The Next Chance Of Rain & Update On Contest

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Good morning bloggers,

What a couple of days we just experienced.  I know it is leaving those of you flabbergasted; some of the bloggers who have thought we were in a developing drought in one of the wettest first 8 months of the year.  I am not sure I have ever used that word in one of my blogs, and that is a lot of blogging.  Kansas City finally got hit, after missing so many of the direct hits from these complexes of thunderstorms this summer.  It was about time, as this year’s LRC has not left us frustrated for too long.  It just came through again, and look at the numbers:

We aren’t done with August yet.  There is another storm system showing up for the end of the week, end of the month.

By Friday, this surface set up will likely produce more thunderstorm complexes.  So, we will be adding a bit to our total for this month. We are just 0.65″ from a 6″ month of August.

Rainfall since August 14th:

Our blog rainfall prediction contest began on August 14th, and it will continue until September 23.  1.40″ fell Monday from thunderstorms that tracked in from Nebraska and targeted the KC metro area for the second day in a row, after 0.97″ fell at KCI Airport from Sunday’s storm.  This puts us up to 4.71″ for the contest and 5.35″ for the month.  Five entries are already lower than the total in the first two weeks of this contest as you can see below:

Our total of 4.71″ has already eliminated the lowest five totals in the contest.  Good luck, as we have another four weeks to go before the new LRC begins evolving.

Some winter forecasts have already come out from various sources.  Any forecast that comes out before the end of October is based on nothing, just a feeling, the acorns, squirrels, or a flawed weather philosophy.  The weather pattern for next winter begins setting up in around four weeks, so there is literally no way to know at this point.  Of course this is based on my hypothesis, the LRC.

Speaking of the LRC-The NWS tweeted this out: “Fun Stat: Today’s 1.40″ of rain at Kansas City brings the yearly (calendar) total to 39.74″. Normal for an entire year at Kansas City is 38.86″. So every drop of water we get for the rest of the year (128 days!!!) will add to the above normal total!!”.

They are basically saying that the water year is the LRC year.  This year’s LRC began right around October 5th, and suddenly it got wet!

Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog featuring the LRC!

Gary

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SnowGoPewPew
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SnowGoPewPew

The BOI (Blog Outside Index) is a 12 today.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Took advantage of this nice weather – shut the AC off and replaced the AC condensation drain pipe. Easiest thing ever, and cheap. Use a hacksaw, 2x 10′ 1/2 in PVC pipes, 2x 1/2 in PVC elbows, PVC primer, and PVC cement. $15. Can’t believe people pay service call fees for that.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Hmmmm..still no blog eh?

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Lol
Why are you always the one to ask ?

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Why are you always the one to respond to my asking? lol It’s because I love Garys blogs so much I can hardly wait until the next one! 😉

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

He’s out playing with the dog

Brick
Guest
Brick

T

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

EOI was a 10 tonight and we took advantage of it. It was awesome.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Off the topic of weather, except for the fact that the weather was great tonight in Nashville. Broadway street was great once again, so much wonderful music to listen to and one heck of an environment to enjoy it. Always a great time. Heading to South Carolina tomorrow and the back to KC Thursday evening. Always love coming home. Hoping the rain holds off a bit Friday but will try to get stuff done when I can.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Gary, would you be able to post YTD precipitation (or estimated) amounts for around the area? Much like the snowy winter, the south side of metro has, I think, been targeted a bit more with the heavier rainfall in the spring and summer. Certainly not the entire time, but I think MCI is likely one of the lower totals in the area. We know parts of Lawrence are over 54 inches with 4 months remaining. I’m in south OP between Switzer/Quivira off of 143rd street. I am pretty sure my rain gauge is way ahead of the airport if I… Read more »

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

I don’t have a YTD total, but since April 1st we’ve had right at 34” in North Topeka. And with that, I have successfully given you a response that answered none of your requests as we are probably about 50-60 miles from the metro.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I’m at 52.4″ for the year. I only know that precise amount becuase I have a free Ag weather app that has my longitude and latitude and gives me a detailed rainfall estimate daily. It’s Very accurate actually, its nearly always within 1 or 2 tenths of an inch from dead on. I almost don’t even look at rain gauge anymore it’s that good!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

St Joseph is at 28.20, I’m probably somewhere around 31 or 32 for the year. Much better than last 2 years but still a large discrepancy over 50-75 miles.

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

What is the App?

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

It may not be the greatest resource but you can go to http://www.stormwatch.com and select the rainfall totals since Jan 1. This should give you some of the information you seek.

