The 2018-2019 Cycling Pattern Continues

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Good morning bloggers,

In the past three hurricane seasons Weather2020 accurately predicted the following named storms:  Harvey, Irma, Maria, Alberto, Gordon, Florence, Michael, and Dorian.  Dorian was predicted six months before to be a potential tropical system “lurking in the Bahama’s”, as was in the popular 1Weather app.  And now, this system:

The National Hurricane Center has increased the probability of a named storm to 60%.  This has been in our forecast for months now as you can see this pulled from one of the videos that played in the 1Weather app on our 12-week forecast section over a month ago:

Here is a little clip:

As you can see in this short video clip, I pointed to the exact same location that the National Hurricane Center is targeting.  Our 30 day to 180 day outlook is showing once again to be better than a 7 day outlook from the NHC.

The current cycling weather pattern set up last October, almost a year ago, and it continues today.  The “blizzard part of the cycling pattern” that produced 10″ of rain in October, a blizzard in November, a one foot snowstorm in January, a 3″ snowstorm in March, and severe weather risks in the warm season, is returning in these next ten days.  The pattern has been cycling in the 47-52 day range, centered closest to 49 days since it began. A new and unique pattern will begin evolving soon. There are subtle changes beginning to show up, and the much bigger phenomena happens two to three weeks from now after the sun sets at the North Pole on the Autumnal Equinox.

Severe Weather Risks:

The above two graphics show the severe weather risks for today and Thursday.  There is an enhanced slight risk of severe weather today over the western high plains, and then the risk is over KC on Thursday.

This next map above shows the 3K NAM model with a strong to severe line of thunderstorms extending from Iowa into Oklahoma valid a 6 PM Thursday.

The timing of tomorrows front will be of high interest for when and where these thunderstorms will affect your area.  Right now it appears to be in the 3 PM to 7 PM window for Kansas City.  It will be a warm and muggy couple of days ahead of this system.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. We are now being featured on the Tradewx.com site, and you can go there to check out the insights.  How good are you at weather forecasting?  If you use our LRC insights it will provide enough information to help you make good decisions.

Have a great day!

Gary

Gary

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GaryTimJessicaEastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)Heat Mizer Recent comment authors
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Tim
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Tim

Hey Gary,

Headed to Turks and Caicos sept 23. Any concern for tropical activity based on the lrc?

Jessica
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Jessica
Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

dang…96 in Lawrence

Stl78(winona, mn)
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Stl78(winona, mn)

Hello guys. We actually have a confirmed ef1 tornado that touched down tbis morning just a few miles away from our home. Who would have guessed we would of had a touchdown so close to us in Minnesota and not the 10 yrs i lived in and around the kansas city area..crazy. i was on my front porch at 630 this morning when the touchdown happened. Would have never have guessed there was a touchdown so close but my house is somewhat protected by the large bluffs

Michael
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Michael

So is this the endless summer or is this the beginning of the summer that we really never completely had this year?

Andrew H
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Andrew H

According to the NWS KC, our average last 90° day is 9/15. Last year we had 6 days with highs 90° or higher after the 15th.

Here’s hoping we cool off significantly after the Equinox this year !!

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Utah, Wyoming, and Nevada have had their first snows of the season. There is more forecasted in the new two weeks to include Montana, Colorado, and Idaho. It’s only a matter of time for KC. Could just be 5 weeks away, but likely longer.

Rodney
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Rodney

I know the new weather pattern hasn’t set up yet and we’re still in the final days of the old pattern but is there any kind of indication whether or not will have a La Niña, El Niño, or neutral winter? Thanks

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)
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EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)

A thing I’ve discussed earlier, but it’s relevant now. 2017-2018’s pattern ended on the “two cold days” part of the pattern – it’s the part that produced the two cold days at the end of January 2018 and the part that produced the only two un-hot days in May 2018 (20th and 21st). This year’s pattern is going to end on the “four-day heatwave” part of the pattern. This is what created our four warm days in mid-December, the beginning of February, and the middle of May. If the way the previous pattern ends influences the way the next one… Read more »

Roger
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Roger

May (and for some, August) were wet to very wet in central and southwest Kansas. However, April, July, and September (so far) have been dry to very dry. It may just balance out to a near normal precipitation year for those of us.

EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)
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EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)

It’ll be above average.

Because we’re already above average for an entire year, and have been for a while.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

But wasn’t it hot ( warm ) and dry the last 2 weeks of Sept / early Oct 2018 ?
Then it turned cool and wet after Oct 10 ?

EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)
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EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)

It was, but the key date of October 5-6 was that two-day cold bit. I guess that was what mattered? I’m not really sure. I’m just kind of throwing my thoughts on here. I’m no weather expert.

MMike
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MMike

49 days ago we were in a cooler then average pattern…now, well above average.

So what’s the forecast for the gulf? You said that you predicted it 6 months ago, so, what are you predicting? Thunderstorms in the gulf or a tropical storm that will threaten life and property.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Would the storm tomorrow be related to the storm ( tornado) that hit Lawrence and Linwood ? Or has that storm already happened.

farmermike
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farmermike

i thought we should be seeing signs of the wet pattern returning by now. the models look very dry next 15 days. i know the pattern is about to change but i thought Gary said there would be one more wet spell this month???????????

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Still hot and humid and for now looks to be above average for the month of September in temperatures but may fall short on the precipitation, unless the LRC is on schedule and we are in the right location. Maybe the last third of the month will change both of those. This day is always a tough day in our country. Still remember where I was when the attacks occurred. We will never forget! God bless all of those that perished, those that experienced it, their families, and the first responders! 15 weeks until Christmas! It’s a little hot, humid,… Read more »

Andrew H
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Andrew H

It was a beautiful bluebird blue sky, cool September morning in KC.
Same in NYC, DC and Pennsylvania.
Then it turned terrifyingly dark all across our nation.
We will never forget.

Frankie
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Frankie

GFS run this morning shows us getting pretty cold towards end of Sept…

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Obviously it’s a ways away and will change, but this is impressive!
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blue flash
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blue flash

Yes I’ve been watching this for the past few days and GFS has been all over the place. Latest run shows a weak hurricane missing Florida to the east.