Thunderstorms Are Moving Towards KC

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Good morning bloggers,

This picture was taken by Trent Turner in Lawrence, KS around 7 AM:

This will be a quick blog as we track these thunderstorms this morning. When I was on the air last night we were tracking these thunderstorms:

These thunderstorms were just beginning to organized into a complex of thunderstorms.  If they form into an  MCS (Mesoscale Convective System), then there is a better chance it will hold together as it approaches.

I timed it out to arrive from early to mid-morning on Wednesday.  Let’s see where this goes.

6:15 AM Update:

Here is the 6:15 AM Radar above, and the 7 AM Radar below:

The thunderstorms were moving into the KC metro area between 7 and 8 AM. There is a northeast cut-off, but this one seems to be heading right into the city.  I will post the 8 AM radar below:

Well, we got one! Finally!  This may have broken the ice, as there are a few more good chances beginning with later tonight:

Now, before you panic up north, there are other chances after Thursday’s that target northern Missouri.  Right now, I am going to concentrate on tonight’s into Thursday’s set up.  It will be 100° this afternoon over parts of northwest Kansas.  The potential for another 10″ rainfall is moderate to high once again just west of the state line.  Kansas City may be in the 1 to 3 inch zone, or this could shift around a bit.   I will discuss on 41 Action News tonight!

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the blog and sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

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GaryJim FaccianoJohnBig jAdam Recent comment authors
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Jim Facciano
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Jim Facciano

Hey Gary, we’re in “Big Sky” Montana near Livingston. I’ve been taking some pretty cool pictures of a storm that’s been following us east. I’d be happy to email some, but am not sure how?
Anyway, if you’d like, let me know…

Adam
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Adam

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/realimpactofweatherwithdrjoelnmyers/throwing-cold-water-on-extreme-heat-hype/70008963 it’s good to see a weather outlet post fact based data and not stay quiet when these click bait headlines are sent out.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

.12” just north of Liberty from this morning’s rain. Certainly much less than those to my west and southwest. Very frustrating to look at the radar during these events. Glad others received some rain. Yards are showing more brown in my area. Looks like tomorrow’s rain will miss me again. Guess I will watch something less painful than radar like repeats of Cop Rock!

Ted in STJOE
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Ted in STJOE

Does not seem to want to rain up here 20 miles east and west….

Kurt
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Kurt

Would you have thought in a wet LRC we’d go behind normal on YTD precipitation? Who knows what the new LRC will be like, I’ve never seen so many rain chances avoid us. Again because I don’t have and will never have flood concerns I’d trade weather with anyone suffering from too much rain. I’d love to be able to take a break from watering the 60 containers every other day, and not to have to keep sprinklers on the yard. Also can’t believe the increasing number of dead/dying trees from several years of stressful conditions. I’m going to continue… Read more »

KS Jones
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KS Jones

It looks like the NWS in Topeka is sticking to their forecast issued at 4 PM.
comment image?2cd84d279066a45d24520896cc1fd921
The “weather track radar” shown above was off by several miles.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=eax&product=NTP&loop=no

Johnny
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Johnny

No more rain?

Andrew H
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Andrew H

The morning thunder stole the thunder from this evenings thunder !
Sleep in peace and quiet everyone ! 😁

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Poof!!!

Inspector
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Inspector

Ahhh the “nowcast”…..

Big j
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Big j

Hey hey hey , KCI gonna stay dry!
(According to 4pm forecast)
😍!!!

Psychotic Aardvark
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Psychotic Aardvark

Could the storms forming now effect overnight storms? The HRRR doesn’t show anything forming for awhile.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Rapidly destabilizing along the remnant outflow boundary left by MCS. About to start popping off with Ernest out there and may try to slide into Metro and points West and SW.

