Good morning bloggers,
As I shared with you a couple of days ago in the video blog, we are still 100% in the same pattern that began last fall, and we are now just four weeks away from finally beginning that major transition. If you see my map comparison in that video, there is no doubt at all that the pattern from Sunday and the pattern from November 4th are like a nearly perfect match. The storm that produced the 0.97″ at KCI Airport and 1 to 3 inch amounts around Kansas City, was one of the best rainfall producers of the entire summer within the KC metro area. It has been a struggle since the end of June. We will look at where we are in the contest later in this blog. Let’s begin with today’s severe weather risk.
Severe Weather Risk Today:
This organized Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) was heading right towards KC this morning, as of 7:30 AM. This system may significantly impact how everything sets up this afternoon and evening, so we must pay close attention to how this system tracks, and where any outflow boundaries set up. There is an enhanced slight risk of severe weather today as shown below from the Storm Prediction Center:
The thunderstorm complex, shown above, is heading right into KC. This will highly likely affect the rest of the day, and will most likely reduce the risk from the SPC for later in the day in our area. I am still monitoring, and these thunderstorms are already on our doorstep. The new NAM model has NO rain this morning, amazingly horrible models.
It appears that this system will be strong enough to end the risk in KC later today. I am not 100% convinced of this, however, so let’s keep monitoring.
Rainfall Forecast Contest: Amount of rain between August 15 and September 23
0.97″ fell at KCI Airport from yesterday’s storm system, so 3.31″ has fallen at KCI Airport since our contest began on August 14th. Here are the contest predictions for the total amount ending September 23:
Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Let us know if you have any questions or comments, and please no personal attacks, as these are not allowed in the blog. Have a great day.