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

What a nice day it’s been today after that mess yesterday. Warm and sunny.

Stl78(winona, mn)
Guest
Stl78(winona, mn)

I think back to back snowy yrs are in your future kc.😉

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

But.. but…. the LRC….how can you say such a thing? The LRC has not revealed the secret, shaaaaame on you.Oh wait a sec, you’re just going on a hunch, ahhh I get it.

Hope you’re right!

Stl78(winona, mn)
Guest
Stl78(winona, mn)

Mark it down

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser
Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

I’ve always thought the regional forecast by the Farmers Almanac was a joke, there can be so much variance in a region that if you want to know the only area you care about, yours, it’s not that specific! They’re fun, like fireworks, look good on paper but usually fail to impress. My rainfall guess was for around 8″, I figured I would be high but it looks like now i’ll be well low when it’s all done. At one point Gary you felt that September would be cool and wet, the long rangers are not showing this, do you… Read more »

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

We cant trust the short term models, let alone the long term. Who knows

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Johnny,

Exactly! Couldn’t have said better myself . Model performance has been inconsistent and horrible

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Urbanity,

While I won’t answer for Gary, based on my understanding of the LRC, I anticipate much wetter conditions and cooler than average temperatures. Back in June, I posted that I felt we would return to a more wet pattern the last half of August into September and so far, that is what is happening. With that said, I would be shocked if we don’t come in above average moisture in September

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

I had 4.78” for the 2 day storm totals at 68 th Leavenworth rd in Kck Rodney

Josh
Guest
Josh

Can you recap the LRC Hurricane Prediction in the coming weeks?

John
Guest
John

The forecast for hurricane season is the blog write up on May 31st. I would say it is a very good forecast up to this point.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Gary
Acorns ? 😂 lol
Brett Anthony’s theory.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Hey Gary that graphic is hilarious. Best one I’ve seen for laughs ! I saw it on Nick Benders Facebook ( kmbc channel 9 met)
It was put out by a Charlotte NC met.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

LoL…Farmers Almanac said Frigid and snowy for our part of the country this winter…a “polar coaster”. ROFL

Allison
Guest
Allison

Looking at the LRC, can it show how prevalent Hurricanes will be this year? Or is the LRC mainly focused on the KC area? I have noticed the weather web sites are hyper on Hurricanes right now. Thank you.

Rodney’s Clockwork Angels
Guest
Rodney’s Clockwork Angels

20 inches of rain for August in Southwest parts of Lawrence so far. It can stop now.

Dobber
Guest
Dobber

Gary , the walnuts and apples are falling . A few trees around are starting to turn colors I’ve noticed, these are just observations at this point but it sure seems like an early start to fall what do you think?

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Leaves changing has more to do with the amount of sunlight (length of daylight hours) than with temperatures.

Numb3rsGuy
Guest
Numb3rsGuy

I agree, but the length of day on August 27th, 2019 should be the same as on August 27th, 2018 (within about a minute), so that is a constant variable. I know it’s not scientific, but I saw a monarch butterfly on its migration south earlier this year than I have any other year past. I saw one on the last day in July, when it’s usually mid-late august when they fly through my area. The LRC will tell us specifics after we observe the first cycle, but I think that a combination of the solar minimum and the volcanic… Read more »

Gabe
Guest
Gabe

Knock them all you want, but wildlife, plants, etc don’t have to wait until the 1st cycle is done to figure out what the upcoming season will be like. Humans can’t interpret models any better than they can nature and wildlife.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

I actually do wonder whether this is really true. It’s hard for me to figure out how wildlife could predict the nature of weather months in advance. I’m not saying it’s impossible. Mother nature is a mad scientist. But it seems really unlikely.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

comment image
I’ve kept records of when migrating birds arrive here for the past five years, and each kind of bird has appeared within two days of its average arrival time. Weather conditions haven’t had any impact. The first to arrive each season are phoebes and the last are “rain crows” (yellow-billed cuckoos). I’m always amazed that they can make that trip from Paraguay with such precision.
Hundreds of Monarch butterflies migrated through here on September 20th.

Jack Morrisey
Guest
Jack Morrisey

Please… PLEASE… For once can the comments be constructive? Question Gary’s science. Offer statistics. Give thoughtful input. But don’t dig on each other. Adult up and make your posts about the weather; it’s the Midwest, it’s always an interesting topic!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

There’s only 119 days until Christmas.

Bob
Guest
Bob

This is the best news!

Adam
Guest
Adam

That’s valid

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

omg….I better start shopping

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

And five more to Labor Day.