Good morning bloggers,
Well, we know Garnett, KS will get heavy rain this morning. But, will this area of rain make it into KC? Let’s take a look at the 5:20 AM radar:
I am heading out to the Head For The Cure 5k fundraiser this morning, benefitting brain cancer research. They have been stressed about the weather for days when the chances of rain started increasing. Weather20220 provided a weather forecast for this event six months ago and we predicted there would be an upper level storm right over Kansas, and here it is, as the LRC helped tremendously with this weather prediction for a specific date. Now, getting down to the specifics of rain on an event at a specific time, like 8 AM on August 25th, is still a Nowcasting situation. The LRC provided the insight and data to predict the overall storm, and now we have this area of rain moving our way. That first band of light rain showers will miss this event, and then the main area, which was inching its way eastward, may or may not weaken. I timed it to arrive around 10 AM or so, based on the trend at 5:20 AM. So, let’s see how it looks in the next two to three hours. The 5k begins at 8 AM, and their event is done by 11 AM. The pressure has been on Weather2020 to bring them the best weather information. One of the issues this organization deals with, and I can’t control it, is the apps. The weather apps bring the event organizers an updated forecast every hour. The LRC prediction never budged, but those apps have gone from no chance of rain four days ago to 80% chance of rain by yesterday, whereas our prediction from Weather2020 has been for a good chance of rain in eastern Kansas from six months ago to the current moment.
Well, it arrived, and it was a deluge for 30 minutes at Corporate Woods. Many other areas had less rain. Here is the video of the event being cancelled:
If you look at the little curl just southeast of Topeka, this has now become the main upper disturbance, and heavy downpours continue. I drew this map in, and the disturbance redeveloped farther north and west. It’s a fascinating day.
Tropical Storm Dorian has formed over the tropical Atlantic Ocean east of the outer islands. It will likely become a hurricane and we will track it in the next few days. Another system off the Florida coast is struggling to get organized, and it may form into a named storm in the next few days as well, and most likely track out to sea.
The potential for more rain and thunderstorms will arrive on Monday. Let’s enjoy today’s storm and we will look ahead in tomorrow’s blog.
Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great Sunday as this storm slowly spins by.