A Very Warm Middle Of September

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Good morning bloggers,

The KC Chiefs win their season opener, and so did a dozen other teams, and there was one tie. The weather for the opening weekend had no major issues, nationwide, and the quiet pattern continues.  While last week was dominated by Major Hurricane Dorian, and how it ambushed the northern Bahamas, this week will be a lot quieter.  This years cycling weather pattern is now nearing its final breath.  The LRC describes the cycling weather pattern over the Northern Hemisphere, which sets up around the first week of October each year and lasts deep into September of the next year.  We are still in the final stages of this years pattern and it is ending up quite warm.

We have been having a contest for the total rainfall in Kansas City for the 40 days or so beginning August 14th and ending September 23rd.  Here is what we started with, and what I wrote on August 14th:  “How much rain do you think will fall between now and the first day of fall, which is September 23rd?  The same pattern that set up last fall will continue until right around that date, and then a massive transition takes place between September 23rd and October 7th.  In those two weeks the new LRC will set up.  So, let’s have another challenge.  I am predicting 150 to 200 percent of average rainfall.  Kansas City averages around 5.5 inches of rain between now and September 23:  So my prediction is for somewhere between 8.25″ and 11.00″ of rain to fall at KCI Airport.”  Here are the predictions:

So, my prediction range using the LRC is 8.25″ to 11.o0″, which is that 150 to 200 percent of average.

Rainfall So Far At KCI Airport:

  • August 15:  0.26″
  • August 16:  0.81″
  • August 17:  0.72″
  • August 18:  0.52″
  • August 21:  0.09″
  • August 22:  0.03″
  • August 25:  0.97″
  • August 26:  1.44″
  • August 29:  1.56″
  • August 30:  0.77″
  • September 7:   0.43″
  • September 8:  0.04″

Total So Far with 24 days left:  7.64″ as of 7 AM today, and there are 16 entries that have already been passed by.  It has been rather dry to begin September, and these shorter dry spells have happened three or four times since this pattern began.  Let’s see how this week rolls through.

A Storm System Later In The Week:

This map above shows the surface forecast valid at 7 PM Thursday.  A storm is forecast to track across the northern plains and it will drag a cold front into Oklahoma, Kansas, and Iowa on Thursday evening.  There will likely be a risk of some severe thunderstorms.  The rest of the nation will be rather quiet between now and Thursday.

Kansas City Forecast:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny and breezy. The winds will be out of the south and gusting to near 30 mph.  High:  89°
  • Tonight:  Clear with a few late night clouds and a 30% chance of late night thunderstorms.  Low:  71°
  • Tuesday:  There is a 30% chance of morning showers and thunderstorms.  A few periods of clouds with the south breeze continuing at 10-25 mph.  High:  87°

Let’s see how all of this lines up, and we will go in-depth into this weather pattern on tomorrows blog.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Weather2020 blog.  Have a great day.

Gary

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TheMattHatter
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TheMattHatter

We should have a Prairie Dog, like Punxsutawney Phil to usher in the end of summer! Maybe call him, Pittsburg Pete. And if the Prairie Dog feels the heat of summer in September, its 2 more weeks of Heck. Or at least until Halloween.

Wesley
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Wesley

I could have sworn the consensus around here was September was likely to be a cool/wet month. Obviously that’s not been the case yet. Perhaps I’m losing my mind.

Michael
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Michael

Really had my hopes high that based upon the pattern that maybe for once September wouldn’t be another month of summer but I guess in Kansas September means hot not cool, no matter the pattern

MattinLV
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MattinLV

The weather app is telling me it’s 88 and my car is saying 93. Regardless, this feels like July not over a week into September.

Johnny
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Johnny

How long is it supposed to stay warm?

Mindawhen
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Mindawhen

My favorite part of the blog is here, the final branch of this lrc is spinning away and the all new shiny LRC is coming!

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Accuweather long-range forecast shows the first snow in Nov 21. 😀
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/kansas-city/64106/november-weather/329441?year=2019

TEDinSTJOE
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TEDinSTJOE

One thing about heat in the month of September is that the day it only last for a couple of hours. The sun setting much earlier now than July and August and also rising a couple of hours later the HEAT only hangs around for an hour or two. You also do not have a high intensity of sun beating down on you so it is not as oppressive. September heat has always come across to me as more dryer heat as well. Thoughts?

Urbanity
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Urbanity

One last thing, anyone notice the drought ramping up in Texas and SW Oklahoma, Extreme to Exceptional in isolated areas. How can you have exceptional drought in SW OK in one county (the most severe drought), and a county to the east have no drought??? How does that happen? I can see D2 drought perhaps, but not D4 and the next county over be normal.

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

I recorded 1.35″ of rain up in Maryville, MO yesterday morning. Very Muggy this morning for sure! Ready for some cooler Fall air. Have a great day Bloggers! Go Chiefs!
Michael

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Thanks Gary
The last gasp of this LRC….too warm.
And last night, I think Gerard said even the last half of Sept will be warm. ( I might be wrong about that )
Just surprising with the “coolish” summer we have had. But the humidity has for sure been a signature all spring/summer.

thetophat
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thetophat

Think September 2013. That was a sizzler on the heels of a very mild (even more so than 2019) summer. We haven’t had any 100 degree temps…………YET, though.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

True ! I think Labor Day weekend 2013, or close to it, we hit our only 100 degrees that year ? It was a bearable summer up until Sept.

Josh
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Josh

I don’t see it making it up to 100 at this point in the season. We are pushing middle of September. I agree with TedInStJoe, the sun angle, shortening days, and limited time to warm up with the cool mornings says 95 will be hard to reach at this point honestly. I disagree with him though about the humidity. Never can I remember a summer with all the humidity. That came from all the moisture we had this year, unbelievable, pretty close to a record for precipitation.

Stephen Winn
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Stephen Winn

I will be curious to see if this storm Thursday relates to the old pattern, or is a foreshadowing of the new. See if something like this shows up about 45 days from now.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Is it just me or are we having more shorter dry spells since July 1st than in the first half of the pattern? I know they did exist but they seem to be much more frequent.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

I agree. They are more frequent. Which is why I said surprising considering the coolish summer we had.

Observer
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Observer

The bomb cyclone from last winter, a recurring feature in this year’s LRC, would be due to arrive around Sept 24-25, right after the equinox and beginning of the transition into a new pattern. Will the developing new LRC override that feature, or can we expect it’s appearance one final time?

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Glad I am still in the hunt, but likely I will be an under on my guess. Two weeks until Fall begins, but for now it looks like summer is going to hang on. I am ready for the change in temps, but want a gradual change and to not switch to winter immediately. The tropics still look to be active and something to watch in the next few weeks.