A Severe Weather Risk & A Look At Our Contest Numbers

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Good morning bloggers,

As I shared with you a couple of days ago in the video blog, we are still 100% in the same pattern that began last fall, and we are now just four weeks away from finally beginning that major transition.  If you see my map comparison in that video, there is no doubt at all that the pattern from Sunday and the pattern from November 4th are like a nearly perfect match.  The storm that produced the 0.97″ at KCI Airport and 1 to 3 inch amounts around Kansas City, was one of the best rainfall producers of the entire summer within the KC metro area.  It has been a struggle since the end of June.  We will look at where we are in the contest later in this blog.  Let’s begin with today’s severe weather risk.

Severe Weather Risk Today:

This organized Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) was heading right towards KC this morning, as of 7:30 AM.  This system may significantly impact how everything sets up this afternoon and evening, so we must pay close attention to how this system tracks, and where any outflow boundaries set up. There is an enhanced slight risk of severe weather today as shown below from the Storm Prediction Center:

The thunderstorm complex, shown above, is heading right into KC. This will highly likely affect the rest of the day, and will most likely reduce the risk from the SPC for later in the day in our area. I am still monitoring, and these thunderstorms are already on our doorstep. The new NAM model has NO rain this morning, amazingly horrible models.

It appears that this system will be strong enough to end the risk in KC later today.  I am not 100% convinced of this, however, so let’s keep monitoring.

Rainfall Forecast Contest:  Amount of rain between August 15 and September 23

0.97″ fell at KCI Airport from yesterday’s storm system, so 3.31″ has fallen at KCI Airport since our contest began on August 14th.  Here are the contest predictions for the total amount ending September 23:

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments, and please no personal attacks, as these are not allowed in the blog.  Have a great day.

Gary

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Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Another 1.0″ in Linn Valley today and never hit 80, hottest year ever!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

The irony is the German Icon model has been batting 1000 for the past 2 storms. :O

1.78″ of rain here near Old Town Lenexa is the actual measurement. Most of it in 30 minutes. 2 day total 4.53″.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Das Deutch ist gut.

Big J
Guest
Big J

Never been happier with a totally blown forecast.
They keep trying to predict the Lord’s moves, and He keeps chuckling 😂.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

SPC should be clowns for Halloween, since they are clowns half the time anyway. Pathetic forecast today from them, at 830am I knew for 100% fact this was the main event, albeit 8-12 hours earlier than forecasted, and this would destroy afternoon chances. In fact, I would say 90% of the bloggers also knew this is how it would unfold, only for the noon update to still have a terrible map illustrating yet a stout chance for severe storms even here in metro and points south. Wrong, all wrong, and even yet junior forecasters here knew what was up? Models… Read more »

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Have a cigarette

Jaxon
Guest
Jaxon

What does the LRC say about the track of hurricane Dorian? Atlantic side, or gulf? Landfall?

This is a chance for the LRC to shine when the models are all over the place.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EC7FrqOXoAIkyvg?format=png

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

We should all take a moment to appreciate just how bad the weather models have been recently. As of 6 AM this morning the forecast (for Topeka) was for a high of 85 and no rain until some possible heavy storms between 4-6 PM. We had a some moderate rainfall off and on between 9-11 AM and I doubt the high gets over 75 this afternoon. We are talking about missing the high temp by TEN(!) degrees less than 12 hours out from the warmest time of day and missing rainfall that was less than 2-3 hours away. On top… Read more »

C.C
Guest
C.C

I’m loving these temperatures for being late August. Nice change of pace especially after last year

John
Guest
John

No longer any risk of severe storms according to SPC. So all models were trash again today? First they had no idea about the storms this morning with everything firing this afternoon. Now there will be no redevelopment this afternoon at all. Closest risk is down around Springfield now.

Bill
Guest
Bill

Well, just looking out my window, I can tell you this event is over. The sky looks completely stable. I will enjoy my evening workout class without interruption. 🙂

Nate
Guest
Nate

What is Matt saying about tonight?

