Two Main Rain Chances, One Very Hot Day

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Good Saturday bloggers,

Since June 24th we have seen numerous areas of rain and thunderstorms weaken and/or fall apart as they approach northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. They have also set up 25-100 miles west when we thought they would be closer to KC.

Rainfall since June 24th varies greatly across the region from around one foot in Ottawa, KS to barely over 1″ at St. Joseph. The average rainfall since 6/24 is around 7″, so most locations are below average.

We have been in an active pattern as countless disturbances have been rotating around and upper level high in the southwest USA that is now in the southern Plains. These disturbances track into the southwest USA, create the monsoon thunderstorms, and then head out into the Plains. Once in the Plains, they generate clusters of rain and thunderstorms, but again, mostly missing KC. We are tracking two disturbances the next 5 days. Let’s go through the forecast day by day.

SATURDAY: It will be partly cloudy, very warm and very humid with highs around 90°. There will be a light south-southeast breeze at 5-15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: A large area of rain and thunderstorms will be found across western, central Kansas and southern Nebraska.

SUNDAY MORNING: Well, you can see as the rain approaches our area it begins to fall apart. So, we should see some rain and thunderstorms, but some locations may see a few drops. The rain will dissipate by around noon followed by a warm and very humid afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: A large cluster of very heavy to severe thunderstorms will track across Nebraska and Iowa. We will be mostly dry, although a few showers and thunderstorms may move through as we experience the south edge of the main thunderstorms. A warm front will be surging through setting up our one very hot day.

MONDAY: This will be our hottest day of the week as temperatures rise to the mid and upper 90s. The big thunderstorm cluster will be moving into the Great Lakes.

TUESDAY: The cold front will drift south as another disturbance tracks out of the southwest. This will generate more thunderstorms. But, as you can see not all locations will see rain. At least we will all see cooler, more average temperatures Tuesday through Friday. Our second heat wave of the summer may occur the week of the 19th. Our first heat wave occurred July 17-20.

RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 5-7 DAYS: You can see the heaviest rain is north, south and west of our area. These areas will see 1-3″ of rain. We will see .25″ to 1″ with some locations seeing 1″-2″. Now, could we see more? Could it change? Sure, but until we see evidence that we are in for a widespread, heavier rain event, we will go with the lower totals for now. Also, could it be less?  Yep.  If you don’t see much rain by Tuesday afternoon, then it may be several days before rain chances return.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

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Michael CasteelUrbanityBlue FlashBig Jsteve p Recent comment authors
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Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

I recorded 1.28″ up here in Maryville, MO at 7:30am. Much needed rain. Our crops up in Nodaway County actually look pretty good considering the wacky year we’ve had so far. Have a blessed Sunday Bloggers!
Michael

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Ridge over the newly developed D1 area performed as it should, storms just couldn’t survive over the drought area hence another meaningful precip-free zone. Sure doesn’t feel like the old LRC.

steve p
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steve p

Sunday morning and we’re about to see widespread, if light, rain. GFS has consistently shown significantly more rain than forecast. In link for example, it shows close to 3″ just west of town and 1.5″ at least in KC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ncus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2019081106&fh=48

Adam
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Adam

Wake up to work out outside and it’s raining. 🙁

Big J
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Big J

Storms to the north of us, storms to the south. Here I am stuck in the green with you.

But the property is still green and lush about 10 mlles NE of KCI. We still are many inches of precipitation over average for the year, and way over for the last 10 months. Dry is good.

I haven’t had to pull the zero turn out of the mud with the 4 wheeler for over a month, a blessing.

