An August Storm Producing Hit & Miss Big Areas Of Rain

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Good morning bloggers,

Well, we know Garnett, KS will get heavy rain this morning.  But, will this area of rain make it into KC?  Let’s take a look at the 5:20 AM radar:

I am heading out to the Head For The Cure 5k fundraiser this morning, benefitting brain cancer research.  They have been stressed about the weather for days when the chances of rain started increasing. Weather20220 provided a weather forecast for this event six months ago and we predicted there would be an upper level storm right over Kansas, and here it is, as the LRC helped tremendously with this weather prediction for a specific date.  Now, getting down to the specifics of rain on an event at a specific time, like 8 AM on August 25th, is still a Nowcasting situation. The LRC provided the insight and data to predict the overall storm, and now we have this area of rain moving our way.  That first band of light rain showers will miss this event, and then the main area, which was inching its way eastward, may or may not weaken. I timed it to arrive around 10 AM or so, based on the trend at 5:20 AM. So, let’s see how it looks in the next two to three hours. The 5k begins at 8 AM, and their event is done by 11 AM. The pressure has been on Weather2020 to bring them the best weather information.  One of the issues this organization deals with, and I can’t control it, is the apps. The weather apps bring the event organizers an updated forecast every hour.  The LRC prediction never budged, but those apps have gone from no chance of rain four days ago to 80% chance of rain by yesterday, whereas our prediction from Weather2020 has been for a good chance of rain in eastern Kansas from six months ago to the current moment.

Well, it arrived, and it was a deluge for 30 minutes at Corporate Woods.  Many other areas had less rain. Here is the video of the event being cancelled:

If you look at the little curl just southeast of Topeka, this has now become the main upper disturbance, and heavy downpours continue.  I drew this map in, and the disturbance redeveloped farther north and west.  It’s a fascinating day.

The Tropics:

Tropical Storm Dorian has formed over the tropical Atlantic Ocean east of the outer islands.  It will likely become a hurricane and we will track it in the next few days.  Another system off the Florida coast is struggling to get organized, and it may form into a named storm in the next few days as well, and most likely track out to sea.

The potential for more rain and thunderstorms will arrive on Monday.  Let’s enjoy today’s storm and we will look ahead in tomorrow’s blog.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Have a great Sunday as this storm slowly spins by.

Gary

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f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Battle of the models today.

Icon, GFS, and 12km NAM both show us not getting any heavy storms tonight because the storms in Nebraska make it here around the lunch hour.

NAM 3km and HRRR show the storms falling apart before they get here, and a severe weather event shaping up around 5-6 PM for the KC metro area. SPC appears to be leaning the direction of the HRRR & NAM 3km right now w/ the enhanced slight risk for all modes of severe weather including isolated Tornadoes.

Guess it’s wait and see what happens w/ the storms in Nebraska.

John
Guest
John

Well the NAM had no rain yesterday, and the ICON did. Well it rained almost all day so the NAM continues to be garbage lately.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

And new storms going up right now just near Topeka.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I’m out of KC for a while now, but it’s good to see the rain is back! 🙂

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Came home to an inch in the guage. What a wonderful summer.

F00dl3
Guest
F00dl3

2.75″ since 6 AM lenexa near old town! We got a deluge twice!

Big J
Guest
Big J

Crappy day weather wise near Smithville. Only .6” but kept the Harley’s and boats in the garages. Drizzled all day.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

It was a beautiful day

Big J
Guest
Big J

True if you enjoy crappy weather and excessive moisture.

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

This reminds me of the “October Surprise” of 1995. Just in August.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Why? It doesn’t look like any excessive rainfall on the Missouri side.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

*1996

J-ox
Guest
J-ox

1.65″ in NW Lawrence.

Mike M (Lenexa)
Guest
Mike M (Lenexa)

We had 1.74 in the rain gauge at 87th and Lackman.
Several rounds of heavy rains between 7:45am – 3:30pm, if you were inside the I-435 Loop it appears per the radar echos that we all received some beneficial moisture.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

The intensity has varied, but since the heavier stuff moved through this morning, it’s been a constant light-moderate rain in KCK west of I-635. Finally got a good soaker out of one of these disturbances here.

Mike H
Guest
Mike H

Almost an inch in Gladstone (.98) so far

RickMcKc
Guest
RickMcKc

1.25″ and still raining. Looks like a deformation zone on radar. Is that possible in August?

MightyMinni
Member
MightyMinni

Measured 1.98″ in OP at 127th and Pflumm

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Another flood advisory? They have got to be kidding!

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

1.3″ of beneficial rain here in Independence. No flooding concerns as we did not have any rain in the previous week.