Jobu
Guest
Jobu

Gary –

I am sure you’re super busy…but could you provide any updates on the forecast? With the MCS that came through, traditionally it calms down the risk of severe weather.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Current forecast on KSHB website: Severe line of thunderstorms pushes south to I-44 this afternoon. There is a chance for new scattered showers and thunderstorms along a cold front 5-9 PM. The severe threat is little to non. Wind: Variable 5-15 mph. High: 77°

Larry
Guest
Larry

We have severe flooding concerns in NW Lawrence. After this morning’s monsoon, I am approaching 20 inches for the month (0.98 inches to go) and have officially broken the previous annual record of 53.37″. Just over 54 inches for the year. The models for this weekend are showing widespread 2-5 inches early Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

If you look at visible satellite right now, it shows how incredibly complex this setup is for us here. Low clouds and gravity wave clouds are locked in just a bit to the west and it’s moving our way. The clearing is only likely because of stabilizing effects of the MCS as it passed. The question is if rapid heating can occur in this small clear zone before the clouds overtake it.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Kansas-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

What do the gravity wave clouds indicate? Thanks.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Sign of instability

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Weren’t we only in the 60’s when the storm barreled through at 11 a.m. ? ( JoCo KS )
On Facebook Jeff says severe threat will be south and east for later because we will only be in the 70’s. So my question is why the heck strong storms can come through with 60’s.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

For storm maintenance, humidity is the main factor that matters. In some ways cooler air can actually help drive storm forward momentum as it enhances cold pooling. For storm development, warmer air is better than cold air because it allows the air to bubble up more. In general the best temperatures for severe are 63-87F. Anything below that or above that can limit severe weather potential. I think for some reason 65-78F are the ideal temperatures to sustain thunderstorm complexes longer though because when temperatures are higher it leads to more cap-related convection as humidity is relative and a 72… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

lol Emporia just dropped from 80 to 72 in the past hour. Guess the cold air is now winning out.

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

Sun and blue skies are starting to filter through in leavenworth. Still this very low layer of gray/brown clouds that are breaking up.

So are we expecting storms then later if the sun comes out and starts cookin?

Lisa Lu
Guest
Lisa Lu

Wow! Had a busy morning and yet did we ever get hammered with rain in S. OP (119th/Antioch) this late morning/noonish. Crazy amounts of rain or at least it felt like it. Hoping to see someone who lives near me with a rain gauge post local amounts. That last storm that came through was also a doozy – lightning and thunder was fast and furious. I was talking with my sister in Liberty and they too were getting hammered….that pretty much covers most of the metro area!

ICT->MHK
Guest
ICT->MHK

Accurate rain gauge information near you, and across all of Johnson County, can be found here:

https://www.stormwatch.com/home.php

Lisa Lu
Guest
Lisa Lu

Thank you for the link! It says 1.26 inches in last 24 hours. I would have thought was double that!

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

There is NO WAY in hell that 1.26 is accurate for 24 hours. I live about 3 mile SW of you around 143/Nieman (halfway between Quivira and Switzer). While only a few miles can mean big variances I know Sunday and today’s rain was over 5 inches in my gauge and I was driving close to your area both days when storms hit. My back yard and side yard were a lake and river. I did not check a gauge from JOCO closet to me.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Inspector
Guest
Inspector

The storms rolled through and I still have a south breeze. Maybe the warm front will pass us after all. We have plenty of time to destabilize now.

Bill
Guest
Bill

The warm front is currently nudging its way through Emporia where the temps have popped into the 80s.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

not according to the SPC

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

That’s what the NWS Topeka is saying, but this area out west isn’t highlighted on their map.
comment image?aa1e6c2f130d9be9fefb9cdc4ab6b9e7

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Received 3 inches from yesterday and so far today in NW Olathe.

