Contest Rain Totals, Hurricane Dorian Tricks, & Trading On The Weather

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Good morning bloggers,

Wow! What a night!  The rain was still falling in Kansas City as I started writing this blog entry this morning.  We have a lot to go over today, including an interesting concept of trading on the weather that I will finish this blog with today.  Let’s begin with what I wrote over two weeks ago:  “How much rain do you think will fall between now and the first day of fall, which is September 23rd?  The same pattern that set up last fall will continue until right around that date, and then a massive transition takes place between September 23rd and October 7th.  In those two weeks the new LRC will set up.  So, let’s have another challenge.  I am predicting 150 to 200 percent of average rainfall.  Kansas City averages around 5.5 inches of rain between now and September 23:  So my prediction is for somewhere between 8.25″ and 11.00″ of rain to fall at KCI Airport.

So, my prediction range using the LRC is 8.25″ to 11.o0″, which is that 150 to 200 percent of average.

Rainfall So Far At KCI Airport:

  • August 15:  0.26″
  • August 16:  0.81″
  • August 17:  0.72″
  • August 18:  0.52″
  • August 21:  0.09″
  • August 22:  0.03″
  • August 25:  0.97″
  • August 26:  1.44″
  • August 29:  1.56″
  • August 30:  0.77″

Total So Far with 24 days left:  7.17″ as of 7 AM today.  Eleven entries are already out of the contest.  The rain is about to end this morning, and there is a chance of more rain tonight into Saturday, although the computer models have backed off of Saturday’s rain. Let’s see how it looks as the new data rolls in today.

Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane Dorian is now a strong Category 2 hurricane.  It is going to take a left turn and likely begin moving due west over the weekend. The sooner it turns left, the more likely it will take aim on south Florida.  Using the LRC, we have been expecting a farther south track as the steering currents aloft weaken.  And, there will likely be a slowing down of Dorian. Dorian is likely going to become a Category 3, and then possibly a Category 4 Major Hurricane as it nears the Florida peninsula.

We have been expecting a left turn, and it should happen in the next day or so.  If it turns faster, then Miami could be a target. I have been favoring West Palm Beach the entire time. Where do you think it will make landfall?

There is a new regulated trading platform for weather. Weather impacts businesses world wide from heat to cold, and from drought to floods.  Hurricanes have extreme and disastrous effects on businesses and now there is a trading platform where you can purchase contracts, like stocks, but on weather.  It is at Tradewx.com.  Next week, our weather blog will begin a transition over to that platform, and I wanted to give you a heads up.  It will allow us to share our LRC Weather Insights with a more national platform.  Right now, you can purchase contracts on predicting where hurricane Dorian will make landfall.  Here is a video:

Let us know what you think of this concept.  We will share a lot more on this next week as we begin our transition over to that site.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Weather Blog featuring the LRC.  Have a great day.

Gary

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Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Looks like Dorian will curve out far east to sea, little or no impact on Florida. NHC track is on the far western side of model guidance, so it’s not as close as they show it. We still don’t have a clue on forecasting long range movement of hurricanes.

Craig
Guest
Craig

latest. Now 125mph sustained and deepening.
comment image

Dana Jensen
Guest
Dana Jensen

With Thursday night’s rain, did this become the wettest rainy season on record? I know that we were just a couple places behind 1961’s totals.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

I admit I know nothing about trading. ( no surprise there, right ?) But for those of you who are knowledgeable in it, how many of you will participate in this ? And where are all the congrats/ kudos to Gary ! Oh that’s right there haven’t been any yet. Except me. I wished him and Jeff luck on their new endevour. Even though I won’t participate in it I still wished them luck. Everyone congratulated him on opening the conference in Geneva. But not now ? Maybe due to uncertainty of where this will leave the blog. And wow… Read more »

Jobu
Guest
Jobu

I think it’s a great idea to hedge the weather. Short insurance stocks, buy home improvement stocks when the hurricane hits. Hold them long though.

I do this today and make a weeks salary off it usually.

