Hurricane Dorian Weakens – Can Florida Take A Deep Breath?

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Good morning bloggers,

Hurricane Dorian has weakened to below Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Look at the difference from this morning to a couple of days ago:

So, as one of the bloggers suggested, it looks like Florida can take a big exhale.  The NAM model out this morning never has Dorian making landfall and keeping the effects far enough offshore to limit impacts.  Other models have it closer to the South and North Carolina coasts, so let’s keep monitoring this closely.

Back home, in KC, there is an effect from this system. A cold front is moving through with maybe an isolated shower or thunderstorm near the front.  This would likely be a more active cold front, but there is a broad sinking motion of air over the central United States to compensate for the rising motion and heat release from Dorian.

The next chance of rain in KC will likely be Saturday night into Sunday. We will go into this chance in tomorrows blog.

Gary

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Ted in STJoe
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Ted in STJoe

New cycle will be starting.

Ted in STJoe
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Ted in STJoe

Hell on earth in the storm.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

To see the news coverage of Florida “bracing” for Dorian, you would think a direct hit was coming. It’s basically a breezy day coming with some scattered showers. Had to chuckle to see the storm battering Daytona Beach. OK, pretend you don’t see all the folks walking on the beach!

John
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John

Well the May 31st hurricane prediction had this storm pegged to curve around the SE coast and head back out to the ocean, while looking at the map of development hotspots and the arrows. However, the forecast on the blog on Friday had Dorian slamming into the east coast of Florida around West Palm Beach. All I have heard from Gary the last several weeks are the models are flawed and terrible. Could have stuck with the longer range forecast from May and it was almost perfect. Instead the models were trusted 4 days out? I know in KC the… Read more »

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I don’t know if you can claim that the lack of widespread rain along the cold front here is due to Dorian, as many times cold fronts actually erupt with thunderstorms and become stronger when hurricanes are nearby due to air being compressed in the same way you claim the air is being made more stable.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Gary- do you see Tropical Storm Fernand having any impact on the weather in KC? Will it get caught in the SW flow and ejected our way or will die a slow death in northern Mexico? I see there are multiple rain chances between the 12th and the 16th. I wasn’t sure if that had anything to do with TS Fernand or just the normal LRC pattern.

Fred Langley
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Fred Langley

Dorian now taking aim on the Carolinas in next day or so. I like to view the raw NWS text products to keep up with latest discussions. https://textwx.com/products?cwa=CHS&product=TCV

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

Here are my August totals for Maryville, MO. I recorded 10 rain events with a monthly total of 6.92″ of total rain. The most was on August 12th, with 1.65″. The least was on August 31st with .05″. Can’t wait to see what September brings. Have a great day Bloggers!
Michael

Michael
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Michael

Is it just me or am I missing the blog?

Gary
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Gary

Any insight for weather next week during the American Royal BBQ?

Mike H
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Mike H

332 days since October 6 of last year. 33 days to go.

Craig
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Craig

Wrong metaphor, Gary.
I think you meant “can Florida exhale”.

Farmgirl
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Farmgirl

Good morning Gary. I am loving the dry week after last weeks deluge of Hoping it continues in to the fall as I would love to get some trail riding in locally. Any hints of rain next week….hopefully, just garden variety and not the ‘inches” of rain at one time.

LenexaDoc
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LenexaDoc

First! Always wanted to post that. Must be a slow weather day around here…
Well, I was first, but my comment was in “moderation” for a couple of hours. LOL

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

lol…weakens a bit? It’s a mere shadow of what it once was.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
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Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

you cant see the eye

steve p
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steve p

its back over open water, PLENTY of time (and warm water resources) to restrengthen……