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Good morning bloggers,

I woke up at 4:30 AM this morning and saw this:

Good news for northwestern Missouri:  look at the torrential thunderstorms that just tracked across Maryville, MO and surrounding communities.  The thunderstorms had dipped all the way down to just north of KC by 4:45 AM, but as has been happening will likely skip, or bypass the city.

6:30 AM Radar:

And, it happened. The thunderstorms intensified after the outflow boundary passed through the KC metro area. Thunderstorms flared up east of Sedalia just two hours later.  This is the type of thing that has been happening lately.

Okay, I am going to do it.  I am going to post this rainfall prediction from the overnight models:

These two maps above show the ten day rainfall model total from the GFS Legacy and the new operational GFS.  There are many more chances of rain showing up. We have had no shortage of chances of thunderstorms, and they have been in our area the entire summer.

There is a weak cold front that will slide slowly through us later this evening, and it may go by quietly with not much if any thunderstorm development.  Let’s see how that happens tonight, and then Wednesday evening is our next chance of thunderstorms, according to some of the models.

A Heat Advisory is in effect today!  We may have our 5th 95° day of the summer.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog and sharing in this weather experience.  Have a great start to the week.

Gary

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f00dl3GaryBlue FlashFrankieAndrew H Recent comment authors
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Andrew H
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Andrew H

The pattern has changed. Or shifted. Whatever anyone wants to call it, it is different.
Not just “jet stream at its weakest” different. If that was the case, it happens every year.
So why wouldn’t that be factored into long range predictions by 2020 ?
This current dry stretch does not mirror any other cycle does it ?
This humidity stinks. Sorry but my A.C. bit the dust yesterday. Heading to hotel now !
HVAC guys are swamped ! But one coming tomorrow.
Cya !

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

I’m curious to know whether the LRC is failing this summer & there is some kind of new or alternate pattern going on, or if the LRC has been accurate but has just faced unfortunate surface conditions? Because whatever it is, is nothing like the LRC was before the summer started.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Little spin moving east through Iowa
To bad it’s to far north of us and as Gary mentioned, this mornings activity killed it

Craig
Guest
Craig

You know what would be nice? An explanation.
Jeff…who does a nice job on this blog…just stated on air at 4:45 that “bigger storms to the south while KC can expect just sprinkles.”
OK, fine. But why? There are plenty of people in the audience that would learn from a detailed explanation.

Backwoods4ever
Guest
Backwoods4ever

Yes. That would be great. An explanation. Or at least where south. I’m down here and in the kshb viewing area, so where will it rain! Needing some rain down here

Backwoods4ever
Guest
Backwoods4ever

In the afternoon segment of kshb said thunderstorms will develop far south of kc. Don’t know if Clinton/Warsaw is way south. Where way south are ya saying? Curious is all. Gary or another blogger care to elaborate. I don’t have time to look at futurecast or models. But I do find time to browse here lol

Kaden (Olathe)
Guest
Kaden (Olathe)

When does the second season of severe weather start for our area? Beginning to see storms fire back up across the Midwest.

KirksvilleDave
Guest
KirksvilleDave

Heavier rain about 30 miles north & south of Kirksville. Got 0.30” of rain – not much, but better than nothing. The grass is pretty brown up here.

Nimbus
Guest
Nimbus

When does the decreasing sunlight flip the general weather pattern from “Hot Summer” to autumn? Or asked another way……is there a certain level of “total time of daylight” that users in fall weather or is it not that simple? We are loosing daylight at an increasing rate both morning and evening.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Its all air masses and what is their origin. You can have a day in December that feels warm if you’re sitting in the sun. The sun angle in South Florida in January is about the same as our sun angle in March, but with one you have 70’s and with the other you have 40’s. Because of the origin of the air masses.

Length of daylight doesn’t have anything directly to do with it either. The days at the arctic circle are still 18 hours long now but there are no heat waves to be found.

Nick
Guest
Nick

Actually, to be fair, the area that got hit last night is about the same area to the northeast of St.Joe that has been getting hit(not as often as the areas to the southwest of St. Joe) but if you look at the water.weather.gov site and look at the past day, then the past thirty days, last nights event fell right into that band of higher totals that runs NW to SE north and east of St. Joe. So for here I don’t really see it as a change in fortune, but we will see what the back half of… Read more »

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Wish I could upload a photo, I actually have a slice of air…..(with whip cream on top).

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

The air is thick, oppressive out there today.

Nick
Guest
Nick

Maybe the GFS will go the way of Coke? Now we have GFS Classic, and New GFS, which no one likes, 😆 Go Pepsi(Euro) 😉

Ted in STJoe
Guest
Ted in STJoe

Another whopping 0.20 inches of rain this morning

Nate
Guest
Nate

I find it very interesting the models are now picking up on the Military / CIA weather manipulation operations.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Leave that conspiracy garbage out of the blog

Roger
Guest
Roger

Unfortunately, climate weather modification programs have been around for 70+ years. 2000+ nuclear bombs detonating over the south Pacific Islands and as close as Nevada in the 1940’s.

