150 to 200 Percent of Average Rainfall In Next 40 Days

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Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is cycling regularly.  There is organization to the chaos in the river of air above us within the troposphere.  You can read more about what Weather2020 has been doing over the past two decades in this article: Meteorological Technology International Magazine Go to page 72!  There was a GFS model run that came out with a major hurricane developing over the Gulf of Mexico and blasting Texas. We are confident that model run was wrong, and of course the next model run came out with no storm. Weather2020 has showcased the predictions of Gordon, Michael, Florence, Alberto, Harvey, Irma, and Maria in the past two years. We predicted this season to be quieter, and we still think that there will be a developing system in the Gulf of Mexico around September 10-18, and others over the Atlantic mostly curving off the east coast. So, pay attention to the next three weeks.

Weather2020 Prediction For The Next 40 Days:

How much rain do you think will fall between now and the first day of fall, which is September 23rd?  The same pattern that set up last fall will continue until right around that date, and then a massive transition takes place between September 23rd and October 7th.  In those two weeks the new LRC will set up.  So, let’s have another challenge.  I am predicting 150 to 200 percent of average rainfall.  Kansas City averages around 5.5 inches of rain between now and September 23:  So my prediction is for somewhere between 8.25″ and 11.00″ of rain to fall at KCI Airport.  Post your prediction in this blog entry and we will take on this challenge!

Did you see this cloud last night?

Andrew Donigan sent this picture in to us at 41 Action News last night.  What do you see in this picture?  This was a cumulonimbus cloud at around 7:15 PM that formed and dissipated in around 30 minutes.  While it was developing it appears to form a face.  We got all kinds of responses including this one:

I work with Steven St. John on Sports Radio 810 WHB every morning, although I won’t be on today, since I have a meeting.  Conrad tweeted this creation out last night.

The next seven days or so will pose more chances as northwest flow aloft  continues. The main anticyclones, that are supposed to be over land at the hottest time of the year, are over the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean.  This should be a wet pattern, and there is a 100% chance that there will be quite a few complexes of thunderstorms in the next week.  Will they all miss KC?  Let’s see how it sets up.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.  Have a great day!!!!  I am in meetings all morning, so I won’t be available for a few hours.

Gary

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Mike H
Guest
Mike H

Northern Kansas City will get more precip than southern. KCI 3.40, Stilwell 2.20

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

12.24 “

Jill
Guest
Jill

9.77 inches is my guess.

Nimbus
Guest
Nimbus

4.8 Inches at KCI

Dustin Hare
Guest
Dustin Hare

I have no clue what to guess, but might as well get in on the action!

14.27″

Joshie
Guest
Joshie

11.84

Larry
Guest
Larry

Since we’ve been hammered in NW Lawrence this year, I will go with 11.17″

Kolton
Guest
Kolton

13.4″

Dave from Shawnee
Guest
Dave from Shawnee

precip contest prediction = 9.77″

KCMadDog
Guest
KCMadDog

I predict 7.5″ – I would personally like more due to the extreme dryness some of us have has since the end of June though

Bobby
Guest
Bobby

13.26″

Backwoods4ever
Guest
Backwoods4ever

We have been getting between 1.5″ and 2.5″ every two weeks in Tightwad. So I’ll predict 7.75″ for KCI. 11″ down here in SE Henry County.

Eric
Guest
Eric

Going with 9.21″

RandyD Lawrence
Guest
RandyD Lawrence

I am going with 12.25”

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Gary I don’t know about that EOI being a 10. Mosquitos are bad!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3
Terwilliger
Guest
Terwilliger

9.75

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

The pesky hurricane is back, August 23 GFS, Louisiana landfall. Just for kicks.

LibertyWeatherGuy
Guest
LibertyWeatherGuy

7.77″ @ KCI.

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

2.93 inches.

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

Gary, kudos on having the confidence to put your 40 day forecast out there.

Nick
Guest
Nick

Hmmm, I’ll go with 9.45 at KCI, And say 4.10 for KSTJ.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

7.25 inches

Craig
Guest
Craig

Seeing as how I was the winner of the most recent contest, I’m just wondering what kind of prize I can get if I make it two in a row? Perhaps I can get a guest spot to sub in for Gerard some weekend??
At any rate…My official guess for KCI total rainfall between now and Sept 23 is 8.51″.

FTWMike
Member
FTWMike

Hello Gary and bloggers, I predict .25 for Fort Worth. But I’m loving my new home down here. Can’t wait for fall to hit, maybe late October I’m thinking!!

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

8.34”

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Just looked at the monthly precip maps for areas west of Salina to Colby and generally north and south of I-70 and compared them to previous years, rainfall totals have not been lower during the past 10 years for July in that given area. July of 2012 & 2014 had some deficiencies in moisture but for the most part this year is the driest.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

6.00″

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

17.38″

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

I see what you did there

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

As far as a prediction, as I mentioned in an earlier comment, this has boom or bust written all over it with the way the pattern has been recently. I’ll go with 4.75 inches at KCI.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

4.2″ by Sept 23.

