Monsoon Disturbances, Warm Front and Cold Front

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Good Sunday bloggers,

We have three main weather features to track through Tuesday. I am sure you can guess them if you read the title. We have seen countless disturbances track out of the Rockies and southwest USA from the monsoon the last several weeks. They have been mostly targeting other areas besides extreme eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri.

The latest disturbance is tracking across northern Kansas this Sunday morning with a large area of weakening rain and thunderstorms. The heaviest thunderstorms will track south of KC, but all locations should see .10″ to .50″ as many locations get into the light and moderate rain. There is a disturbance in the southwest USA that will split in two today. One piece will bring a round of thunderstorms tonight, mostly for Nebraska, Iowa and far northern Missouri. However, the thunderstorms tonight may be tricky to place. The second piece may affect the I-70 corridor Monday night. We will get to the fronts and the situation tonight below.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The morning rain and thunderstorms will be across northeast Missouri and southeast Iowa. We will be partly to mostly cloudy, warm and very humid with highs in the 80s. A few showers and thunderstorms may be around with a warm front to the south. This warm front could be a tricky.

TONIGHT: The warm front will head north and a large area of very heavy to possibly severe thunderstorms will form north of the front as a new disturbance comes out of the Rockies. The data is pretty consistent on it being located from Nebraska to southern Iowa and far northern Missouri. We have to watch this closely as the zone could set up farther south, closer to I-70, as the warm front may still be south of I-70. Also, dew points will be very high which can lead to the thunderstorms forming farther south. This thunderstorm zone could easily create flash flooding.

MONDAY: Regardless of where the thunderstorm zone sets up, we should get in the high heat with highs well into the 90s. The only way the heat stays south is if the zone is so far south, it keeps the front south most of the day. There is a slight chance of that.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: One last monsoon disturbance will track out of the southwest USA as a cold front sags south. This will create another zone of thunderstorms. This data has it near us. But, it could end up farther south if the front is faster, or there may not be as many thunderstorms if the last disturbance is weaker.

So, by Tuesday most locations should see .50″ of rain. The potential is there for much more, but as stated above, there is uncertainty on exactly where the thunderstorm zones will set up the next two nights.

Wednesday-Friday will see highs in the 80s and there are slight thunderstorm chances as hotter air tries to head back north.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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Roger
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Roger

4:00 PM at Fort Smith, Arkansas:
Temp: 96
Dewpt: 82
Heat Index: 120 !!!!!!!!!!

MattinLV
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MattinLV

That sounds miserable!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Horrific! :-O

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Out this way, midway between Manhattan & Marysville, we got 0.33” of rain from this 3rd August rainfall, bringing our month-to-date total to 4.72” and our ytd to 33.77”.

Roger
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Roger

Places in SE Kansas near Chanute and Parsons have 10″ this month.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Yes, and the Neosho River is out of its banks for the 2nd time this month.
The NWS in Topeka gives us a 60% chance of thunderstorms tonight, and that line of storms is presently (7:26 PM) in eastern Colorado and western Nebraska.
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_lite_loop.php

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

.15″ here in Independence.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

.2” just north of Liberty.

Big J
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Big J

.19 between Smithville and Platte City. Perfect to keep things nice and green.

Ted in STJOE
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Ted in STJOE

less than .20 in. a dry hole up here

Kurt
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Kurt

I got lucky just south of you .7 in the rain gauge very much needed

C.C
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C.C

So needless to say you didn’t get missed

Kurt
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Kurt

Yet you said something? Most of St Joseph proper got much less but most everyone seems to overlook how dry it is in immediate St Joseph last 45-60 days. They’d rather get upset and comment when they should learn to refrain

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Farmers Almanac talking “chilly” weather after Aug 23rd and sticking around for a few weeks. Of course they also said last winter would be mild. Does the LRC agree, cooler and wetter after Aug 23rd?

JoeK
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JoeK

While I place little value in their weather forecasting, I believe we will return to a cooler and much more wet pattern at the end of august into September. I know some believe the pattern has changed, I don’t agree. The systems are still cycling on schedule, they are being heavily influenced by the time of year ( jet stream/summer) and believe the last cycle will be more reflective of previous months. Just my two cents

Rich (east of Topeka)
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Rich (east of Topeka)

.25 inches here. Thought it would be more, but guess it wasn’t as heavy a rain as I thought this morning.

Terry
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Terry

Do for get tomorrow evening/ night strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible PR NWS

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

NINTH!!!!

Stl78(winona, mn)
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Stl78(winona, mn)

Hi kc peeps, hows everyone been? Ready for fall? We received a nice break from the heat last wk and this week looks nice as well. Ill take low to mid 70s in aug any day of the week. Anyhow, hope all are well and your chiefs are ready for the season. Go vikings….skol!😉

Ben
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Ben

We’ve had over 2 inches here in Chillicothe this morning. Very welcome August rain. This will push the soybeans a long way and help with grain fill on the corn.

Weather Enthusiast
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Weather Enthusiast

I picked up .50 this morning in Utica mo, I’m hoping we get even more

Kurt
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Kurt

Meanwhile St Joseph consistently missed out again. Really need more rain and we are definitely in developing drought up here, regardless of what anyone else nor from here thinks

Johnny
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Johnny

Imagine that

Johnny
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Johnny

Just move kurt, save us all the trouble

Kurt
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Kurt

What’s it to you? Move on and quit trolling!

Inspector
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Inspector

Maybe tonight Kurt. Was up there yesterday. It is dry no doubt

Kurt
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Kurt

Thanks, trying to fill in to my west. Wouldn’t mind an all day soaking rain.

Ted in STJOE
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Ted in STJOE

he is correct i do not water my lawn and it is burning up.

Noah Finegan
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Noah Finegan

Are you sure? Looks like your about to get inch of rain. Huh.

Inspector
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Inspector

We are due for a fluke soaker

Kurt
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Kurt

Finally started pouring up here, really good rain developed just west and moving across my area. No wind or lightning

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Nice steady rain going on here. My watering my garden yesterday worked!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Keep it up ice boy!

steve p
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steve p

now go wash your car. we got only 0.15″ near Zona. I’m washing my car this afternoon.

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Happy Sunday everyone!!!

Nice rainy early morning here in Washington Creek Valley….a few decent down pours…will probably wind up with .30-.40 when all is said and done. Perfect to give the grass and beds a bit of a drink…..

Have a great Sunday everyone

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

C M
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C M

Recorded right at an inch of much needed rain up here in Maryville with the first round of rain.

Mike
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Mike

Last

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

First