Brittany
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Brittany

Marshall MO getting super frustrated. Drops is all we’ve had in about 2 weeks 😭😭😭

KS Jones
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KS Jones

This zone 25 miles north of Manhattan got 2.1” of rain since 5:15 AM this morning, and the NWS in Topeka shows we could get an additional 2” of rain tonight. We’ve had 7.8” of rain since (& including) July 4th, and our ytd rainfall stands at 33.39”.
https://www.weather.gov/media/top/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf

Nimbus
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Nimbus

Gary, when does the jet stream strengthen enough and start moving south again to become a real factor in our weather. How does your recurring model account for that if your premise is the same patters continues to cycle throughout the year. Same for the influences from an El Nino or La Nina? Curious

Backwoods4ever
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Backwoods4ever

1.6″ in Tightwad. Watered garden last night so its really watered now. Nice and cool now. Time to go fishing!

Dan
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Dan

Gary– when is this pattern going to end? I live in SW Lawrence and the only thing that prevented last week’s training storms from being a real calamity is that we had dry soil and the first two+ inches soaked in. After only a four day break plus .75 inches this morning we here are extremely concerned that the same exact thing may happen tonight–exactly one week later. Why is there such a sharp cutoff with these storms lately? And why are they targeting the same narrow area as last week? Is the high pressure system showing any signs of… Read more »

Nick
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Nick

KSTJ with a grand total of .09 inch.

Kurt
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Kurt

One of us is bad luck for weather in St. Joseph. How come our city/county always finds a way to avoid the rains? I know it’s just perception, but often times it appears that they form to the north, fall apart and reform to the south and east. This morning it was a near miss with it sliding southwest and off to the south. Will we get to see an lrc or active pattern that actually favors us here?

Nick
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Nick

Eventhough its not perfect, if you look at the water.weather.gov site and click on the 30 day totals you can see the accumulated precip depression compared to other areas around us, there are other spots like ours, but we seem to have been in it more often than not over the past three years, and if you look at the water year to date there is even one pixel of lower precip almost right over kstj, 😆. I really don’t know how to explain it other than bad luck, but maybe there is something else going on?

Roger
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Roger

Any coal plants, wind farms, or air force bases nearby?

Kurt
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Kurt

Iatan is a coal plant in Weston about 15 miles south southwest of St. Joseph, we have Rosecrans home to the 139th airlift wing and we have a large wind farm one county east of us. Hard to fathom any of those play a role in influencing rainfall patterns. Also odd to see how the ling solidified farther east once it pass I-70

Roger
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Roger

SW Reno County (KS) has only seen 0.25-0.50 inches from June 23 – August 6. Corn crops are burning up, despite the relative lack of heat.

Roger
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Roger

Numbers don’t lie. These rains are fickle. 5 inch deficits and growing.

Craig
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Craig
A1hoops
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A1hoops

looks like Lawrence could get pounded again tonight

Big j
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Big j

Beautiful rain this am with lots of thunder and lightning between Platte City and Smithville. Ended up with .12”. Hopefully no more tonight. A very nice dust settler indeed.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Yikes, that 10″ bullseye is over my farm!
Good thing the NAM has been useless lately, I’d roll with GFS over that right now personally.
Got a solid cell earlier and still raining, probably between 3/4″ – 1″ so far

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Gary
Thanks for adding to the blog writeup
( Not sure everyone will notice it )
Hope Ottawa doesn’t get flooded again tonight !!

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

It got intense in Parkville!

Frankie
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Frankie

Looks like things are clearing up in St. Joe, good for Chiefs camp

Kurt
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Kurt

Clearing skies on north side of St. Joseph. We may have managed a quick quarter inch in some locations, I think I eeked about .15 to add to my paltry totals since June 24th, I think we average around 7 inches between June 24th and today and most locations in Buchanan county over to the Rosecrans (NWS reporting station) have only recorded aournd 1.2 to 1.8 in that time period. At least we haven’t been blazing hot that entire time, but man the leaves are dropping from trees like crazy. Lots of yellow and brown leaves already up this way.… Read more »

C.C
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C.C

You do know it’s better to water in the evening right.

Kurt
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Kurt

Thanks, I usually water in the evening, but won’t hurt to water this afternoon. Would be nice to get mother nature to contribute from the sky though.