Bill
Guest
Bill

My gut is telling me that storms will fire this way again. Three observations: first, I can see the sun outside my window to the west leading me to believe it is going to clear up; second the warm front is nudging through south central Kansas, how summer version deals with this, I do not know; and finally, I do not remember clouds moving this fast during the summer. We will see in about 2-4 hours whether we destabilize again.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Will the warm front get pasted OP?

Observer
Guest
Observer

Nearly 2 inches in about 45 min in Western Shawnee. And the 12z NAM had none of this.

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

Do you remember how the NAM worked out for last winter? Can’t remember how accurate it was.

Observer
Guest
Observer

Normally a model can catch on when it’s only 2-3 hrs before the weather event. Today they were too locked in on late afternoon to notice the MCS bearing down on us. It was also great to have SPC issue severe t storm warning about 10 min after the 70 mph gusts blew through. Is that post-casting?

C.C
Guest
C.C

People sure do go back into hiding once a wet pattern hits. Not going to name names

Bob
Guest
Bob

Kurt.

Jack Morrisey
Guest
Jack Morrisey

What the hell; honor Gary’s request of no personal attacks!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

You didn’t care for my posts when it was drying out, why would you care for my post now? You’re being kind of mean aren’t you? In this society of promoting “kindness” why don’t you learn to behave?

Matt
Guest
Matt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Olathe still in Enhanced Risk in latest update

John
Guest
John

Well there are severe storms moving through now. That is probably why because the northern edge of the severe risk has shrunk and a lot farther south. I feel like this will be it for severe weather in the metro for today. Anything later will fire up to the south.

Craig
Guest
Craig

The salient paragraphs from that new update: In the wake of the ongoing convection, renewed storm development is expected 21-23z near the triple point and along the cold front near the KS/MO border, though the northward extent of the threat is uncertain given the influence of the ongoing storms. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will be maximized near the outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone this afternoon/evening in MO. Cross-frontal shear vectors with storm motions to the east-southeast 25-30 kt should allow semi-discrete storms for a couple of hours late this afternoon/evening, with an attendant threat… Read more »

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

I am sure you are busy Gary, but would love to hear your thoughts about this area of storms and heavy rain that came through. Was quite the rainstorm.

Yogiscout
Guest
Yogiscout

Through yesterday, Kansas City’s official rainfall (KCI) was 38.34 inches; today through 10:53am CDT – KCI reported 1.34 inches of rain just this morning. Average rainfall for an entire CY is 38.86 inches (per Average yearly climatological data. As of 10:53am CDT, KCI has reported more rainfall through this morning than an Average year. We are now at 39.68 inches (and counting since KCI is still reporting a thunderstorm and rain.

EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)
Guest
EastOfEden (in Salt Lake City for now)

Try not to drown guys! lol

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Hmmph well that’s a first. I got a full blown creek going through the center of my back yard. Can’t tell exactly but per cameras looks like the rain gauge has at least 2″ in the last 30 minutes near old town Lenexa.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

same here. I have a partial lake in my back yard and then where the terrain finally drops a bit it turned in to a river. Probably 7 feed wide at it’s widest. A good 100 feet long until it hits the street. Good lord. Once again, it appears for some reason the airport didn’t get it as bad. Not always the case, but this LRC has had most of the heavy snow and heaviest rain in the central and south parts of the metro. It’s strange, or maybe not, that’s it been

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

143rd/Nieman in south O.P. between Switzer/Quivira

CaptainKU
Guest
CaptainKU

Wow that was an intense storm that just came through Lenexa, turned dark as night and had severe gust and torrential rain for almost a half hour.

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Models are terrible on this one. Not one from 00z or 06z predicted this deluge. Even the 12z NAM missed it.

I am up to 1.44 this morning after 1.7 yesterday with more to come.

Greenhead
Guest
Greenhead

Wow this storm is intense. And severe warned

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

it appears that the enhanced risk has pushed a little further north

Matt
Guest
Matt

Where do you see that because no new one out yet?

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

was it just me?