Roger
Guest
Roger

“Conspiracy of Silence” more like it.

https://www.stripes.com/news/conspiracy-of-silence-for-some-veterans-toxic-exposure-didn-t-end-with-atomic-blasts-1.586395

“In the 50’s and early 60’s, that’s strictly tests for the convenience of the government. It had nothing to do with war.”

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Didn’t China seed clouds and apply agents to disperse the smog a few years back during the summer Olympic games?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

we wish we could control the weather. Other than a little cloud seeding…not much we can do. Stop believing all that crazy crap you see online..there is a conspiracy theory video on just about everything these days

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

There was some rain and thunder in Parkville around 3AM, very briefly.

C M
Guest
C M

Received 1.5 inches of rain last night in Maryville. Thunder woke me up around 3:30 am, and some of the lightning prediction maps were showing 200-300 strikes per minute across NW Missouri, talk about intense.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I recorded 1.65″ at work and 2″ at my house. That make 3″ total for the last two days. Yes the lightning was crazy. Didn’t get much sleep last night either. I woke up and had to take my yard swing down so it wouldn’t blow away and clean one of my gutter out so it wouldn’t flood my basement! Have a great day Bloggers!
Michael

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

I picked up 2.47” of rain in southern Boone County from the complex that went through Sunday morning into early afternoon that prompted flash flood warnings through early evening but was barely missed one county to the north by the early morning storms. My lawn was turning brown so the almost 2 1/2 inches will help greatly to green things back up.

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

It’s pretty humid outside. Has anyone else noticed that the bugs have gotten bad too? Lots of flies and mosquitos buzzing around.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

My ankles are plagued with mosquito bites.

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

What are the chances of a thunderstorm tonight?

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Gary wouldn’t you like to live out here in central Kansas and do your forecasting, “hmmmm, let’s see, with 98% confidence the forecast for central Kansas west of Salina is for hot temperatures, oh yes very hot, and umm, dry, oh yes very dry, and ummm, oh yes,yes, this will last for the rest of your lives”.

Roger
Guest
Roger

It doesn’t look promising for us. The only consolation is May, which brought 12-16 inches of rain in and around my location.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

“We may have our 5th 95° day of the summer.”

Seems like a low total for KC so far this summer.

Ted in STJoe
Guest
Ted in STJoe

Yep I agree.

John
Guest
John

The no Summer Summer

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

May make up for it later this month into the first half of September. We have had lots of September heat the past decade or so (but THE WORST was 2000).

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The NWS in Topeka predicted correctly—we got a thunderstorm last night. It took six & one-half hours to get here from eastern Colorado, but it was still packing a punch when it reached this area north of Manhattan. At 2 AM, nearby lightning strikes with loud thunder accompanied heavy rain. The storm moved through quickly, and after the lightning let up at 2:30, I ran out into light rain to check the rain gauge, which had already collected 1” of rain—a gully washer for sure. The soil was still damp from the rain yesterday, so streams of water were running… Read more »

Troy
Guest
Troy

We kept missing those over here in Western RP county but finally hit one with 1.40 overnight.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

While it lasted, the storm was intense with lightning strikes and torrential rain, but it had no wind. We got snagged by the weaker southern end of that line and ended up with 1.15” of rain. Reports from CoCoRaHS show they had a lot more activity 8 miles northwest of here.
Date, Time, Station Number, Station Name, Total Precip in inches
8/12/2019,  7:00 AM,  KS-MS-5, Blue Rapids 0.2 WSW,  3.79 

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

Gary,
Do you see the planets aligning and bringing us a good chance of measurable rain anytime soon? It seems like the pattern is avoiding the stateline and about 25 miles on each side. It is very frustrating…

Big J
Guest
Big J

Another nice rain, .12. The grass continues to grow.

Utica Weather Enthusiast
Guest
Utica Weather Enthusiast

I just woke up to some gusty winds and torrential rain in Utica, it seems to have quit already though

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Especially frustrating because I actually woke up 20 minutes earlier as the rain looked like it was moving our way, then it fell apart. It’s an apparent feature of our next LRC – pattern that is controlling the surface right now – that storms are drying up as they approach us.

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

Another interesting day…. and another whiff for 80%+ of the viewing area. It refuses to rain more than a few hundredths for most of us. Baffling how the rain has been south, west, and now north and east. Very little rain for those between KC and Topeka who are north of I70 over the past month.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Ran into some showers on the way to the airport and looks like I may have gotten a little on the lawn. Hope tonight’s chance brings some additional rain. Have a great Monday!