Hurricane Dorian, KC Thunderstorms, & Football Season

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Good morning bloggers,

Let’s begin with five different computer models, narrowing in on a potential landfall location:

Hurricane Dorian is moving northwest this morning, and it will turn west tonight or Friday.  The timing on when it turns west is of extreme importance as to where the landfall target will become.  The steering currents will be changing in the next three to four days, and as we get to Labor Day, Hurricane Dorian may have become a major hurricane. The steering currents become so weak, that the hurricane will likely slow down as it approaches Florida. So, this is one we will be tracking for a while.

This map above was the early morning updated track prediction from the National Hurricane Center. They had expanded the cone to include the Keys and all the way up to southern Georgia.

The Kansas City Chiefs open their NFL season at Jacksonville, FL which is up near the northeastern tip of Florida.  We will monitor the track closely as some of the models take this system up through the heart of Florida. While that is a fascinating track, similar to Irma from a few years ago, the final track and solution is far from being decided.

Kansas City Weather:

Here is our latest Powercast showing one possible solution for tonight.  A Flash Flood Watch has been issued.

Have a great day!

Gary

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Bill in LawrenceHockeynut69Melanie2doghouseBig j Recent comment authors
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Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary:

Happy Friday to you sir!!!

4 inches here last night in Washington creek Valley; our county road is flooded so we are flooded in for the second time this summer!! Close to 20 inches here for the month of August. I will never in my life time see a month of rain like this. What an LRC!!!

Off to begin clean up and grade the road before it drains enough to get to work

Have a great day everyone

Bill in Washington Creek Valley

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Around 2.1″ in the rain gauge this morning just north of Liberty. That seems consistent with the nearest gauge to me on stormwatch. I feel for those that have been impacted with far more rain and more issues than I can’t mow my lawn. I know I will eventually get to mow it and all will be good. It is much worse for those when it affects their homes and or livelihood. For those that criticize farmers and say that they chose that profession, I will argue yes they did and be glad they did. It is not easy work… Read more »

Melanie
Guest
Melanie

3.34″ so far in eastern Shawnee. Seems to be tapering off now.

2doghouse
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2doghouse

We have 4” in our gauge at cedar creek and k 10.

Farmgirl
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Farmgirl

Local news outlets should send media down to La Cygne and Linn Valley. Significant Flooding is occurring. We have NEVER had our home become an island. This is the worst I have ever seen it North of Linn Valley Lakes. Hen house I am sure is flooded as well as several our implement sheds and older barn. Waiting for it to let up so I can go check on our sheep and pig. This is just awful. 🙁

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

Ugh, the storm is just spinning ever so slowing over south eastern Miami county and pouring buckets of rain. So weary of all the heavy rain every few days. 🙁 We are getting a lot more than the 3/4 inch NWS predicted. They should have stayed with the 1-2 inches that was forecasted for tonight. I bet we end up with a lot more than 2 inches.

There is no where for all this rain to go and ponding and flooding of water is occurring.

Yossarian
Guest
Yossarian

You and me both. Same story in Lawrence. Another all-nighter trying to read and stay awake while manning shop vacs.

Big J
Guest
Big J

It does get to be sickening.

Big J
Guest
Big J

Could have been worse I suppose. 1.2 inches west of the Ville as of now, will end up with 1.35. Needed 0, but oh well. No damage and no hurricane.

Big j
Guest
Big j

Looking more like 1.6 if this ridiculous blob of rain ever moves on.

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

2.5 inches since 11.30pm and counting.
K7 and K10 in Olathe.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The line of the storm was thin as it passed through here (25 miles north of Manhattan), but it dropped 1.2” of rain during the 15 minutes that it lasted (from 11:45 to midnight). This was our 4th gully-washer so far this year.
Getting only sprinkles now.

Shoedog
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Shoedog

Not so lucky on my flight diverted landing in Omaha to refuel after holding. Hoping to find sn opening up lamd

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

The storms are moving in from all directions. Wow!

Farmgirl
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Farmgirl

Models are so inaccurate with this disturbance. This storm definitely fits the “tricky” label. So many boundaries being laid down, this is going to be interesting to watch unfold. No sleep tonight!

Big J
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Big J

You’re welcome Kurt.

Kurt
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Kurt

We could use the rain up here, my pots needed another drink and so did the yard. Didn’t need the wind, but cooled off nicely.

Big J
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Big J

Glad you could use it. Just more excess down here.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

My flight got in just after 7pm tonight. Saw the towering cumulus clouds as we approached from the SE and was watching the radar closely. I am so glad once again to get home before the storms. I am also glad I got out of South Carolina and Georgia before the hurricane. The Atlanta airport is cool in some ways yet chaotic as well. Still appreciate the ease of the KC airport. Happy Friday Eve!!!