For grins, 2.97 by the end of the 15 day period.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Low side for me…………..3.5 inches.

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

KCI: 6.2 inches

C M
Guest
C M

7.44″

Clint
Guest
Clint

11.15 INCHES

Roger
Guest
Roger

Our only wet month here in central/west-central Kansas (west of I-135 and south of I-70) was in May (8-16 inches, 4-12 inches above normal). January and February were near average. March was slightly below to near average. April was dry to very dry. June was somewhat erratic, with some areas receiving 2-3 inches above average rainfall, others 1-2 inches below average. July was dry to very dry. August, so far, has mostly been slightly below to near normal (with a few exceptions). I.E. 4 months of slightly below normal to near normal precipitation. 2 months of much below normal precipitation,… Read more »

jeffnKs
Guest
jeffnKs

12.53 in KC I live in Wichita so going to guess 7.94 down here.

Roger
Guest
Roger

I’ll go with 8.95″ in KC, but only 4.39″ in Hutchinson, the nearest big town near me.

Jon Behle
Guest

Welcome to the blog.. I’m Jon and I help out with some marketing and social media with weather 2020 but live in Wichita also. I have known Gary for ten years and many also in the Wichita television market. Are you familiar with the AMS chapter of Wichita? We are meeting soon! I’ll gladly send you the information on that!

Roger
Guest
Roger

It has been a long time since I attended one. A few years ago there was a big gap between meetings. I still get information through my email. The next one is August 20th right?

Jon Behle
Guest

Correct I’ll be there. We have meetings again generally every 3 months.

02906
Guest
02906

8.43″ Count on it!

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

For the record, I’ll say 7.77.

John
Guest
John

I will go with 3.7″ just because of what has been happening lately. I do not believe that the pattern has changed, but my opinion is that the LRC becomes less reliable at the surface during the summer months. While everything is still cycling right on schedule the surface conditions are very hard to predict on a day-to-day basis. That is why some areas around the region have seen excessive rainfall amounts and others nearby have seen little to no rain, in a short distance. Storm systems form when there are contrasting atmospheric conditions over a large area and during… Read more »

Blake
Guest
Blake

I’m thinking the end of the last cycle will be wet. 7.89 inches of rain at KCI.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Anyway I’m going to guess 6.66 inches.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

gulp

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

You’d all be livid if the official reporting station for KC was Rosecrans, no matter how many inches or rain you forecast you’d most likely end up with an official total much lower at Rosecrans in St. Joseph. I am not making a prediction other than the Buchanan county area will be on the lower end of totals between now and September 23rd.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Going with 9.6 at KCI

Ryan Johnson
Guest
Ryan Johnson

9.4″

Mike
Guest
Mike

“massive transition takes place between September 23rd and October 7th. In those two weeks the new LRC will set up.”

Why did the LRC dates keep changing? Isn’t it setting up from the beginning of October to the middle of November?

John
Guest
John

It transtions from the old pattern that we are currently in to the new pattern that will become established for the next year. Then the new pattern starts cycling after the first week of October. Gary then will wait for things to start repeating to determine cycle length. The dates have never changed Gary has determined when the transition period is and when the new cycle starts.

Jeff
Guest
Jeff

How does last years LRC influence next years…. Or are they totally independent?

Bob
Guest
Bob

I’m saying 9.5 inches in south Overland Park and -2 inches at Kurt’s house 😉

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I’d agree with that, actually 1.4 at my house and .7 at Rosecrans in St. Joseph.

steve p
Guest
steve p

since I know neither Bob nor Kurt, I’ll pull my “prediction” out of (nowhere) and say -2″ at Bob’s (sorry Bob), 9.5″ at Kurt’s (you lucky guy) and 11.5″ b/c my math is bad halfway btw them here near Zona Rosa. how’s that for randomness?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

storms split around me last night, south and north got a heavier rain but I got less than .1″ I’m not complaining, I have a bulldozer digging a new pond and don’t need rain until he is done. I want to do some pond management and stack some rock structure, spawning pebbles/sand, assemble a few cedar piles so I can get some fish growing ASAP. Looks like good weather rest of the week to get that done and then the rains can come and fill it up! I will say the big rains start up again here in about 2… Read more »

Troy
Guest
Troy

The last time I dug a pond it filled twice before they got it done. Then it took more than a year before it had any water in it. Any construction project I have ever started has caused tremendous amounts of rain and snow.

steve p
Guest
steve p

so get to digging Troy. and wash your car while you’re at it.

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

I predict 13.25″. Aiming high!

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

I will predict 9.85” of rain between now and September 23 at the airport in KC.

Rodney (Ashland, MO)