Good Saturday bloggers,
Since June 24th we have seen numerous areas of rain and thunderstorms weaken and/or fall apart as they approach northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. They have also set up 25-100 miles west when we thought they would be closer to KC.
Rainfall since June 24th varies greatly across the region from around one foot in Ottawa, KS to barely over 1″ at St. Joseph. The average rainfall since 6/24 is around 7″, so most locations are below average.
We have been in an active pattern as countless disturbances have been rotating around and upper level high in the southwest USA that is now in the southern Plains. These disturbances track into the southwest USA, create the monsoon thunderstorms, and then head out into the Plains. Once in the Plains, they generate clusters of rain and thunderstorms, but again, mostly missing KC. We are tracking two disturbances the next 5 days. Let’s go through the forecast day by day.
SATURDAY: It will be partly cloudy, very warm and very humid with highs around 90°. There will be a light south-southeast breeze at 5-15 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT: A large area of rain and thunderstorms will be found across western, central Kansas and southern Nebraska.
SUNDAY MORNING: Well, you can see as the rain approaches our area it begins to fall apart. So, we should see some rain and thunderstorms, but some locations may see a few drops. The rain will dissipate by around noon followed by a warm and very humid afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: A large cluster of very heavy to severe thunderstorms will track across Nebraska and Iowa. We will be mostly dry, although a few showers and thunderstorms may move through as we experience the south edge of the main thunderstorms. A warm front will be surging through setting up our one very hot day.
MONDAY: This will be our hottest day of the week as temperatures rise to the mid and upper 90s. The big thunderstorm cluster will be moving into the Great Lakes.
TUESDAY: The cold front will drift south as another disturbance tracks out of the southwest. This will generate more thunderstorms. But, as you can see not all locations will see rain. At least we will all see cooler, more average temperatures Tuesday through Friday. Our second heat wave of the summer may occur the week of the 19th. Our first heat wave occurred July 17-20.
RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 5-7 DAYS: You can see the heaviest rain is north, south and west of our area. These areas will see 1-3″ of rain. We will see .25″ to 1″ with some locations seeing 1″-2″. Now, could we see more? Could it change? Sure, but until we see evidence that we are in for a widespread, heavier rain event, we will go with the lower totals for now. Also, could it be less? Yep. If you don’t see much rain by Tuesday afternoon, then it may be several days before rain chances return.
Have a great weekend.