Kole Christian
Guest
Kole Christian

Hurricanes are interesting to discuss. The length of time allows for much deeper analysis which helps me learn more.

Dave in Independence
Guest
Dave in Independence

so we have rain moving in from the northeast with a front moving in from the north, and a system moving in from the west. so many boundaries, and i have no idea where the heavy rain zone will set up. craziness

Big J
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Big J

King City is getting pounded , so says my buddy. Continues to pour. First drops here west of Smithville. The neighbor is still combining wheat.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Rain moving in from the east. How bizarre.

Dave in Independence
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Dave in Independence

my temp got knocked down all the way down to 68 degrees. not sure how that will effect things later tonight?

Skylar
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Skylar

Watch likely about to be issued

Matt
Guest
Matt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1891.html Most of KS but looks like counties at Stateline like Miami,Johnson not going to be in it. Also S. Weather Advisory in it.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

they just issued one for much of eastern ks

Matt
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Matt

No counties on 69 highway are under a Watch same with I-35,435 KS side of KC area,k-7 yet. If you have a Map with one post it.

MattinLv
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MattinLv

Blue Horseshoe likes the LRC

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Ahh…interesting video Gary! How much rain are you predicting we get over the next two days?

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Lol !
After the video being out for over 3 hrs and after I said you never comment on Gary’s writeups you decide to comment on the video ! 😂
There’s a first time for everything.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Yawn…shhh troll…nobody is buying your act.

Brick
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Brick

I feel sorry for you….you are on this blog all day!!

KirksvilleDave
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KirksvilleDave

Rain this morning went just NE of Kirksville. The rain this afternoon are just going SW of us. Lots of misses. Last year’s LRC we were just missed. This year it goes all around us… getting closer…

thetophat
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thetophat

This is not a knock against Gary but rather the week long models………………..where oh where is that big fall cold front we were forecast to get today?????

Matt
Guest
Matt

Weather changes.

Michael
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Michael

Yea weather changes but man even the 1 weather app for 66048 shows next week (9/1) with an average high of 75 and low of 53. Looks like as of right now that has a potential to be way off. Ugh, never should get my hope up for early fall temps early in September, no matter what the pattern may say.

John
Guest
John

i’m supposed to have carpet installed Saturday. What are the chances that still happens. Easier if the use the concrete pad outside the basement door.

Michael
Guest
Michael

Well good news is with all the rains Leavenworth received earlier this week, we should get not even a drop. Why? NWS flash flood watch, I think the last 4 times they issued this before the rains came we got maybe 4 drops. No watch issued, we get dumped. Glad my job isn’t about predicting the future, especially predicting what my mother-in-law, I mean Mother Nature will do!

Spooky
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Spooky

Why does it matter who gets rain tonight? You farmers will bitch whether it rains or not? All the while collecting taxpayer paid bailout monies. Amazing.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol…Spooky, is on an endless tirade against the farmers.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Buckup spooky. You know you love paying farmers to keep them onboard during your trade war. Incidentally, your payments to farmers is currently greater than the US treasury has received from your tariffs.

Big J
Guest
Big J

Oh no you di unt!!!!!!

Dustin TheWind
Guest
Dustin TheWind

They just put us in a Flash Flood Watch through tomorrow, so it’s now pretty likely that it won’t rain.

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Plus I’m heading home to mow the yard due to forecast. So that pretty much guarantees no rain.

Big J
Guest
Big J

Mowed my 7 acres today, hope you are right Fred!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Appears to be destabilizing out there…… storms popping early?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Who’s getting the 6″ rain tonight? This LRC has been full of huge rainfalls, I expect nothing different tonight. I’ve had the creek up at least 15 times this year, 15 times I’ve had to check 6 different watergaps! I’ve done nothing but fix watergap fences taken out by floods this spring and summer, got a break in July For a few weeks now back to fixing them every week. I am zeroing in on a small region I suspect may get the worst of the flooding rains tonight. Like the zone that affected Lawrence few weeks back, there looks… Read more »

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

comment image?e66d6731af791a196a438ef4ea749971
NWS Topeka, issued at 12:13 PM

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Ahem…. Up next for the coasts, more wind farms: Popular Science: -In earlier research, Archer demonstrated that offshore wind farms absorb kinetic energy from hurricanes, reducing the effects of wind and storm surge. Her latest study suggests that turbines might also decrease rainfall for onshore locations downstream from a wind farm. Over a wind farm, the wind speed slows “because that’s what turbines do,” she says. “They extract kinetic energy from the wind, therefore the wind behind them, downstream of each turbine, is weaker than it was upstream. Put more and more turbines together in a large farm and you… Read more »

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Gary, you missed your morning window. LoL…still writing?

Brick
Guest
Brick

Do you work?!?!?

