Hurricane Dorian’s Eye Targets The Carolina’s & Probability Of Another Threat Around September 20

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Good morning bloggers,

Hurricane Dorian is grazing the Florida east coast today.  It finally started having impacts near Daytona Beach, FL last night, and this morning it is moving north and Dorian is now about to threaten the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coast lines.  Will Dorian actually make a USA landfall?  A landfall is defined to be when the eye of the hurricane touches land.  Dorian devastated the northern islands in the Bahama chain, and Grand Bahama is where Dorian stalled as a CAT 5 hurricane battering these islands with 180 to 220 mph winds for two days. Here is some of the incredible devastation in Marsh Harbor, where the Major Hurricane Dorian stalled. Our prayers and thoughts are with the people that live in these northern Bahama Islands.

There are some structures that did make it through this horrific storm.  And, thus far less then ten fatalities have been reported.  The hurricane has weakened, and it is still a dangerous storm that we are paying close attention too.  There were at least five tropical systems on this satellite picture taken yesterday afternoon.

Moisture from Fernand is heading into northern Mexico, and we will monitor this moisture closely as some of it could turn north back into the United States next week.  So, back to my question.  Will Dorian make a USA landfall?

Hurricane force winds are extending out around 60 miles from the eye of Dorian, and it is still around 100 miles offshore.  It will likely track just east of Savannah, GA and then seriously threaten landfall over the Carolina’s.  It has weakened to 105 mph, and this is still a very dangerous storm that will likely produce some significant damage near the coastal areas of South and North Carolina.  Last year it was Florence that targeted this area. That storm moved in from the east, whereas Dorian will track along the coast and then eject out to sea after it passes the mid-Atlantic states.

New Data as of 9 AM Wednesday:

Look how close Dorian is predicted to be near the South Carolina coast tomorrow afternoon.  Right at this moment, there is a good chance Dorian will turn northeast:

NFL Season Opener On Thursday Night!

The weather for most of the NFL games this opening weekend is looking dry in most areas, and hot in a few.  You can go over to Tradewx.com and actually hedge and buy contracts on the high temperature, low temperature, precipitation, and the landfall of Dorian.  Opening night is on NBC and it will feature Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay Packers coming into Soldier Field to play the Bears. The Bears season ended in a rather stunning and sad way last year in the playoffs, so let’s see how they do on opening night.  And, then Sunday, most of the other games will be played with the Kansas City Chiefs, lead by Patrick Mahomes, heading to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars.  The Chiefs will be opening up the season with three of their first four games on the road.   What will the weather be like for these games?  Take a look at Sunday’s forecast map:

As you can see above, almost every host NFL city for the season openers on Sunday is going to have pretty nice weather from Jacksonville to New York.  The only significant precipitation is predicted to be around Chicago, and that game is Thursday night not on Sunday!

The weather pattern is cycling regularly according to the LRC.  Before the new pattern sets up, it will likely get wet one more time, and then the new pattern will evolve beginning right on the first day of Autumn.  Here is one rainfall forecast from the old GFS model from the 06z (1 AM) model run:

There were early LRC indicators of a potential named storm that would arrive around September 20th in the development of this year’s LRC.  Hopefully it doesn’t materialize as it could again threaten the Bahamas and the southeast coast.  The chance of a named storm in this area is 64% based on Weather2020 historical analysis.

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading today’s blog, and have a great day.

Gary

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f00dl3EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)Cosmo73ClintMr. Pete Recent comment authors
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lucas
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lucas

Anyone see the Donald’s “revised” hurricane prediction map today? Politics aside, that’s funny stuff.

Nick
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Nick

Its the new COTUS Model. “Cheeto of the United States” model. Talk about a new… Low. 😆

Cosmo73
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Cosmo73

You have no clue, Trump is telling the people something. Did you know there are 60 patents for weather modification?

Clint
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Clint

He’s a turd with flees!