Kurt
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Kurt

As long as it’s dry I water when I have time, put off watering last night and will try to fit this in today before my evening plans. Unless mother nature is less stingy with this next round but won’t count on it yet.

Roger
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Roger

Most people scoff at you Kurt. Meanwhile, I feel your pain.

Kurt
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Kurt

I don’t know why, I am not complaining actually I am complaining it’s not fair to be missed so much over the last few years. If it ever turns around and those that get hit get missed and I get to be in the hot spot, it will be hard to feel sympathy for those that are critics now.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Screw the LRC. You want to know why it’s raining today? Because I watered my garden last night in case it didn’t.

Three7s
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Three7s

All in on the SMWG theory!

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

heh heh

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

But at least you got your lawn done.

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

Will the remaining cells up by Geneva, Nebraska hold together for another round of heavier rain later this morning? Maybe for the more western communities, although it is pushing east currently.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Began getting heavy rain here (25 miles north of Manhattan) at 5:15 AM, and we are still getting light rain at 8:15 AM, with 1.7” in the gauge so far.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=eax&product=NTP&loop=yes

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

After more than 4 hours of rain and 1.85” in the gauge, we are now catching a break before round two hits.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=uex&product=N0R&loop=yes

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

We got missed again! Looks like you guys in the city are getting a good drink! Happy Hump Day Bloggers!
Michael

Roger
Guest
Roger

Join the crowd. We will be pushing 110 heat index today!

Andrew H
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Andrew H

On sports 810 “Heat wave around August 20”
How long will it last Gary.

Troy
Guest
Troy

For those frustrated getting missed by rain. I feel ya. Last night I got woke up by lightning and severe thunderstorm winds. Gusts up to 60 and it blew for nearly 2 hrs. Not a drop of rain as the storms just missed a few miles to the NE. You would think if you were going to be woke up that early and have to pick up what got blown around at least it could rain.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

I see the heaviest part of that storm skipped by east of you. We got the wind and lightning here too, but nothing serious.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=uex&product=NTP&loop=no

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Had just a light rain to wet the streets, but already drying out. Not even enough to register anything in the rain gauge. And so the dryness continues. Looks like more watering of the plants is going to be needed. The frustration continues.

Roger
Guest
Roger

I agree totally!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Lots of wind but not much rain in Prairie Village

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Yay rain.

Glad I decided to mow my backyard last night instead of waiting.

Skylar
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Skylar

Beautiful shelf cloud moving over Lawrence right now. By far the nicest I’ve seen in a long time.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Looks like the first good rain in a while! We need it!

JoeK
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JoeK

f00dl3 It’s funny because the 18z HRRR is doing the same thing the HRRR did with the last storm, and the 18z NAM 3KM is doing the same thing it did with the last storm. Tomorrow morning looks like it’s going to be the exact same track situation for the precipitation if I read things right. Up until and even after the storms started forming, the HRRR showed Kansas City getting the rainfall. But last week the NAM 3KM corrected it’s self and put the storms out west. This same thing is happening now. 0 Reply15 hours ago Gary Author… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Yup. I didn’t read that one right. 🙂 I’m glad I didn’t.

SnowGoPewPew
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SnowGoPewPew

Looks like it did hold together, and reached the MCS scale it needed to do so. Now it looks like the rain is strengthening as it moves into the city. We finally are getting a good shot at rain!

Kurt
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Kurt

The eastern edge is weakening, appears this is going to far west and will again miss St Joseph, so frustrating!

Roger
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Roger

Don’t fret too much. It will miss my area too. The focus seems to be narrow again.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Not going to be even close to KC metro. These things always curve to the right, rotation around the high pressure area dictates that. It may be a subtle curvature but over hundreds of miles it is significant.

Bill
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Bill

It is pouring…

Three7s
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Three7s

This comment held up well……

Drew
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Drew

Tell that to the pouring rain here in Independence!

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Well, that’s the way it looked at 4 am. But I am very happy to be wrong!

Dan M.
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Dan M.

Just enjoy the rain you did receive. Something is better then nothing.

Roger
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Roger

Nothing for me.

Fred Nolan
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Fred Nolan

First