Jobu
Guest
Jobu

Not only that, think of the LRC and how much it would save construction companies. Forget committing to a road repavement, use the LRC and hedge it, and plan an extra week in your bids.

South of Olathe
Guest
South of Olathe

Gary, I have family in New Orleans. What are the chances that Dorian goes over Florida then regains strength in the gulf and heads towards the New Orleans area?

Backwoods4ever
Guest
Backwoods4ever

2.8″ of rain in Tightwad for this event. 9.4″ for the month. Looks to be over for awhile. Could use a month of dry weather for sure

Craig
Guest
Craig

The track of Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
comment image?w=800&h=480

Kstater
Guest
Kstater

24.2 inches for the month of august in NW Lawrence. Crazy.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Linn Valley, KS got 7.5″ last night! 😨
I feel very lucky to have escaped with 1″ out of that monster MCS. REDICULOUS YEAR!!

Mark
Guest
Mark

In reality, betting on weather is no different than a “Snowflake Contest”, or a “How Much Rain is Going to Fall Between Now and September 23rd” contest. Seems like a dumb thing to waste money on though, due to the unpredictability of the weather.

Kathy
Guest
Kathy

I think if we were measuring total rainfall in Cass County this year, it would be double that of KCI

Name changer like Richard
Guest
Name changer like Richard

All these judgmental comments are on par with the type of society we have become. Politically correct people are the root of the problem and eventually catches up with them. First and foremost, Weather based trading has been around forever, crops, futures, commodities and so forth. Moreover, people bet on MMA/UFC and boxing and those are two people in the ring killing each other, most suffer severe injuries long term and some die, isn’t betting on that xxxx immoral? We love our football and we bet on it. millions watch it every week, did we stop all our betting activities… Read more »

Adam
Guest
Adam

Amen to this. Don’t let the depressed personalities get you worked up though man. They can live in their fear and misery on their own. 🙂

Mother Nature
Guest
Mother Nature

morality ≠ political correctness.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

BS…So Antifa is doing what they are doing based on morality? Don’t you know one of their key principles is being politically correct. Morality is doing the right thing at the right time and for the right reasons. It is treating fellow man and woman with respect and dignity. Being politically correct is nothing more than playing to your audience and shifting view points to meet the needs of others feelings. Otherwise, it is being fake and phony. Notice the “political” in politically. Politicians get elected and paid to lie and be fake. You do the math. Helping a neighbor,… Read more »

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

“Morality is doing the right thing at the right time and for the right reasons.” Betting on the weather just for the sake of betting on the weather is not doing the right thing for the right reasons. So yes it IS morality. What next – do we bet on when the next big volcano will erupt? How about betting how many people will be killed in the next big hurricane? Maybe we should start betting on how many people will get killed in car accidents in the next big snowstorm. Or bet on when the next big asteroid strikes… Read more »

Mother Nature
Guest
Mother Nature

Maybe you misread my post? The ≠ sign means “does not equal”. Antifa is as much of a political boogeyman as the “alt-right”. Those groups are almost more useful to their political opponents to use as strawmen than how much they actually represent America. The great majority of us in the middle find both extremes distasteful and not representative of what we believe. At its heart morality is about fairness and treating people with respect. To me and a great many others, the idea of making a profit rooting for the suffering of others seems to lie in opposition to… Read more »

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Agreed

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Great post! For those liberals who hate Trump, just remember…political correctness gone mad in a large part of what got Trump elected. Think about that. 😉

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

You and your ilk will believe anything, ie, our military defeated King George III’s Air Force during the American revolution:
“Our army manned the air, it rammed the ramparts, it took over airports, it did everything it had to do” -Trump’s 4th of July speech

Name Changer like Richard
Guest
Name Changer like Richard

KS Jones,

And you and yours are tone deaf, ignore reality and live in a media consumed world that will believe whatever you hear or read on the internet.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Since you are dead against polite conversation, let me say you slobbering goobers believe everything old lardass Trump spews in his hate-filled screeds.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I am sorry Name changer, but, as far as I can tell from the video, this is not commodities trading. There is no physical item that will eventually change hands after the bets are made. As far as I can tell, it is nothing more than making bets on weather events and what will strike where. You guess right, you win. You guess wrong, you lose. No different than betting on the winner of a football game – and just like betting on a football game, there will be no physical commodity one is betting on the price direction of.… Read more »