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

We just can’t catch a good rain here in north Topeka. Yesterday was only .20 inches and this morning we had two heavy rain bands jump east right as they approached leaving us with only .23 inches. Not “dry” but sure would be nice to let another inch or two soak in. Kurt- how do I make it stop missing?

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Weather is crazy Willy. I’d say as the crow flies I’m around 10 to 12 miles east of you, and we got 1.1 inches yesterday and around an inch this morning.

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

Rich- Looks like you may be in store for more later this evening too! And naturally, we are just west of where these storms are supposed to form again. Out of curiosity- do you happen to have a rainfall total for your location since April 1?

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Hi Willy, Yes, since April 1st I’ve recorded 37.5 inches at our location.

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

I knew you’d have me beat. We are just a hair under 34” in North Topeka.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Yea, I got you beat, but not by too much. We’ve missed several storms by just a county or less here this summer, they seem to go east and south of us a lot. I’ve a co-worker who lives in NW Lawrence who’s had I think almost 10 inches more than me.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Watch how the leading edge of the storms over the western half of the area right now is bowing out. I’m presuming where this bow echo falls apart or the gust front decouples will be where the outflow boundary will stall out.

Craig
Guest
Craig

Watch closely. The warm front is still pegged to move through before the cold front arrives.
KC should have cirrus-filtered sunshine by early afternoon. From there? We’ll see…
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/satellite/regional-visible/ussln

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

NWS Kansas City :
Flash Flood Warning including Leavenworth KS, Lansing KS, Bonner Springs KS until 1:00 PM CDT

Larry
Guest
Larry

We’re getting pounded again this morning in NW Lawrence. Pop-up thunderstorms are training over my location again this morning. Sump pumps are running continuously throughout the neighborhood today.

Yesterday through 7:00 AM this morning 1.83″; August total through this morning 17.45″; May total 12.37″; June total 10.23″ and YTD total 52.67″. The record annual rainfall is 53.37″; which we may break by the end of the month.

J-ox
Guest
J-ox

1.25″ from this AM’s rains at my NW Lawrence location.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

The lightning is fierce again !! Two huge cracks just now made me jump.
Gary why has lightning been so prevalent with these storms this year ?? And another one !!
Not much wind with these lately but a lot of lightning.

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Agreed. I actually thought my house was hit by lightning.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Could try to formulate a LRC for lighting.
Lighting Reoccurrence Cycle.

Just kidding Gary, just having some fun.
It’s alive for another fading four weeks.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

RickMc
Same ! I thought my house or next door got struck !
And wow what a storm that just rolled through ! Man
This one did have 60-70 mph winds in JoCo. And torrential rain once again.

Michael
Guest
Michael

It has been poring here in Leavenworth for most of the morning, after a somewhat dry spell it has returned wet. Which I don’t mind, gets me closer to fall and a little further away from possible high heat!! Dew points a different story, but still I’ll take it!!

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

We are getting hammered with rain this morning up here in Leavenworth. This is on top of the rain from all weekend too.The cell coming through now is a lot louder than the one an hour or so ago.

Teresa A Schneider
Guest
Teresa A Schneider

Ummm, our severe weather is already here in Blue Springs! It has been storming for almost an hour. Haven’t checked the rain gauge yet but it started pouring about 15 minutes ago.

dustin
Guest
dustin

Add another inch at KCI from this morning!

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

From looking at the latest radar motion it appears as though this MCS complex will track and likely stay north of interstate 70 so areas in Central Missouri that are along & south of I 70 including Columbia Jefferson City & Lake of the Ozarks could still have an enhanced risk this evening, time will tell. Sun is out Jefferson City.

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

HRRR and NAM are failing to handle this MCS at all. It’s still going strong and aiming right for KC. GFS and Icon had the MCS do this and they fire storms up well south of KC later today. I’d lean to KC having no severe weather risk at this point unless the storms all of a sudden fall apart. As long as this MCS keeps tracking through, I would lean in favor of GFS/Icon.

