An August Storm In Kansas Misses KC

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Good morning bloggers,

An August storm is slowly moving across the southern plains this morning.  The writing was on the wall last night for this complex of thunderstorms, a huge morning Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), to track across southern Kansas and mostly miss KC.  It is rather large, and the northern extension of the rain is heading east into eastern Kansas.   A surface outflow boundary pushed south yesterday from the second band of thunderstorms late Wednesday morning over central Kansas. This allowed the front to set up farther south and this is leaving much of northern Missouri high and dry.  It was becoming obvious this was happening, but I didn’t want to believe it.  It is the second week in a row when I was expecting heavy rain in KC, and possibly 2 to 5 inches. And, for the second week in a row it appears to be leaving some areas in the dust.

The radar image above is from 7:30 AM.  That is a large area of rain with embedded thunderstorms.  The northern extension of the rain shield is approaching eastern Kansas. Let’s see if it survives all the way to KC before falling apart.

Have a great day.  For us weather enthusiasts, it is like a punch to the gut as we have so many chances.  Yes, yesterday was nice to have that band of thunderstorms move in, and here we are today on the northern edge.  We are in the Polar Vortex part of the cycling pattern and there is a big upper low over Canada right on schedule. The interaction of the jet stream to the north and the weak summer anticylone over the southwestern United States has created the conditions for all of these chances of thunderstorms.  The next one after today appears to be early Sunday.  Let’s see how that one sets up, with a high potential of frustrating many of us again.

Have a great day.

Gary

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JanWillyInTopekaHeat MizerFrankieEastOfEden Recent comment authors
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Jan
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Jan

Does anyone know if Lindsborg was hit by this storm? And if there was any damage? Thanks

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

Where is today’s blog?

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

Was forecasted by many to show up this morning but went poof apparently. Common theme recently.

Frankie
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Frankie

Getting excited for those late September cold fronts…

Michael
Guest
Michael

When is the expected heat wave (mini?)?

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Assuming the pattern throws no surprises (like the February two-day shift), August 20-23 or very nearby, taking the form of four hot days with “dropoffs” on either side, likely peaking on the third day.

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

I’m not seeing anything on any heatwave anywhere else

Big J
Guest
Big J

I guesss I’m gonna be able to do my first rabbi special tomorrow rather than a full mow. Thank you dry weather, it will save me several hours of mowing.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Sorry, 70 degree dewpoint and no breeze is not an EOI of 10. Unless you’re in the pool.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

NOAA showing moderate risk of extreme heat Aug 16-22, must be the warmup Gary referred to a couple of weeks ago. Better get some rain before Tuesday because dry and hot is on order. I personally can’t wait for shorter days, the heat and dryness has become the norm (obviously today was the exception), gets old.

Big J
Guest
Big J

I guess the 4pm forecast yesterday was spot on. Loving the dry weather. Grass is finally slowing down:)
From Oct of 18 till June of 19 we were a swamp. This is a welcome reprieve.

phtransplant
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phtransplant

Free country, everyone with their own opinion. But has been a welcome relief to have missed the recent rains here in Pleasant Hill. The July 4-5 event with 7+ inches here made it just fine if it doesn’t rain again until September. Again, realize that’s not the case for everyone.

Dan
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Dan

My thoughts exactly. I was *thrilled* that this storm went west. 10 inches in my Douglas County rain gauge in the past week (8 of them coming in one 12-hour period) = way too much of a good thing.

Hope KC and areas east get some love soon.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

There’s only 138 days until Christmas.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

Still time for those last minute gifts….

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

Another giant nothing burger for the metro. Hope you didn’t change your plans based on the forecast.

Three7s
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Three7s

It was pretty obvious yesterday after the rain ended and the outflow boundary was well south of the metro, that nothing would happen here with this morning’s setup.

John
Guest
John

I do not know how many people have plans overnight other than sleeping and work. It was never predicted to be an all day event, and last night it was pretty obvious that it was not going to rain in the metro.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

I had to cancel my sand bag order and the water rescue service.

John
Guest
John

Well that is unfortunate I guess. I feel like this is a joke though, but if not I didn’t know you could reserve a water rescue service?🚁

Big J
Guest
Big J

Do you want fries with that?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

What I want to know is if Roger finally got some rain in South Central KS? Where are you exactly Roger? I got another .2″ last night for grand total of .75″ and its showering now but the rain shield is shrinking in size and decreasing in strength so doubt KC gets much of anything.

Roger
Guest
Roger

Locally, I received 0.72″ of rain in central Reno County. However, just a few miles west of me, in the western third of Reno County, they got NOTHING. I really feel for farmers and ranchers there. Since June 22nd, I have seen about 1.50 inches. Just a little bit further west (maybe 15-20 miles) and the amounts drop off to under 0.50″.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Your area stands to get more this evening and overnight as the next flare up targets areas further south and west than this morning. HRRR is favoring southern KS and Northern OK for the next round

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Gary when’s the bomb cyclone part coming ?
I’m sure someone answered but I missed it.
Very muggy out this morning

Observer
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Observer

The polar vortex in Canada right now is what brought the bomb cyclone in winter.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Less than a quarter inch west of Salina, meanwhile they were hit with 1-6″ in Salina. The heavy rain pooled north of I-70 west of Salina and dumped 3-5″, as it came thru the wind farm it fell apart and we ended with light rain under a yellow/red radar,echo, second time in a week this has happened (last time hardly a drop). It is very odd to me how this happens, but I see it every year as storms try to roll thru from the northwest.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

How? I saw the estimates out that way and looked like huge rains widespread? Feel your pain.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Radar estimates have been off, I saw they showed an inch overhead which is laughable. That’s why I am wondering how the radar is reflecting heavy precip that is not occurring.

Roger
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Roger

It’s all over the place man. If you live southwest of a Concordia-to-Salina-to-Newton-to-Wichita-to-Winfield line (basically I-135), there has been a tremendously sharp cutoff in the rainfall patterns since June 22nd.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Whiffed again.

John
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John

At least it is raining in central KS because they needed it just as much as others. Maybe next time it will be northern MO and the metros turn to see some rain.

Roger
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Roger

Salina is the big winner at 3.26 inches in the last 24 hours (as of 8 am). However, in the core of the recent 45+ day dryness….

Pratt: 0.04″
Dodge City: 0.11″
Medicine Lodge: 0.19″
Hays: 0.28″
Great Bend: 0.36″
Garden City: 0.47″
Hutchinson: 0.48″
Russell: 0.64″

In fact, these are the heaviest rains that almost all of these places have seen since June 22nd. It’s a start, but we need more!

David McGuire
Guest
David McGuire

1.6″ yesterday in McLouth. Today, maybe

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

Paging Big Papa Poof, please come claim your prize of countless internet upvotes. Crazy how the models have been so useless recently. Even though this didn’t poof altogether, when models show 2-5 inches of rain from a storm in our region and it doesn’t even really rain, that is a colossal poof. Kind of fascinating to think it’s almost 2020 and neither models or humans can give an accurate forecast 24 hours out at times. These summer systems have everyone scratching their heads.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Even 12 hours out, and forecasters get it wrong. The two things that are hardest to predict for Mets are winter storms and summer disturbances. The former because one little wobble from the system totally changes the outlook, along with temperature influences, and summer disturbances are almost always influenced by something that happens the day before, or even earlier that same day.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Groundhog Day! Same old same old.