Increasing Chance of Thunderstorms and Dorian

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Good Wednesday bloggers,

The weather pattern is about to become rather active as we track thunderstorm chances around here and what could be a major hurricane affecting Florida.

The weather has been incredibly nice the last two days with dew point values dropping from the low 60s to low 50s. It is now around 60°. The beginning of changes will occur on Thursday as as you will notice a major increase in the humidity, dew points will rise to the mid and upper 70s. This will setup the chances of thunderstorms as we track a front and new series of disturbances. Let’s go day by day through Labor Day.

THURSDAY: There may be a few showers and thunderstorms during the morning along the leading edge of the high dew points. Tomorrow will be mostly dry, very warm and becoming extremely humid. A cold front will be drifting south near I-80.

FRIDAY: Thunderstorms will explode along the front Thursday night across southern sections of Nebraska and Iowa as a disturbance tracks out of the Rockies. The thunderstorms will then track south and southeast into eastern Kansas and western Missouri by Friday morning. Some locations will see very heavy rain and strong winds. Friday afternoon will see lots of clouds along with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. The front will be stalling around I-70. Highs Friday will drop to the 70s and low 80s.

SATURDAY: The next disturbance will ride in from the Rockies Friday night, interacting with the stalled front and all of the moisture. This will trigger new areas of rain and thunderstorms that will continue into Saturday morning. The rain and thunderstorms may be much larger in geographical coverage than the event Thursday night into Friday. Some locations may experience flash flooding. Saturday afternoon will likely see the rain decrease as clouds remain. Highs Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s. What a way to end August.

SUNDAY: The rain chances around here will be near zero, but lots of clouds may linger with highs in the 70s. Sunday will not be that bad of a day for our area. But, this is when we need to start watching Dorian very closely for it’s impacts on the mainland USA. Dorian may be a category 3 at this point as it churns through or near the Bahamas.

LABOR DAY: We will be having a nice Labor Day with highs in the 70s and 80s, which is quite a contrast from Florida. This is the European model solution. It takes Dorian across south Florida before turning north towards Louisiana or the Florida panhandle. There is much uncertainty on how Dorian will track after Saturday. We will have to keep watching this closely.

So, it looks like two of the three main holiday weekend days will be decent around here. The forecast above is valid for the area lakes and Lake of the Ozarks. If you have weekend plans in the southeast USA, pay attention to the forecasts and our updates closely.

Have a great rest of your week and holiday weekend.

Jeff Penner

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F00dl3Mr. PeteJobuRich (east of Topeka)Nimbus Recent comment authors
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F00dl3
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F00dl3

Not to say the 3km NAM is right but 3km NAM looks like the 7/20-7/21 squall line but with a twist where 3km shows it making it all the way to Wichita then turning south to OKC/Tulsa, instead of barely sagging through KC. Just saying it looks familiar but doesn’t quite match the timing cycle length.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Labor Day is looking spectacular for the outdoors!

Jobu
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Jobu

How does this tie with the LRC? Based on history it should either spin South and hang in the gulf for 10 days or miss the US all together. Since the LRC forecast was for mid Sept hurricane in the Gulf

Rich (east of Topeka)
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Rich (east of Topeka)

Fantastic write up Jeff! I love the day by day breakdown paired with the POWERCAST graphics! Thanks!

Nimbus
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Nimbus

Any chance Dorian moisture will make it up to KC and influence our weather?

Brandon Strecker
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Brandon Strecker

Gary – I have outdoor plans starting Saturday around 9am. Will the rain be gone shortly after 7am? Or should I have a Plan B throughout the day? Thank you!

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

Reading what he says above, rain might not let up until Saturday afternoon.

Brandon Strecker
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Brandon Strecker

I should clarify. I live up north. Based on the graphic, it appears it will let up north to south. When should the rain subside in the northland?

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Glad I will be getting out of the SE and headed home before it hits here. Ready to head back and maybe be able to mow my lawn.