Bill
Guest
Bill

One thing of interest that I read elsewhere is the possibility of the atmosphere recovering quicker due to the fact it is summer instead of spring. It will be an interesting day for sure, but I tend to agree with you that it will hit south. When we had the tornado this spring, the MCS hugged the MO/IA border and didn’t really touch us, but sent an outflow boundary our way.

Unearthed
Guest
Unearthed

You WILL stand corrected 👌🏻

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

This is what happens almost every time there’s a severe weather threat and morning storms hit. The one time that didn’t happen was the EF4 tornado.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Which EF4 tornado? The one 5/4/3 we didn’t actually get rain in the morning from the MCS as it moved out of Nebraska our way. We got cloud cover and light drizzle at times, but no rain. The warm front lifted back north and cleared the sky rapidly and that’s where the supercells formed.

If we’re talking about the one earlier this year I do not remember rain in Lawrence that morning.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I meant that there wasn’t rain with the EF4 this year. Usually, morning rain always hinders severe weather chances later in the day, but the EF4 tornado this year was the one time it didn’t rain.

Gabe
Guest
Gabe

The outflow from that MCS ended up being the trigger later in the day. That won’t be the case today. At least not anywhere that gets a working over this morning.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Actually it may very well be. The outflow from the MCS may lie from a Paola to Clinton to Sedalia line later this afternoon and if you take the Icon/GFS at face value, that’s where it shows new storm development later today. Just because it may clear out here doesn’t me we will have the best forcing and triggering. The best combination of factors will be where the cold front intersects the outflow boundary.

Bill
Guest
Bill

So basically no one has any idea what is going to happen today . . .

From the NWS:

This morning MCS definitely throws a wrinkle into the afternoon
round of storms. CAM models have not resolved this system, even
the 12Z runs, so it adds considerable uncertainty with how the day
will evolve. Models that are performing better show the morning
MCS leaving an outflow boundary across the MO river valley with
strong instability building during the afternoon. With upper level
support, the overall pattern still supports an afternoon round of
severe weather.

Gabe
Guest
Gabe

Yup. With the way it’s coming down in Lawrence now, nothing in this area later.

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

Looking at satellite, the sun will be out by 1pm or so. Should be plenty of time to recover for evening storms…

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

Areas north and west of the MCS will have cooled, sinking air even if the sun comes out. You can see a series of gravity waves extending from Manhattan to just west of Wichita where a few cells are already trying to form. Along and east of this area, south of the MCS, is where the highest chance severe will be.

Big J
Guest
Big J

Mostly north of Hwy 36 this am she said…..
Wait…maybe Independence over to Excesior she said….

Heck let’s just nowcast the whole area from north central Minnesota to Olathe.

Oh well, at least it should knock the power out of the afternoon storms.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

It’s been a little bit foggy with two quick showers that moved through earlier here in Lawrence. We’ve also had thunder off and on l for the last two hours which is giving the whole atmosphere an interesting feel. It actually seems similar to the day the tornado hit Linwood, which was also cloudy with drizzle for most of the day.

There probably won’t be any new development behind this MCS, it’s too organized and it would not fit the behavior of any of the weather we’ve had this summer.

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

Man, so I’m driving around out in the country for work this morning up here in leavenworth county. I wouldn’t call it dark, but very grey. It feels like it should be 4pm in October. Amazing how just last Monday I was sweating under the sun in what felt like a Panamanian jungle.

The clouds are very very low and some are touching the highest hilltops. Interesting weather. It’s telling us the snowflake contest is not too far off!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

NAM 3km Significant Tornado parameter pretty high for the KC metro – something to watch for.
comment image

Matt
Guest
Matt

No good if true.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Joshua
Guest
Joshua

Seems like there should be plenty of time for this thunderstorm complex to exit the area and allow for the atmosphere to prime up for the evening.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

The NAM actually looks like it’s going to be right. HRRR didn’t show this little “arm” of storms coming down to affect the KC area.