John
Guest
John

Well there had to be flooding reported somewhere for them to issue a flood advisory. It is not a watch so flooding was reported somewhere in Jackson County.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

That’s the way it’s supposed to work, but this one was issued for expected heavy rain.

The National Weather Service issued a flood advisory for most of the Kansas City area Sunday afternoon.

The advisory was issued for southeastern Platte County, northern Cass County, southern Clay County and Jackson County in Missouri as well as Wyandotte County and eastern Johnson County in Kansas.

According to the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill, heavy rain is expected to cause flooding along streets, highways, streams and creeks.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Unbelievable rain for an hour in central and southern Johnson County on Kansas side. Was coming back from downtown and the rain, even at 15 mph was blinding. I would be interested to know the rainfall rates from it. Had to be 1-2 inches an hour rate.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Approaching an inch just north of Liberty. Pretty solid rain that keeps pulsating. There was a station that said this would be done by 1. While others said it could last until 4 or 5. At one point it appeared the first station was going to be correct but now it is still coming down fairly good. Just bummed I didn’t go with my hunch and mow last night. Oh well next chance will be Friday for that due to work. Probably have to double and triple mow then.

Kaden (Olathe)
Guest

What’s the severe weather risk looking like for KC tomorrow?

Matt
Guest
Matt

Olathe at moment Slight Risk.

Cate Eighmey
Guest
Cate Eighmey

Photoshoot scheduled for 4:30 in West Bottoms. Will the mist/rain be over by then?

Matt
Guest
Matt
WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

Mostly a miss here in north Topeka. Not even two tenths of an inch here. Hit and miss for sure Gary!

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

It’s been raining very lightly here in Prairie Village all morning, but when I just moved my car, the driveway was completely dry where it was sitting, so not much.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

So much rain in Lawrence

Dan M.
Guest
Dan M.

Gary – when do you see the next dry stretch happening? I know people want more rain, but for this of us who have had enough, we could really use a good week or two with dry weather. Heck how about a 3-4 day stretch would be nice. Thanks!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

there have been multi day dry stretches…of course more or less depending on your location

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

So Gary the event was cancelled.
Now casting 3 hrs before on Twitter did not go so good for you.
Did you think it was going to fizzle or simply miss the event location ?

Margie
Guest
Margie

Hit and miss is right on! I live right in the middle of KC. We have had a lot of rain events this month, but few events producing more than 1/4″ at a time. I have cracks in ground in my yard. Garnett got 14+ inches! We have seen less than 3 inches central KC in August. We got another 1/4″ this morning now it seems to be over. We have surely had plenty of humidity though! Ready for fall. Let’s move past this weather pattern.

Big J
Guest
Big J

Good thing you got rain today.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

68° with moderate rain showers in Linn Valley, everything is lush. Hottest year ever!

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

If you go east of KC, you’re in whiff territory. Not even a drop in Independence.

Backwoods4ever
Guest
Backwoods4ever

East of KC just got hammered! Ya never know lol

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Yeah, I expected it to weaken and fizzle out, and the radar echos showed it doing that, but then it strengthened again. Who knew?

Larry
Guest
Larry

As of 8:00 this morning, 1.33″ in NW Lawrence & still raining; 17.31″ for August so fall; and 52.17″ for the year so far. August and yearly totals are all-time records.

Big J
Guest
Big J

With a little bit of (bad) luck you guys could hot 70” for the year.

Rodney’s Clockwork Angels
Guest
Rodney’s Clockwork Angels

1.4 inches in East Lawrence. We had some thunder, but not bad. Update at 12:40 we have about 1.8 inches now. We are up to over 15 inches for the month!

Terry
Guest
Terry

It’s not a hit-or-miss storm here in KCK it’s flat out raining very hard .

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

I will confirm the KCK rain, was on my way to Wyandotte soccer fields and it was absolutely pouring. Needless to say game got cancelled when I was about 5 minutes from the complex. Not sure about rain just north of Liberty, but looks like maybe .2-.25 possibly. Will confirm when I get home.

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

Another storm, another few hundredths here in north Topeka. Looks like most of the KC metro it’s going to get some heavier rain from this one though.

Big J
Guest
Big J

Nowcasting is the only thing I trust much anymore after having rain showers falling that don’t even show up on radar the last few days. Hope this stuff misses Smithville. Heading to church a little later and don’t need the car getting dirty.

Dan Trout
Guest
Dan Trout

I will take the rain holding off until around after 10am. I’m Running at Head for the Cure this morning. I’m running for Team: No One Journeys Alone. They and many others are putting so much work into this event.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

I am going to go out on a limb and say if my driveway gets wet, then it will rain, if not it won’t! Happy 4 months until Christmas!

Jobu
Guest
Jobu

Hope it makes it to the Northland