Dorian Track Changes; Any Rain Around Here?

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Good Saturday bloggers,

We have two main subjects to address, Dorian and our Labor day weekend forecast. Let’s start with Dorian.

Dorian as of 7 AM was a category 4 with 145 mph winds, moving west at 12 mph.

Saturday afternoon it will be approaching the Bahamas as a category 4, possibly a 5.

Dorian will likely be turning north as it gets about 100 miles east of Florida. This is not set in stone, but there is a strong trend in this direction. This would mean Florida has some heavy rain and 30-50 mph wind gusts, much better than a CAT 4.

On this data, Dorian is impacting the Carolinas as a category 2-3 Tuesday-Thursday. So, this would not be good, but let’s see what happens. Not only is this timed for Tuesday-Thursday, so the track could change again. But, if there is a change, it could turn more offshore. We will take it one state at a time, and right now it looks like Florida will avoid the worst.

Now, let’s get to subject two, our weather. We are tracking two disturbances, one in western Kansas and another in eastern Nebraska. They are both moving southeast. So, the one in western Kansas will likely stay south of our area. The one in Nebraska will move through this afternoon and evening. It will be in a weakened state, which means we will see lots of clouds and perhaps a few rain showers. There is an area of low clouds across the eastern 3/4 of Missouri that you cannot see on this satellite picture. These are drifting west and may slip in underneath the high and mid level clouds coming in from the west.

if we do not get any rain today, I do not think anybody will complain as we have seen quite a bit of rain this year. Officially for KC, we are around 4″ above average for August, 124% above average rainfall since June 1st and we are nearly 15″ of rain above average for the year. At this moment we are ranked as the 30th wettest month, but we still have 4 months to go. The wettest year ever was 1961 when we saw 60.25″ of rain. We are getting there fast. Also, we are guaranteed of having an above average rainfall year as we stand about 3″ above the yearly average!

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: We are in for some nice weather. Today is the only day with a chance for a few showers along with lots of clouds. Tonight there may be some fog around, bit overall it looks good this weekend. The last pool day of the year, Labor day, will be a good day for the pool.

Have a happy and safe Labor day weekend.

There is a DRUNK DRIVING WARNING in effect. Please DO NOT drink/text and drive.

Jeff Penner

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JobuTim in Lone JackMattinLVThree7sBlue Flash Recent comment authors
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Jobu
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Jobu

Rain drops keep falling on my head!

Huge drops in the Northland. Not many, but. Enough for the windshield wipers.

Tim in Lone Jack
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Tim in Lone Jack

Your seeing a full on case of modelitis by NHC, most mets including Gary. This has nothing to do with the LRC and everything to do with the the strength of the ridge. Sometimes you have to look at it now and how it compared to position and environment the day before. Yesterday the models diverged with a majority forecasting a weaker ridge, today’s sampling of the environment in Carolinas/Georgia indicated the reality was a stronger ridge than what yesterday’s models forecasted. That is why the storm is still moving west and the models are nudging back west. Its not… Read more »

MattinLV
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MattinLV

Signed up for TradeWX. Last night I picked my contract for Cape Canaveral for landfall which was against what everyone was thinking yesterday on the further south impact.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Who wins if the hurricane never makes landfall anywhere?

MattinLV
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MattinLV

Not sure. I know on one of my picks for the next hurricane is has to be within 75 miles of the zip code. Its different for every contract depending on how far out, how long away, etc. Its fun.

MMike
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MMike

Hi Joe, Come on, which is it? Yesterday, the LRC gave us insight that the hurricane would track south to near Miami, striking West Palm Beach where Gary said he has had it the whole time….. now the LRC from months ago gave us insight that it will track north. Which insight is it? Its okay to say we just aren’t real sure…nontheless, i hope it stays enough off shore so that property and life aren’t at such a risk. There is a prediction for a big one in the NE gulf Sept. 11th-18th, Can you give us the insight… Read more »

Three7s
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Three7s

I remember Gary saying awhile back that this would go out to sea. As he posted this morning, he was wrong in saying that it might make landfall. Pretty straight-forward, right?

Brick
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Brick

13 replies as of 10:35…3 from heat miser…I am not trolling but you need to get out more!!!!!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

A CAT 2/3 in the Carolinas is a huge step down form a strong CAT 4 in FL….if that happens, this story just got far far less serious.

Larry
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Larry

Jeff, NW Lawrence stats for comparison:
August: 22.51″
May-Aug: 46.04″
YTD: 56.33″
+18.79″ above the ANNUAL average as of today.

I think NW Lawrence is on track to break the annual precipitation record.

Larry

Kurt
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Kurt

St. Joseph stats for comparison August: 7.19” Jun-Aug 14.07” YTD: 29.27” +3.11” above annual average through yesterday YTD in 2018: 12.62” While much wetter than a year ago, nowhere close to record wet in this area of the region. Interstesting to see vast precipitation differences. Would be cool to see snap from Omaha to Des Moines over to Columbia down to Springfield to Wichita up to Manhattan and Lincoln mapping YTD precipitation and ranks Just to sum up nothing unusual about this being overly wet where I’m located but prior dry years is giving the perception we are really wet… Read more »

KS Jones
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KS Jones

12.64” in August and 40.5” YTD for this area midway between Manhattan & Marysville.

Big j
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Big j

I like it, the rain that was forecast most of the week for today has turned to sunshine and the hurricane (that was supposed to be a tropical depression, no wait, a killer hurricane) that was to destroy FL may give them some heavy rain, probably less than a typical night in MO. Hooray for nowcasting!! Meanwhile every Lowe’s, Home Depot , gas station and grocery store in the state of Florida is counting their cash this am .

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

HuH? They have said very openly the whole time the track after the next few days is highly uncertain due to weak steering currents. You have to prepare for the very real chance when a CAT 4 is barreling in your direction. LoL…are you just looking for something to complain about?

Big j
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Big j

Naw, just chuckling at the hype my friend. Same every time.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

The current NHC track is the far western outlier of all the guidance. I suspect that is so the people of Florida will continue to pay attention for another day or so. At least that’s the only explanation I can think of why the NHC would disregard the guidance.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=5&year=2019&title=05

MikeL
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MikeL

During the past days the computer models were forecasting a Florida hit and now they show Dorian going out to sea. Yet we’re supposed to accept long term climate change forecasts as being accurate. Hmmm…

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

NO, its not showing it going out to sea..its showing it going into GA or the Carolinas

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Each new run of the track seems to have it curving more and more back to the east. Guess we will see.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

The majority of the models show it never making a landfall.

http://flhurricane.com/clarkmodelanimator.php?year=2019&storm=5

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

It is often easier to forecast long term trends than short term events. For example, one can confidently predict the stock market will generally go up, but predicting where it will go in the short term is difficult.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

The National news outlets seem really sad in their tone this morning that this might actually turn back out to sea. How ridiculous.

Observer
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Observer

The irony here is that the initial tropical forecast months ago suggested this year’s LRC would steer hurricanes north away from Florida — exactly what is apparently about to happen. But in yesterday’s discussion, the LRC gave us the insight that this hurricane would go nearly straight west into Florida, with landfall north of Miami. It would appear the LRC will always be right, no matter the actual outcome.