Powerful Category 5 Hurricane Dorian Is Our Top Story

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good morning bloggers,

On this Labor Day morning, there is a powerful Category 5 hurricane blasting the Bahamas.  It is stalling, and expected to make the north turn.  This storm fits into the cycling pattern perfectly, and through analysis of all of the cycles, it could have been predicted better.  Weather2020 has been predicting these tropical systems with incredible accuracy for years. Take a look at the prediction that was in the 1Weather app:

This is the prediction made by our weather team, and more specifically Jeff Penner, almost six months ago.  We predicted a tropical system for this week based on what had already happened in the first three LRC cycles in this year’s pattern. We did not know the strength of the potential system, and we did know that there was a 64% chance of one being near the Bahamas.  Great job Jeff!

The anticipated north turn has started:

Now, where will this system track from here?  Let’s take a look.

The highly anticipated stalling of the hurricane has happened this morning, and a turn to the northwest has also seemingly commenced.  This is good news for all of Florida, and at the same time there will still be some impacts along the coast.  Will it wobble to the west a bit?  Will it stay just far enough offshore to limit the high impacts from this major hurricane.  The hurricane will likely weaken to a CAT 2 storm as it approaches North Carolina.  The most likely USA landfall location appears to be North Carolina.

Kansas City Weather:

Did summer ever settle in?  I would say it did not.  We didn’t even reach 95° this month in KC, and there were only four 95° days all summer long with the hottest temperature being 97°.  All four of those 95° days came in a row in the middle of July.  Here are the August stats:

It is the 30th wettest year so far, and the 29 wettest years include the next four months.  So, we will be climbing up that list.  For now, it is going to be a fairly dry start to September.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the blog featuring the LRC and the cycling patterns of North America.  Have a great day!

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

18
Leave a Reply

avatar
9 Comment threads
9 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
11 Comment authors
GaryFrankieJoeKWesleyRockdoc Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Frankie
Guest
Frankie

What is the likelihood that we get another blizzard this winter in KC?!

Wesley
Guest
Wesley

Doesn’t the blizzard come back around sometime soonish?

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Looks like the Space Coast will get scraped pretty good. Here’s the 06z HWRF.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=05L&pkg=ref

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Hope everyone is having a relaxing labor day, I’m sure Floridians are a little more relaxed. Have a friend in Melbourne and she was packed up and ready to head out of town, but got encouraging news Sat evening the storm was likely to stay far enough offshore that her location should be okay even though she lives on a waterway. Gary do you agree with the NOAA that mid September we will see temperatures quite warm? The 6-14 day forecast shows most of the nation above average, I think that is peculiar with the precipitation forecast to be above… Read more »

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

If your friend is on a waterway, storm surge is predicted to push inland coupled with heavy rain. Melbourne area is in the zone of strong tropical force or Cat 1 winds. Coupled with high King tides she may want to reconsider. 6-8 foot of water is nothing to sneeze at.

Terry
Guest
Terry

I guess they’re still planning on playing the game in Jacksonville Florida on Sunday

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

“We didn’t even reach 95° this month in KC, and there were only four 95° days all summer long with the hottest temperature being 97°. All four of those 95° days came in a row in the middle of July.”

That’s fine with me!

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Are you still expecting a wet September?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

To say there is a chance of a tropical system lurking near Bahamas during Labor day, peak Hurricane season, isn’t going out on much of a limb. Forecasting an actual hurricane to be there would have been. Read the forecast, it said there may be a tropical tropical system, it doesn’t say there will be one. That’s like saying there might be one…. might not be one. That’s different than saying there WILL be a tropical system impacting Bahamas, now that’s actually forecasting a hurricane before it happens. That single sentence doesn’t do it for me, if LRC can predict… Read more »

Observer
Guest
Observer

Gary – I think I understand how you make long term forecasts once the LRC is firmly established each year. But I’m curious how you make them now — in the dying weeks of the last LRC — for time periods that stretch well into the new LRC. We have yet to see what that new pattern in early October will be, but your app predicts clear into November. Could you help me understand how this fits with the LRC?