Name Changer like Richard
Guest
Name Changer like Richard

Now, First, I was using the commodities as comparative example, not an exact representation. Second, sports has little or no consequences, are you kidding me? Look up the average life span of a boxer, fighter and football player. Furthermore, research quality of life. Much like the mass domestic abuse issues, we turn a blind eye to the massive repercussions of playing these sports because we get entertained by it. Think about that for a minute. Also, betting on the track of a storm is no different than chasing a storm and using said material for personal fame or gain is… Read more »

Mother Nature
Guest
Mother Nature

How about organized dogfighting? Are you totally cool with that too? If I say that humans betting on dogs killing one another is immoral am I just being politically correct?

If you think so then I would highly encourage you to do more research on what political correctness is and is not.

Craig
Guest
Craig

Brand new NHC update has Dorian pegged as a 140-mph Cat 4 as it approaches the FL coast on Monday.
Ugh.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDOr9sDWsAEDywK?format=png&name=small

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Recorded .25″ up here in Maryville, MO this morning. Just 15 mile south of us around the Nodaway-Andrew County line received 3.5″ of rain! Hard to believe there is that much difference in one county! Have a safe and blessed Labor Day weekend Bloggers!
Michael

Nate
Guest
Nate

Yeah, Yeah…people say it’s horrible, unethical, then turn around and do it. Kind of like porn, prostitution, etc

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Betting on the weather? How bizarre. I won’t be doing it but I found myself laughing for some odd reason.

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

Weather trading is a real thing. This is going to be interesting. UNG is on the NYSE and is the US Natural Gas Fund. Harsh winters foreseen ahead of time in natural gas heavy markets could earn you a little extra scratch.

Larry in Shawnee
Guest
Larry in Shawnee

People have been betting on the weather for decades. You can buy future contracts on the price of wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, etc. You think part of the decision process doesn’t include betting on what the weather will do in the future?

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Gary
Can you clarify.
When will the transition happen. And by transition do you mean slowly or abruptly. One day the blog is current format, then the next day it is on the trading site ?
And will you continue to write a daily blog ?
Will there be a comment section …for a fee ?
I think a lot of us would like to know more if you have time to clarify what it entails for all of us.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Good morning Willie in Topeka, curious how much rain you had overnight since you’re not too far from my location. I had 3.3″ at 7:00am.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Howdy Rich, I had 3.25″ in SW Topeka.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Hi MikeL, thanks!

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

I’ll check over lunch today, wasn’t able to look this morning. I’m guessing that’s more than we got based on radar last night. Although radar is sometimes off by a few miles it seems. I’ll check back!

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

Had 3.75” here in North Topeka. Quite the soaker, didn’t seem like that much but we will take it!

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Nice, that is a good rain! I’m up to 17.45″ for August with 1 day to go. Can I get to 20?…

MightyMinni
Member
MightyMinni

Good morning,

Measured 2.50″ as of 8AM at 127th and Pflumm this morning.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Betting on significant weather events is not great, in my opinion. You can bet on so many other things, pretty much anything you want on a national level. But placing money on the track of a hurricane, a hurricane that will devastate families, cities, communities, is not right. I may be misunderstanding what is actually going on, but either way, this is not something that I am behind and I know many can agree with me. I know my opinion doesn’t really matter, but I am confused Gary as to why you decided to go in this direction. Sure, there… Read more »

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Who profits from this is not addressed in the short video. So, contracts are purchased, then said contract(s) holder “roots” for a certain city/region to get hit, then makes or loses money off that happening or not happening? Meanwhile, who sold the contracts makes money regardless?

