A bit slower on the front, and the chance of that 1/2" to 1" of rain is higher. The Tropics:
There are two systems that have the attention of the National Hurricane Center this week. One system is already throwing everyone for a little loop. Many of the models have the system near Cuba intensifying east of Florida and moving off the east coast of Florida and moving north, while others have a weaker system moving into the Gulf of Mexico. And, then that second system has a good chance of becoming a stronger to major hurricane around the 20th. Both of these systems have been in the LRC forecast for months now. Let’s see how this evolves.
Go to Tradewx.com, open your account, and begin making your weather predictions. Test out your skills. When you open up your account you do get $10 to begin trading with. Here is how it works on prediction of landfalling named tropical storms & hurricanes:
Pet Peeve of the day: Watching various weather people from national networks showing the models drives me “nuts”. Today, one of them showed the Euro model off the east coast tracking to near Georgia, and the “American” model (GFS) tracking to near New Orleans, and that they were 650 miles apart. This is true, FOR LAST NIGHTS RUN. But, yesterday, the Euro model had it near New Orleans too. It should always be mentioned that they had completely different tracks just six or 12 hours earlier. The Euro could be in New Orleans on the next model run and the GFS could be off the east coast of Florida. There seems to be a universal effort to try to make the American model look bad?
Have a great day, and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day and sharing in this weather experience.