Good morning bloggers,
Hurricane Dorian is grazing the Florida east coast today. It finally started having impacts near Daytona Beach, FL last night, and this morning it is moving north and Dorian is now about to threaten the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coast lines. Will Dorian actually make a USA landfall? A landfall is defined to be when the eye of the hurricane touches land. Dorian devastated the northern islands in the Bahama chain, and Grand Bahama is where Dorian stalled as a CAT 5 hurricane battering these islands with 180 to 220 mph winds for two days. Here is some of the incredible devastation in Marsh Harbor, where the Major Hurricane Dorian stalled. Our prayers and thoughts are with the people that live in these northern Bahama Islands.
There are some structures that did make it through this horrific storm. And, thus far less then ten fatalities have been reported. The hurricane has weakened, and it is still a dangerous storm that we are paying close attention too. There were at least five tropical systems on this satellite picture taken yesterday afternoon.
Moisture from Fernand is heading into northern Mexico, and we will monitor this moisture closely as some of it could turn north back into the United States next week. So, back to my question. Will Dorian make a USA landfall?
Hurricane force winds are extending out around 60 miles from the eye of Dorian, and it is still around 100 miles offshore. It will likely track just east of Savannah, GA and then seriously threaten landfall over the Carolina’s. It has weakened to 105 mph, and this is still a very dangerous storm that will likely produce some significant damage near the coastal areas of South and North Carolina. Last year it was Florence that targeted this area. That storm moved in from the east, whereas Dorian will track along the coast and then eject out to sea after it passes the mid-Atlantic states.
New Data as of 9 AM Wednesday:
Look how close Dorian is predicted to be near the South Carolina coast tomorrow afternoon. Right at this moment, there is a good chance Dorian will turn northeast:
NFL Season Opener On Thursday Night!
The weather for most of the NFL games this opening weekend is looking dry in most areas, and hot in a few. You can go over to Tradewx.com and actually hedge and buy contracts on the high temperature, low temperature, precipitation, and the landfall of Dorian. Opening night is on NBC and it will feature Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay Packers coming into Soldier Field to play the Bears. The Bears season ended in a rather stunning and sad way last year in the playoffs, so let’s see how they do on opening night. And, then Sunday, most of the other games will be played with the Kansas City Chiefs, lead by Patrick Mahomes, heading to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars. The Chiefs will be opening up the season with three of their first four games on the road. What will the weather be like for these games? Take a look at Sunday’s forecast map:
As you can see above, almost every host NFL city for the season openers on Sunday is going to have pretty nice weather from Jacksonville to New York. The only significant precipitation is predicted to be around Chicago, and that game is Thursday night not on Sunday!
The weather pattern is cycling regularly according to the LRC. Before the new pattern sets up, it will likely get wet one more time, and then the new pattern will evolve beginning right on the first day of Autumn. Here is one rainfall forecast from the old GFS model from the 06z (1 AM) model run:
There were early LRC indicators of a potential named storm that would arrive around September 20th in the development of this year’s LRC. Hopefully it doesn’t materialize as it could again threaten the Bahamas and the southeast coast. The chance of a named storm in this area is 64% based on Weather2020 historical analysis.
Thank you for spending a few minutes reading today’s blog, and have a great day.