Good Sunday bloggers,
We have three main weather features to track through Tuesday. I am sure you can guess them if you read the title. We have seen countless disturbances track out of the Rockies and southwest USA from the monsoon the last several weeks. They have been mostly targeting other areas besides extreme eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri.
The latest disturbance is tracking across northern Kansas this Sunday morning with a large area of weakening rain and thunderstorms. The heaviest thunderstorms will track south of KC, but all locations should see .10″ to .50″ as many locations get into the light and moderate rain. There is a disturbance in the southwest USA that will split in two today. One piece will bring a round of thunderstorms tonight, mostly for Nebraska, Iowa and far northern Missouri. However, the thunderstorms tonight may be tricky to place. The second piece may affect the I-70 corridor Monday night. We will get to the fronts and the situation tonight below.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The morning rain and thunderstorms will be across northeast Missouri and southeast Iowa. We will be partly to mostly cloudy, warm and very humid with highs in the 80s. A few showers and thunderstorms may be around with a warm front to the south. This warm front could be a tricky.
TONIGHT: The warm front will head north and a large area of very heavy to possibly severe thunderstorms will form north of the front as a new disturbance comes out of the Rockies. The data is pretty consistent on it being located from Nebraska to southern Iowa and far northern Missouri. We have to watch this closely as the zone could set up farther south, closer to I-70, as the warm front may still be south of I-70. Also, dew points will be very high which can lead to the thunderstorms forming farther south. This thunderstorm zone could easily create flash flooding.
MONDAY: Regardless of where the thunderstorm zone sets up, we should get in the high heat with highs well into the 90s. The only way the heat stays south is if the zone is so far south, it keeps the front south most of the day. There is a slight chance of that.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: One last monsoon disturbance will track out of the southwest USA as a cold front sags south. This will create another zone of thunderstorms. This data has it near us. But, it could end up farther south if the front is faster, or there may not be as many thunderstorms if the last disturbance is weaker.
So, by Tuesday most locations should see .50″ of rain. The potential is there for much more, but as stated above, there is uncertainty on exactly where the thunderstorm zones will set up the next two nights.
Wednesday-Friday will see highs in the 80s and there are slight thunderstorm chances as hotter air tries to head back north.
Have a great week.