Dorian CAT 5; August Statistics Day; The Next Cold Front

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Good Sunday bloggers,

Our weather is mostly calm, so we will start with the latest on Dorian.

Oh boy! As of 7 AM, Dorian became a category 5 with 160 mph winds. It is moving west at 8 mph and will likely slow down even more. This is not only bad news for the Bahamas, but it opens the door for track changes.

Also, in the satellite era there has never been a category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin for 5 consecutive years, until now.

We will show a series of maps every 24 hours and you will see how slow this massive, perfect machine will be tracking.

SUNDAY 5 PM: Dorian is drifting through the northern Bahamas. The islands may take it down to a CAT 4.

MONDAY 5 PM: Dorian is still in the Bahamas near Freeport. My goodness what a mess for the Bahamas, but at least Nassau will avoid the worst.

TUESDAY 5 PM: It is still near Freeport and you can see there is a northward turn. The timing of the turn is critical as it will decide how close to the USA coast Dorian gets.

WEDNESDAY 5 PM: Dorian is east of Jacksonville, the sight of the first Chiefs game next Sunday. Dorian will be long gone by then and hopefully will not leave any reminders it was there.

THURSDAY 5 PM: Dorian is now east of South Carolina as a Category 2 or 3. So, as is, the storm stays offshore the whole time side swiping the coast. This would be so much better than a direct hit. Also, the west side of these hurricanes usually are the more docile. The hurricane force winds extend 30 miles out from the center. So, if Dorian can stay more than 30 miles offshore, the USA mainland impacts will be lower. If it tracks along the coast less than 30 miles away then this could be a big problem. We will watch this closely. Again, the timing of the north turn is critical.

Now to our weather. It is already September, so this means today is August statistics day. We ended up with 7.65″ of rain which puts our yearly total to 42.04″. We are ranked at the 30th wettest year on record with 4 months to go. We will see a few warm and cold fronts pass through the next 7 days, but we are not expecting much rain.

SUNDAY: Today we will see the low clouds gradually break up this afternoon. They are not moving as there is almost no wind. So, if we are to see the sun today, they will have to break up because they will not move out. Highs will be 75°-80°, but 70°-75° if the clouds hang tough.

LABOR DAY: A warm front will be moving through, making for a good last pool day of 2019. Highs will reach the mid and upper 80s. Any thunderstorms with the front will likely stay along I-80.

TUESDAY: We will heat up to around 90° as a cold front approaches. There is not much upper level energy with the front, so we do not expect much thunderstorm activity.

WEDNESDAY: The front will move away as a weak disturbance tracks in from the northwest. So, the front and disturbance may generate a few showers and thunderstorms. As you saw above, we do not need any rain. Lows will be 55°-60° with highs in the 70s.

Have a great rest of your Labor day weekend.

Please DO NOT DRINK/TEXT and drive.

Jeff Penner

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MattinLV
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MattinLV

My TradeWX contract for Dorian to hit the Cape Canaveral zip code is looking pretty close right now. Put it in on August 30th.

George
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George

I was born and raised in Jacksonville. Have lots of memories of Hurricanes & TS’s. Most were near misses going in north or south of us. Still have lots of family there. They know what to do. It is the tourists and first timers that will be the issue. They are usually the ones that make the bad decisions. I hope all goes well for everyone no matter where it goes.

Terry
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Terry

You guys knows this thing goes up like they said by the side of Eastern Florida this very will Effect that chiefs game next Sunday coastal flooding

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Now its up to 180mph with 220 mph gusts

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Yes. It’s a monster

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Fall has begun!!!

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Radar Omega says 180 mph now and moving straight west.
Will be the strongest in modern history to hit the Bahamas
It needs to start that northward turn NOW !

Terry
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Terry

Its now cat 5 with winds of 175mph

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Why is it I feel they should know, or did know, that Dorian was likely to track offshore of Florida? It’s always panic button time for newsmakers. Secondly, how did our LRC man possibly get it so wrong as he thought a further south track, south of Melbourne landfall. Euro cleaned the GFS’s and LRC’s clock on this one.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Nobody knew…except you I guess.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Shhh ….trolling much ? Only twice… so far
And 1…2…3….go

( have a good one Heat …its beautiful out. Get out and enjoy it ! )

Name Changer like Richard
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Name Changer like Richard

Trolling? says the person who has been on this blog under at least 4 names…….Deny it all you want, the blog administrator could validate it if he cared to ALICE

Roger
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Roger

Early last week, the models had Dorian weak and curving up the East Coast. Then, during the middle of the week, the forecasts changed to a straight west track. Now, it’s back to curving away from land. Very peculiar indeed.

Emaw
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Emaw

Where did we end up average temperature wise for August?

Inspector
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Inspector

Nice write up Jeff.

Frankie
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Frankie

Happy (meteorological) fall everyone!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

So a high of 73 today if the clouds don’t break up?

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Happy 1st day of Meteorological Fall!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Real fall in about 3 weeks