Good late afternoon bloggers, here is an update at 4 PM:
Thunderstorms just formed on a line south of KC, so here we go again, right? We got missed. And, thunderstorms also just formed near Bismarck, ND. The new NAM did not model this development well at all, and this may be a good sign for tomorrow mornings complex. Let’s monitor this area closely.
Previous entry below:
Good morning bloggers,
The last time the rain chances increased was last week, and we ended up being quite frustrated. A significant flooding event unfolded just two counties away, and yet we wanted rain on our own backyard. The struggle for rain is real in many areas around KC. The frustrations amongst the weather enthusiasts is growing. The remedy – rain! Just rain, and we will be happy. But, we can’t make it rain, can we?
The sky this morning was just gorgeous with mostly higher cloud types. In this picture above you can see a few things. Sunny The Weather Dog teaches Coco how to pose, while I took this picture in front of the J.C. Nichols Fountain on the Country Club Plaza. There are two main cloud types visible here. there were higher level cirrus clouds, and just below that, the ones with the little “rows” of clouds, are altocumulus clouds. Even that middle cloud layer was fairly high around 13,000 feet up. The cirrus clouds were around 20,000 feet above us.
I am expecting a good chance of thunderstorms in our area as early as tomorrow. I just glanced at the HRRR model from the 06z (1 AM) model run. The position of these thunderstorms would be in a prime spot to break the ice and bring KC some rain on Wednesday morning. Will they actually be located right there, over northwestern Missouri? That is the question.
Depending on what model you look at, the amount of rain varies from 1/2″ to 6″ over the next seven days:
This model above shows the latest GFS model with KC on the edge, with the minimum over northwest Missouri. This model did not have what the HRRR model had in the next 24 hours. We are in northwest flow aloft, and there will be a few good chances for rain in the next week. Let’s see how each one sets up.
Have a great day, and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.