Big J
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Big J

Looks like I hit a nerve with all the negative marks😂😂😂. I don’t make up the news, I just report it.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

We were just looking at some old home movies from summer 2012, I had forgotten what dry really looks like. Brown crispy lawn where there was any grass left. You could just feel the heat and see the yellow haze in the air. This year has been almost perfect in Independence for frequency and quantity of rain. So you won’t hear any complaints from me if we miss out on one or two of the rain chances.

mark
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mark

Not ready to jump on the bandwagon yet. They have been fairly accurate this year, but this is the first in the last 5 years that they were even close to accurate.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

This complex will probably gives those south of I-70 .75” while north of I-70, less than .2”. I am hoping for more than that, but know what the reality of more is unlikely.

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

I highly doubt it will be much more than a tenth for any of the metro. All of the heavy rain is blowing up well north, like Maryville should get a decent downpour. Any rain south of there will be minimal. This thing is collapsing south very fast and it’ll end up south of Ottawa in no time.

Nick
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Nick

Hmmm, the HRRR and the 3km NAM are saying that the complex of storms in west Kansas… Might hit KSTJ… Hmmmm…. :p

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Last year, the so-called “pattern” changed in August (north of Manhattan). We had a dry July with only 2.03” of rain. Rainfall in August was slightly above average (4.6”), and September was excessively wet (7.35”), with 6.49” of that 7.35” coming on 5 consecutive days of rain from September 2nd through September 6th. Then we got 0.61” of rain on September 20th and 5 days of drizzle on the last five days of that month. The deluge that began on September 2nd started our first of four floods on the Big Blue River in 2018. Pottawatomie & Marshall County roads… Read more »

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I just watered my garden, that should make it rain tomorrow.

chris
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chris

Heat wave August 19th? Now we’re on a 33 day cycle? Can we agree that the cycle can be adjusted to whatever fits?

J-ox NW Lawrence
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J-ox NW Lawrence

What date(s) accounted for the return of the ‘Bomb Cyclone’ rolling through?

Inspector
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Inspector

The pattern has changed

Andrew H
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Andrew H

I agree !!

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Does seem to be that way.

If this is the new pattern creeping into the old pattern, makes me wonder about the new pattern.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

I casually predicted 19-20 being hot and dry a while ago…if it comes true, I’ll be shocked.

For the record, I based it on: 17-18 ended on the “two cold days” part of the pattern. Is that what made this year (mostly) cold and wet?

18-19 is “scheduled” to end on the “four-day heatwave” part of the pattern, so if that affects 19-20, how will it do so?

Johnny
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Johnny

“The heaviest rain will be North, south, west, east of our area”

Johnny
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Johnny

It’s always comical how it either dissipates as it gets to KC or it sets up just SE of the city. What was once a promising pattern has went to shit. I don’t understand it.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

The southeast thing is nothing new. It’s been known since the beginning. Gary said himself in the winter forecast way back at the beginning that he expected storms to hit areas southeast of us a little harder, and that’s been consistent throughout. It was especially noticeable with snow totals.

As for the dissipation…that is very new and very different, and I have no way to explain it. This feels almost like summer 2018 again. Hot and humid and endless localized intense downpours that never seem to hit places where people actually live.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

they sure have hit Lawrence, I actually live there

KirksvilleDave
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KirksvilleDave

Totally agree – NE Missouri has been missed a lot (except May) from lots of precip. In October, Chillicothe got 10”, while we got barely an inch. Western Missouri got much more snow this past winter than we did. While all is dry, the western half has gotten more rain this summer than the NE. Still the same pattern.

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

Gone to crap, yep, I agree Pattern change, look at what that HP is doing, it’s just pushing storms farther north and there seems to be a prime convection area around that HP. Our QP trough is gone, has been gone since mid June. With the flow being right at its weakest point, a change is in store, yes. But it will be at least 2 to 3 weeks before we start seeing the subtle changes. Can we pick them out??? How much different will it look??? Me, I always look at the jet stream, and wobbles or variations in… Read more »

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

I will welcome any rain but based on recent performance, I will keep watering because I am not counting on it in my area! Picture in a picture night on the tv. Go Sporting KC and go Chiefs!!!!