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

yep at KU as an accountant. I think his name is Robert Racy.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

nope and nope…but even though you are really, really bad at it, you shouldn’t try to dox people…that can get you booted from blogs….and I’m guessing it wouldn’t be your first time. lol

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Good grief. Let it go man.
You never comment on the blog writeups.
Never. You never thank him for the blog.
Gary owes you nothing. He owes nothing to any of us. But he puts out a daily blog.

Gary thanks for the video ! Have a great holiday weekend.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Shhh troll, I was praising Gary on this blog while you were still in your troll diapers. lol And you are one of the most annoying trolls on this blog, but nice try. 😉

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Praising Gary ?
All I ever see is you complaining about him being late, or making smart one-liner remarks to other bloggers.
I was blogging long before I found this site.
Trolling is your schtick. Not mine.
I would love nothing better than to come here and not see your smart remarks.
Be good Miser.

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

amen

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

And btw, you do work at KU and your name is Robert Racy

.myKUEmailBlackboardEnroll & PayKU Directory

Professional & Continuing Education

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RACY, ROBERT

Accountant, Business Office

rracy@ku.edu

785-864-9143

Contact Professional & Continuing Education

kupce@ku.edu

913-897-8530

The University of Kansas 
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Regents Center 125 
12600 Quivira Rd. 
Overland Park, KS 66213

Policies

Academics Accessible K

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Inspector

Heat might be annoying to me at times. But this one goes over the line. How the hell can you justify posting that ? You can’t justify it and I’m pretty sure it is not allowed. What did he ever do to you. And it does nothing to prove he is Robert Racy.
I’m on team Heat Miser on this one !

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Hi Jeff, could you update the blog? maybe similar style to yesterday’s?

Jim
Guest
Jim

Wasn’t this forecast made like 6 months ago using the LRC? Shouldn’t it be a copy and paste job?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

lol

J. R.
Guest
J. R.

Gary….hello? Nice writeup about Dorian, but how about here?

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Give the man time. He’s still writing.

But here, I’ll help you out…
It’s going to be hot today.
It’s going to rain tonight
It’s going to rain tomorrow
It’s going to be awesome on Labor Day !

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Complaining that free service isn’t always provided on time is really brave

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Spending 6 hours writing must be good 😛

Anyway —

So does the LRC still say we will get rain all day tomorrow with flooding likely?

John
Guest
John

He is just getting it right.

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Nowcasting

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Still writing…

Craig
Guest
Craig

New SPC update widens the slight risk to include the metro.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

They are predicting this to hit FL as a CAT 4 now

Matt
Guest
Matt

150 miles winds

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Actually the current forecast is 130 mph at landfall, although that could change.

Dustin TheWind
Guest
Dustin TheWind

ICON has it just sitting on top of Miami for several days. That would be a bad scenario.

John
Guest
John

Chiefs game in Jacksonville isn’t until the 8th.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Storm on shore Labor Day at moment. Also good Sporting KC isn’t playing Orlando KC or Royals Braves or Marlins but if Ray’s in a Dome.

John
Guest
John

I also didn’t think of the flooding issues it would cause if the storm did hit closer to Jacksonville.

Dustin TheWind
Guest
Dustin TheWind

I lived in Jax for a short time, and they hadn’t had a direct hit from a hurricane since the 50’s. So they’re very rare there, BUT one finally hit a couple years ago and the flooding was catastrophic.

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

Chiefs wouldn’t travel to Jacksonville until at least Friday morning for a normal Sunday game. Only way that travel and/or game would be affected is if Jacksonville takes a direct hit.

Too early to tell. Wait until Sunday.

Dan
Guest
Dan

Hey everyone, big dilemma. We have a big outdoor event in Lawrence, Kansas from 9:00pm-Midnight tonight. It has been planned for a while and I am wondering if the rain will hold off until after that time frame. Fingers-crossed as we likely wont be able to reschedule if we have to cancel. Plan on making the final call by 5:00pm. Would love to hear everyones thoughts, thanks!

Ryan Johnson
Guest
Ryan Johnson

How much rain for tonight and friday night?

Steve P
Guest
Steve P

Interesting weather in KC and Fla Atlantic side. It’s cool, windy and dry in Bryce and Zion areas today but yesterday saw light rain that evaporated before it hit ground and Tues in Zion at surface was 105. Still there was an interesting outflow boundary associated with precipitation yesterday. I’d put pic of weather and clouds associated with it on here but working off phone and service here is not so great.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

There’s only 117 days until Christmas.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

BTW if the latest HRRR is right we’ll get a deluge tonight.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

This is worse than the “first” posts

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Time to start thinking about your Christmas decorations!

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

omg…I’ve gotta break out my Xmas decor immediately and prepare.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Bravo Johnny …..^ this 100%

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

And three until Labor Day