The Struggle For Rain Is Real

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good late afternoon bloggers, here is an update at 4 PM:

Thunderstorms just formed on a line south of KC, so here we go again, right?  We got missed.  And, thunderstorms also just formed near Bismarck, ND.  The new NAM did not model this development well at all, and this may be a good sign for tomorrow mornings complex.  Let’s monitor this area closely.

Previous entry below:

Good morning bloggers,

The last time the rain chances increased was last week, and we ended up being quite frustrated.  A significant flooding event unfolded just two counties away, and yet we wanted rain on our own backyard.  The struggle for rain is real in many areas around KC.  The frustrations amongst the weather enthusiasts is growing. The remedy – rain!  Just rain, and we will be happy.  But, we can’t make it rain, can we?

The sky this morning was just gorgeous with mostly higher cloud types.  In this picture above you can see a few things.  Sunny The Weather Dog teaches Coco how to pose, while I took this picture in front of the J.C. Nichols Fountain on the Country Club Plaza.  There are two main cloud types visible here.  there were higher level cirrus clouds, and just below that, the ones with the little “rows” of clouds, are altocumulus clouds.  Even that middle cloud layer was fairly high around 13,000 feet up. The cirrus clouds were around 20,000 feet above us.

I am expecting a good chance of thunderstorms in our area as early as tomorrow.  I just glanced at the HRRR model from the 06z (1 AM) model run. The position of these thunderstorms would be in a prime spot to break the ice and bring KC some rain on Wednesday morning.  Will they actually be located right there, over northwestern Missouri? That is the question.

Depending on what model you look at, the amount of rain varies from 1/2″ to 6″ over the next seven days:

This model above shows the latest GFS model with KC on the edge, with the minimum over northwest Missouri. This model did not have what the HRRR model had in the next 24 hours.  We are in northwest flow aloft, and there will be a few good chances for rain in the next week. Let’s see how each one sets up.

Have a great day, and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

40
Leave a Reply

avatar
16 Comment threads
24 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
22 Comment authors
JeffKurtGaryHockeynut69REAL HUMEDUDE Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Jeff
Guest
Jeff

Hasn’t been wet this year up here near St Joseph, we’re below normal year to date. Why does it appear we’re in a rain shadow up here every year?

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Since June 1st (meteorological Summer), KCI has received 10.15” of rain. The normal for this period is 10.40”. We are more than 2/3 through meteorological summer and this was supposed to be a”wet summer”. My question is if the LRC repeats as stated, then why can’t we even reach normal? This is the part that I struggle with. Yes this is close to normal, but in my opinion it should be producing above normal. I know a few counties to our west had a deluge for a few days of storms, but that just doesn’t seem to fit? I keep… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

NAM SUCKS LATELY
LIKE, HORRIBLE!

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

So hot today. EOI Is a -10

Roger
Guest
Roger

Heat advisory for a good part of south-central and southwest Kansas for tomorrow.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

It’s funny because the 18z HRRR is doing the same thing the HRRR did with the last storm, and the 18z NAM 3KM is doing the same thing it did with the last storm. Tomorrow morning looks like it’s going to be the exact same track situation for the precipitation if I read things right. Up until and even after the storms started forming, the HRRR showed Kansas City getting the rainfall. But last week the NAM 3KM corrected it’s self and put the storms out west. This same thing is happening now.

Mel
Guest
Mel

First time poster, long time lurker….curious why do posts that point out inaccuracies removed? Not trying to stir the pot, but if this is a discussion board, shouldn’t all comments be allowed, even if they don’t agree? This is Somewhat what our president does…if he doesn’t like it or agree with it he totally sidesteps or ignores it. Again not trying to stir the pot but this confuses me?

John
Guest
John

I do not understand how some people think last week’s forecast was completely wrong? On Tuesday in the blog Gary posted a model forecast for rain for last week, this was one model forecast. Then in the blog that morning he stated that there would be a line of training thunderstorms that would form late Tuesday night and last through the morning on Wednesday. There was no way of knowing where the line of storms would setup, but he said that somewhere within 50 miles of the KS and MO state line there would be significant flooding and more than… Read more »

Larry
Guest
Larry

Latest model runs & QPF data targeting Lawrence again with 4″-8″ of rain in next 5 days. Last week’s event over 3 days at my house in NW Lawrence was 10.88″. Next door neighbors have water restoration crew over today (now) as they had 5″ in finished basement. Soil is still very wet and can’t handle what is currently forecast for tonight through Friday. I would love to send the rain a couple counties to the east. I don’t understand why our small area is going to get pounded again and what causes the atmosphere to target the same area… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I just hope this isn’t signs of what’s to come next year. 2011 really sticks in my mind right now as a parallel to what is happening right now, though we are running about a month ahead of schedule. While the LRC of 2010/11 really held influence and we had numerous storms and signature storms – one of our snowiest winters and don’t forget the Christmas Blizzard – by the time August rolled around we were starting to go into drought. The pattern had changed subtly enough for the anticyclone to influence our weather. Sound familiar? That fall, the anticyclone… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Doesn’t sound anything like this year. Drought….really? We are still in like top 5 wettest years, and because we barely missed a couple different 8-10″ rains by a county in either direction now we are teetering on a drought!?!? Come on, the area isnt even close to a drought pattern. Droughts are result of constant presence of anticyclone, we have just been on its fringes lately. OKC has reason to worry, they have had next to no rain for going on 2 months. We will probably get 2-4″ of rain in next 4 days and put all that D word… Read more »