Gary please explain this in more detail. On the surface, with only a short 1 minute commercial style video for an explanation, this just seems wrong.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Future events, including weather, are predicted, anticipated, and traded on every single day in the stock market as investors try to foresee future events…and I’m guessing many, while feeling bad for the victims, cheer when they get it right and make money. This is not a new concept.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Large scale betting on weather leads to all sorts of insider possibilities…deliberate weather manipulation comes to mind…kind of like insider manipulation of markets. Then there is Don Vito saying, “Lezak, we have a lot of money riding on this forecast. You better deliver the goods or else!” Or how about…”Wow, I had 3″ of unexpected rain overnight! Someone made a killing!” Makes me sad really.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Its a good think that we don’t have the ability to manipulate the weather beyond a little cloud seeding.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Yep, and it’s a good thing no nation, group or person would want to increase that ability for economic, geo-political or personal gain.

Mother Nature
Guest
Mother Nature

Or hurricane nuking

MMike
Guest
MMike

Gary, Are you saying that you predicted a major hurricane to hit the east coast? You predicted Dorian?? Per your blog on May 31st, you commented on weaker storms near the east coast and maybe one or two stronger ones in the Gulf. Plus, your targeted period for a potential stronger storm was Sept. 11th-18th, this one is coming in a few weeks early. Will there be another one or is this the Sept. 11th-18th storm? “It fits to have one a few days later. So, let’s keep monitoring. The part of the pattern that produced Barry is returning in… Read more »

Jaxon
Guest
Jaxon

The 05/31 tropical forecast on this blog discusses at length the LRC forecast that tropical systems would curve out to sea rather than strike Florida. The map even showed the arrows curving away. But Dorian is plowing west about to destroy the Atlantic coast of Florida — explicitly NOT one of the “hot spots” in the 2019 LRC tropical forecast in the 05/31 blog. And Dorian couldn’t be further from Barry. What “reflection” is there? Barry began as an extratropical (over land) low that drifted into the gulf from northern Florida and then curved into the LA/TX coast! That’s entirely… Read more »

Jaxon
Guest
Jaxon

Fascinating endeavor by Gary. Seems ripe for SEC investigation to me. So Gary promotes a weather forecast trading platform that allows others to place bets on future weather events. At the same time he profits from his partnership with that venture, on the side he sells access to long-range forecasts — the type of which are directly implicated in the weather trading market. Seems like the CEO of Amazon selling me some non-public info (a forecast) about the company so I can make some profitable trades on the market (weather market) wherein I make a profit trading AMZN shares which… Read more »

John
Guest
John

What are our rain chances during the day tomorrow?

Mark
Guest
Mark

I’m betting on a 50% chance.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Interesting concept, I am surprised the CFTC approved it. IDK Gary, at the very least it will put forecasters on a level playing field (maybe we’ll find out you’re like Tom Brady and Bastardi is like Ryan Leaf), yet in my mind I cannot think of why anyone with limited meteorologic knowledge would ever waste the money, it would be like playing online poker against Phil Helmuth and the rest of that entourage. Maybe it’s more interesting than a slot machine, or more accessible than sports betting, but probably not for me…heck I thought it would only rain 7.77 thru… Read more »

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

So does this mean the blog will be more ( or strictly ) National rather than local starting next week ?
And will we have to pay to read/comment on the blog….
Good luck with your new endeavor Gary and Jeff.
But I agree with Skylar.
Everything changes. Nothing stays the same. Its all about the bottom line.

Name changer
Guest
Name changer

It will be so nice not having to read your posts anymore Alice….Richard….Andrew

Bill
Guest
Bill

The fact that you can gamble on where a life-threatening storm will hit is immoral. This storm is going to wipe out communities, possibly kill people. This is going to encourage people to CHEER for the storm to hit Miami-Dade or Broward counties. It is reprehensible that this concept even exists. The fact that you, Gary, are moving into this area is disappointing. I’m totally cool with you selling your forecasts to help people, but to have people use your concept to bet on natural disasters is extremely disappointing. To be honest, if this platform changes over to that format,… Read more »

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Same. I’m out too.
But I dont think Gary will miss this blog, or having to moderate it.
He is on to bigger stuff. Has been trending that way for a long time.
They combined the kshb blog with this one. Then dissolved kshb blog altogether.
Personalized forecasts became a thing ( for a fee )
Yada yada yada.
Oh and he wrote a book.
Its all about the money.
So will we get the same blog for free ? Sounds doubtful.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

bye bye…and good luck! 😉

Brick
Guest
Brick

What will you do???

