Good morning bloggers,
KCUR radio station invited me on as a guest to discuss the cold and snowy winter, what was causing it, and in that discussion I made this accurate summer prediction. Here is the article: The pattern will continue right on into the summer
The LRC is the centerpiece of the cycling weather pattern puzzle. The weather pattern is cycling, and this pattern set up last fall in early October and is still in full force today. The forecasts in the past few years have shown tremendous accuracy in the seasonal forecasts; the winter forecast was spot on with the prediction of 26″ of snow, the spring forecast was spot in with the prediction of nearly 20 inches of rain in May and June, and the summer forecast has been spot on. If you remember, the winter forecast was described in this creative recap, “Never again will she doubt the wisdom of this weather guru”: https://www.kansascity.com/news/business/personal-finance/article226966869.html
The more specific forecasts down to a series of dates, even down to a specific date have also increasingly been more and more accurate in the past few years. Weather2020 predicted Major Hurricanes Harvey, Michael, Maria, and Florence, the highly advertised Tropical Storm Gordon, Alberto, and the track of Irma. The specific forecast for the Super Bowl outdoors in East Rutherford, NJ was the only accurate prediction for that day in 2014, and this year the prediction of the snowstorm for the Chiefs – Colts game at Arrowhead was made weeks ahead of time for that specific date.
Predicting the summer weather down to the specifics is being shown to be a bit trickier. Suddenly, we seem to be getting missed, even though there have been some significant rainfall events all around us. This pattern, from the beginning, has been quite challenging to forecast. Remember, even six days before the Indianapolis/KC game at Arrowhead stadium on January 12th, the models showed sunny and 50 degrees, and only our weather prediction was accurate that far out, as we made the forecast for the snow that day weeks before, not just six days before. Everyone else caught on five and four days before, only because the models started to come in line with the LRC, as they always eventually do.
Jeff Penner made these two graphics, above, on 41 Action News this morning. Some models have 3 to 6 inches of rain, while others show the KC metro area barely getting 1/2″. The rainfall patterns during the summer get influenced by weaker features. Once it hit July, the rain has been a bit more spotty. And, yet everything is still green? Why, because it has been a cooler summer as predicted, and we have had adequate moisture. Now, will it rain this week?
We will be testing this once again this week. The models are doing their best at keeping the rain away from KC, and yet 3 to 6 inch amounts are being modeled all around KC once again. So, as Jeff described yesterday, there are many frustrations. We have not made the best day to day predictions recently as the thunderstorms have not been wide spread. last week we thought we would have wide spread 2 to 5 inch amounts with locally 10 inches of rain. And, the locally 10 inches of rain did fall. The wide spread 2-5 inch rains did not happen as expected.
Let’s see what happens this week. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Let’s keep politics out of the weather blog, and discuss facts and back up your statements with facts. Have a great day.