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Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is cycling regularly according to the LRC.  According to the LRC a unique weather pattern sets up every year between around October 1st and November 30th, and this pattern then cycles through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and summer.  The old pattern finally falls apart and the new pattern sets up again the next fall.  We are just three weeks away from the very earliest stages of next year’s pattern. Right now we are likely in a transition period that is beginning to affect the overall cycling weather pattern of the Northern Hemisphere.  We are experiencing something different right now.  Take a look at this mornings surface temperature map from around 6 AM:

There were no freezing temperatures anywhere including some of the higher elevation mountain locations.  It has been a warm ending to the season, and this was predicted by our proprietary LRC computer model to happen this month.  The average first freeze dates are indicated below:

The far northern plains are due for the first freeze of the season.  And, right now it is a pretty warm pattern. There is a cold front that will be developing in the next couple of days and as this moves across the plains it will help produce a line of showers and thunderstorms as it weakens.

This storm system is tracking east along the USA/Canada border later this week.  This storm is likely going to go through an occlusion at the surface, where the cold front catches up with the warm front over Minnesota.  This type of storm will keep most of the cool air up near that surface circulation up there, but some colder air will get wrapped into this system.  For Kansas City, this will likely mean a good chance of a few showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. The timing of the front would need to slow down a bit, or some locations will end up getting missed by the scattered thunderstorms before they organize into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System).

Have a terrific Tuesday and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

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AdamEastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)KS JonesMichaelJohnny Recent comment authors
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Adam
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Adam

I was just 10 miles from Aurora, CO last Friday late afternoon. Clouds were getting dark and darker as I drove west on I70 in Western Colorado. I watched a wall cloud form and eventually received a tornado warning alert on my phone about 15 minutes after it was warned. I pulled over at the next exit at a store and was heading in and the wall cloud passed over. I think it had dropped something at that point because everything around me was swirling but it wasn’t real violent. That Was the coolest weather experience I’ve ever been through.… Read more »

Michael
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Michael

Must have missed the prediction that the first half of September was gonna be so warm, hopefully second half is way below to make the month end “average”.

Johnny
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Johnny

I’m ready to turn off the AC..let me know when I can

Nimbus
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Nimbus

Is it just me or did all the Cicadas suddenly stop making their noises and drop dead? The first freeze can’t come soon enough. Between all the pollen and a bumper crop of mosquitoes, ticks and chiggers I have had it with warm, wet and humid! Too bad Gary can’t just fiddle with some knobs and make it cooler or conjure up a storm……..now that would be something.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Cicadas are still buzzing here. We have a lot of trees in our yard (technically a forest), and they seem to be abundant in that setting. They began their “singing” in mid June, and on June 17th I saw a horned owl in the grass catching them. I didn’t know a horned owl could run on the ground, but this one can run fast through the mowed grass. He (or she) has been showing up like clockwork right after sunset every evening since June 17th.

SnowGoPewPew
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SnowGoPewPew

I’m going to beat Mr. Freeze to the punch…

Weeks Until Christmas Day. There are currently 15 weeks, 1 day until Christmas Day 2019.

MMike
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MMike

Gary,

You mentioned several times in August that when the pattern cycles through Sept. 10th through Sept 25th that we will turn really wet…are you still forecasting that? Long range data has been showing mainly dry conditions and that’s what we’re getting.

Lots of seed and sod down this time of year, need frequent rains…way too dry right now.

Humidity is helping out right now as what we are watering is holding in the soil pretty good.

Jim
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Jim

Look back at the record low temps we had on July 23rd using the LRC will this cold air be cycling back soon?

EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)
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EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)

theoretically it should be…today

Andrew H
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Andrew H

So is this warm stretch going to last all month ? Hope not. Fall starts in 11 days.

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

Some of the guys over on the Weather Forums have been calling for an early Fall (in terms of temps). So far, nothing in the models to suggest that’s the case yet. Looking pretty warm, actually. I’m ready for some cooler weather …

EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)
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EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)

Park City, UT is forecast to drop to near or at freezing tomorrow. I may drive up there just to feel it.

Bentley
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Bentley

First!!

Frankie
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Frankie

Is this summer like heat in KC 100% related to this current LRC or are there some influences of the new LRC as well? I hope it is not the latter, because I don’t want a hot pattern coming up lol

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

There was a long range model that was giving a chance for snow on October 15th. I know the models have been bad and it’s a long way out but something to watch as the new LRC develops.

EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)
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EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)

Lol, repeat of last year? Hope it happens!

f00dl3
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f00dl3

When will the part of the pattern cycle through that gave us the cold air to produce our earliest snow in recorded history last October? I would think for sure that would bring a first freeze to someone or at least record low temperatures.

EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)
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EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)

around the 22nd?