George
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George

Dorian to Florida;
I’m not touching you
I’m not touching you
I’m not touching you
I’m not touching you

Florida;
MOM!! Dorian’s being a brat again!!!

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

Well the NHC language has been walked back from “Life Threatening” to “dangerous”, as far as its impact on Florida. Maybe we should take it down another level to “Annoying Hurricane Dorian!”

steve p
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steve p

is that a small area of >12″ of precip on the GFS model in northern MO? sure it’ll change but wow! hope half of that moves over the metro.

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

WOOT! FIRST! Do I get a prize?

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

3rd place prize, but sure it will be in the mail.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
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Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

would you look at that. youre getting demoted.

Brick
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Brick

Feel so so sorry for you……

Inspector
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Inspector

lol he lives on this blog

Frankie
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Frankie

Damn y’all lay off my man Heat… down voted like crazy!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Thirdmiser!!

EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)
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EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)

Wow, that must be a record.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

I don’t recall such a large area having mandatory evacuation, my friend in Melbourne was evacuated, said police with loud speakers were driving through the streets. Seriously? This isn’t the 50’s.If someone in today’s social media platform didn’t know there was a hurricane off the coast they probably have been spending their time preparing for Armageddon and should be ready regardless. Anyhow, Dorian is a minor event for the USA, tropical force winds affecting Florida, winds at 46 mph and gusts to 55 in isolated areas but are averaging 24 mph in most places….seems like a typical Kansas wind day… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

It wasn’t over hyped. Was not certain it would stay off shore, if it had wobbled little closer all those impacts would have veriified. Came about 100 miles from a mainland disaster. Sometimes we get lucky, but this was not over typed it was a freaking Cat 5 Storm! Many years don’t even produce a single Cat 5 anywhere, let alone one threatening the US. Hype was 100% warranted

Roger
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Roger

But to say “Florida disaster” is to cry wolf.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

The hype I am referring to is the sincere belief that the likely storm movement was known and forecast by the NWS to stay far offshore Florida on Saturday morning with the rain shields over 200 miles offshore. Also knowing the slow movement would allow ample time for a regional evacuation if necessary. Just because it was a Cat 5 at the Bahamas doesn’t mean a whole lot for the USA, it’s well known that slow moving or almost stationary hurricanes condense on themselves and weaken rapidly. I was on the beach when a Cat one hit Virginia in the… Read more »

BigSteve
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BigSteve

Charleston will get the worst of it:

“Forecasters also predicted an 8.5-foot high tide at 1 p.m. in Charleston. Streets flood at 7 feet. And that will be just a taste of the storm’s surge. Forecasters expect a 10-foot high tide at about 2 a.m. Thursday, as the hurricane spins off South Carolina.”

https://www.postandcourier.com/hurricanewire/wind-speeds-steady-as-dorian-nears-sc-as-category-charleston/article_8f564b46-ceec-11e9-bbee-9fa90a7fad7f.html

Fred Souder
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Fred Souder

Hurricane Sandy was only a tropical storm at landfall. It did a ton of damage because of the large wind field pushing waves at high tide into flood prone areas that have had a lot of real estate development on them since the last storm to affect those areas several decades ago. It still gets my vote as the most over-hyped, because the hype kept coming for months and months after the storm about how unprecedented it was.

Roger
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Roger

Especially when you see “#Florida Disaster” constantly for the last 72 hours on the Weather Channel. Of course, it needs to be taken seriously. However, the sensationalism is comical.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

What do you expect from The Weather Channel? Serious weather coverage? It’s 2019, not 1997 – get with the times!

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Today looks to be a fabulous weather day in KC. We have a soccer game this afternoon and a soccer practice tonight. EOI looks to be a 9.5 to a 10. Hope we get the rain Saturday into Sunday morning. Plan to do lawn work Saturday and get my seed and fall fertilizer down. 16 weeks until Christmas! Happy Hump Day!