Roger
Guest
Roger

Central Kansas is abnormally dry. If we go another 3 weeks with very dry weather, we will be in the next category. My personal analysis, I only give my area of dryness a 30% chance of seeing any more than 0.50-0.75″ of rain in the next 10-14 days.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Just slightly below normal here, no drought but no blockbuster rainy pattern either

Nate
Guest
Nate

Watching some ol’ boy on another channel, he flat out said “Well were were wrong on last weeks rain and probably won’t get this right either”. That was refreshing, don’t hear it much

Observer
Guest
Observer

Gary – in past cycles this year you have taken the time to line up maps of the bomb cyclone from winter. You showed us how a similar feature was there even last fall the first 2 times through the cycle. Then in mid-March, late April, and again in June, there it was. It should be very apparent this week. And yet nothing in the way the “storms” are setting up for Wednesday or Thursday morning looks reminiscent of that feature. Where did it go this cycle? In recent years you have said that other cycles (e.g., Artic Oscillation) interact… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Maybe these outside influences are causing the pattern to change subtly.

Bigblt
Guest
Bigblt

That does seem to make sense. However, (like most on here I am no professional, just a lover of the weather, so this could be completely wrong) I have begun reading the paper Gary and a team published a while back providing analytical measurements of the LRC. It seemed to me that the LRC is a measurement in itself. Unlike the El Niño, AO, etc. ,which can be directly pointed to and measured, the LRC is a culmination of the these factors, similar to a person’s metabolism. Metabolism is based on a multitude of factors like bf percentage, sex, bone… Read more »

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Rain has been a struggle in Boone County as well. In the past 14 days I’ve only picked up just under 3/10 of an inch of rain. Lawns are turning brown. Really hoping for at least a good inch or two of rain we need it.

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Models ?? Gary I think it was last week you put out a video blog. You said “the models are all wrong.”
So why are you even showing them now. I know that you know when they are right, and when they are wrong. Are they right for this week or not ?
Just frustrating. July was dry for metro. And now the first half of August appears will be dry also if we don’t get rain this week.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Models are great in some setups, others not so much. Either way, they are about all we have to estimate the coming weather systems. NAM and even HRRR were poor last week but could be spot on with this much different setup, who knows!?!

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

It is fact that he said the rain would setup near KC. He also said that it could shift in either to the West or East. It did shift to the West more due to the High Pressure located over the Great Lakes region which stopped the rain from sliding more to the KS/MO state lines where they had anticipated it to. It is frustrating, but the models always say one thing and mother nature does another. That is why predicting the weather is just that, predicting.

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

Gary and team do own when they are wrong. I can’t see it through your eyes, but from what I have viewed and read, they own it when they are wrong. I can’t change your mind, but I don’t think I’m alone in that judgement.

John
Guest
John

I think just because there wasn’t 2-5″ of rain in everyone’s yard last week that the forecast was wrong. First part of the forecast was that a band of very heavy rainfall would setup within 50 miles of the state line of KS and MO. The second part was that 5″ of rain was likely in the band of thunderstorms that would form. This also happened as there were reports of 10″+ of rain two counties to the West and SW of the city. The third part was that there would be a sharp gradient, just like in snowstorms, where… Read more »

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

Models are a tool to help make an educated guess on what the weather can do. The models are not painting where it will go exactly, it can change very rapidly. So I don’t know why so much weight is placed on models. Gary and team do their best to provide you with an accurate forecast, just because it doesn’t pan out, doesn’t mean it was wrong. Weather cannot be controlled, the best they can do is use their professional skills and tools to help estimate what the weather will do.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Starting tomorrow, the average high temperature in KC starts declining. Today’s average high is 89. Tomorrow’s is 88. The slide into fall has begun. https://www.weather.gov/eax/kcrecnorm-aug

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Average last day for 90 degrees in KC is Sept 9. (Per the NWS)

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I’m debating whether I should mow my backyard today or if I can hold it off until tomorrow (which I would prefer).

J-ox
Guest
J-ox

If the sun is shining, you should make some hay.

WEATHERBY TOM
Guest
WEATHERBY TOM

Don’t mow today, then it will rain for sure!

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Skip it and wait for rain. This wimpy fescue hates heat and it hates dryness and absolutely die, not go dormant, die

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

I think you are confused, Fescue is more heat tolerant than say blue grass.