Joe
Guest
Joe

Great analysis Alice….Richard

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

100% agree Bill!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Agreed. If Gary is going there, I’m gone from here.

Jon Behle
Guest

Question for all.. Do you think too many severe thunderstorm warnings are issued? Do you tune them out because so many are issued? Should they be in tiers? I’ve seen so many this year now where I am in Central and South Central Kansas. I’m thinking the general public tunes these things out.

Observer
Guest
Observer

Only pay attention to tornado warnings.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

.77 at airport? Bahahahahaha!!! Really representative of the region……NOT.

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

It’s 2.33 from the storm though. It was over two calendar days.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Yeah I know. Any opportunity to dig the airport I take. It was a half hearted effort.

Larry
Guest
Larry

NW Lawrence checking in with 3.48″ through 7:00 this morning, MTD is 22.49″, YTD is 56.31″, average MTD is 4.37″ and average annual precipitation is 37.54″. The heaviest precipitation corridor last night set up in a familiar pattern-Jefferson, Douglas & Franklin counties. If you were predicting 150-200% of normal for the rainfall contest and NW Lawrence is more than 500% above normal for August, I hate to see what September brings. Several of my neighbors have cancelled vacation plans due to the continued heavy rain in Lawrence. What is the predicted rainfall forecast for today, tonight and Saturday?

J-ox
Guest
J-ox

3.55″ at my NW Lawrence location.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

This concept seems disgustingly immoral. One contract may not be that expensive or different from others, but the idea of upcharging people for weather forecasts as a situation becomes more dangerous, when people’s lives are at stake, is horrible precedent to set. I really hope it doesn’t catch on.

I’ve been following this blog for 11 years and did get a subscription when it was first charged for, but this is over the line.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I tend to agree with that.

Jon Behle
Guest

This happens all the time in futures trading if you want to be blunt about it..

Observer
Guest
Observer

Maybe I misunderstood, but I think you pay more to trade, not to get weather forecasts. As storms get closer to land, their likely location of landfall becomes more certain. So it costs more then to trade (that is it costs more to “bet” on where it’s going to hit). Think of it like sports gambling. You can bet today on who will win the Super Bowl. It’s far away. If you wait until the day of the game, you will get much worse odds. A distant bet has the potential to pay more than a near term bet. But… Read more »

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

No, I think you might be right. A hurricane is very different from sports though. There could be loss of life, millions to billions of dollars in damages. I’d feel very insulted if people were betting on my misfortune like that.

Jon Behle
Guest

Betting on it isn’t going to change anything from what will happen on it. We are not controlling what the hurricane will do. If you disagree with this you should be against weather enthusiasm in general because I have seen many wishcasting posts on social media and before that weather enthusiasm message boards by people wanting things that are major disasters which would cause epic issues. Do you consider the stock market immoral? Are the finance money cable sites and channels like CNBC and Fox Business immoral? They will report on trends, and if companies go bankrupt and lay off… Read more »

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

What’s considered moral is debatable and influenced by your life experiences. Personally, I think profiting off the suffering of others is immoral no matter what the context. When done deliberately, it’s just legalized violence that we’ve been conditioned to accept.

Dobber
Guest
Dobber

I agree, I’ve followed this blog a longtime too, paid to join when we were asked. Imagine going to bed at night gambling on others misfortune or hardships. Seems extremely predatory. If weather men want to gamble let’s do it. Put the forecast out and get some bets placed, I bet the house would go broke in short order. Gary do you want to place a $1,000 on tonight’s rain? Nice morning outside , have a good Labor Day weekend

Jon Behle
Guest

Sports already does this.. They have prop bets and one of the prop bets that can be done is risk of a player getting hurt

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

100% agree Skylar!