Summer Accurately Predicted Five Months Ago Using The LRC

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good morning bloggers,

KCUR radio station invited me on as a guest to discuss the cold and snowy winter, what was causing it, and in that discussion I made this accurate summer prediction.  Here is the article: The pattern will continue right on into the summer

The LRC is the centerpiece of the cycling weather pattern puzzle.  The weather pattern is cycling, and this pattern set up last fall in early October and is still in full force today.  The forecasts in the past few years have shown tremendous accuracy in the seasonal forecasts; the winter forecast was spot on with the prediction of 26″ of snow, the spring forecast was spot in with the prediction of nearly 20 inches of rain in May and June, and the summer forecast has been spot on.  If you remember, the winter forecast was described in this creative recap, “Never again will she doubt the wisdom of this weather guru”: https://www.kansascity.com/news/business/personal-finance/article226966869.html

The more specific forecasts down to a series of dates, even down to a specific date have also increasingly been more and more accurate in the past few years.  Weather2020 predicted Major Hurricanes Harvey, Michael, Maria, and Florence, the highly advertised Tropical Storm Gordon, Alberto, and the track of Irma.  The specific forecast for the Super Bowl outdoors in East Rutherford, NJ was the only accurate prediction for that day in 2014, and this year the prediction of the snowstorm for the Chiefs – Colts game at Arrowhead was made weeks ahead of time for that specific date.

Predicting the summer weather down to the specifics is being shown to be a bit trickier.  Suddenly, we seem to be getting missed, even though there have been some significant rainfall events all around us.  This pattern, from the beginning, has been quite challenging to forecast.  Remember, even six days before the Indianapolis/KC game at Arrowhead stadium on January 12th, the models showed sunny and 50 degrees, and only our weather prediction was accurate that far out, as we made the forecast for the snow that day weeks before, not just six days before. Everyone else caught on five and four days before, only because the models started to come in line with the LRC, as they always eventually do.

Jeff Penner made these two graphics, above, on 41 Action News this morning.  Some models have 3 to 6 inches of rain, while others show the KC metro area barely getting 1/2″.  The rainfall patterns during the summer get influenced by weaker features.  Once it hit July, the rain has been a bit more spotty.  And, yet everything is still green? Why, because it has been a cooler summer as predicted, and we have had adequate moisture.  Now, will it rain this week?

We will be testing this once again this week.  The models are doing their best at keeping the rain away from KC, and yet 3 to 6 inch amounts are being modeled all around KC once again. So, as Jeff described yesterday, there are many frustrations.  We have not made the best day to day predictions recently as the thunderstorms have not been wide spread.  last week we thought we would have wide spread 2 to 5 inch amounts with locally 10 inches of rain.  And, the locally 10 inches of rain did fall. The wide spread 2-5 inch rains did not happen as expected.

Let’s see what happens this week. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Let’s keep politics out of the weather blog, and discuss facts and back up your statements with facts.  Have a great day.

Gary

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

13
Leave a Reply

avatar
9 Comment threads
4 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
10 Comment authors
f00dl3JohnnyRogerMr. PeteBig j Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Gary, can you show me where we predicted all of July and the first half of August to be extremely dry in the LRC? All I remember was the forecast for above average rainfall to continue all summer.

Today’s rain missed us, and NAM 3KM skirts us WED/THU. If we are still dry THU afternoon in the KC area, our next good rain chance isn’t probably until next week.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

EOI is a fail these days – I am noticing lots of mosquitos.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Way to muggy to be a good EOI

Roger
Guest
Roger

July 17, 2009 – Climate Change

David Wallace-Wells
Author of: The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming
Published: February 2019

https://drhyman.com/blog/2019/07/17/ep-63/

Big j
Guest
Big j

I can live with .8 around KCI, but I would prefer .0.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

It seems like it’s gonna rain.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

How many times have QPF outlooks since July 1st shown widespread 2-8″ rainfall and how many times have we actually got widespread 2-8″ rainfalls?

HRRR shows TUE AM rain breaking up before it gets here. THU AM looks to be best shot.

Larry
Guest
Larry

Latest QPF outlooks from NWS show 4”-7” for eastern Kansas, KC metro and points east over next 7 days. We don’t need another 5+” in NW Lawrence.

Nick
Guest
Nick

I think up here in St. Joe for me is that we seem to be the weaker spot compared to the areas immediately around us( even in May and June, which were wet, most of it was from getting the lower end scraps of cells that would just scrape us with the exception of the June 21,22nd event) and now in July and August so far it has intensified, even dropping us to below avg. YTD( barely) and the two years before last we were on the outside looking in, and then late last summer and fall it seemed we… Read more »

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Yeah, why is mother nature and every LRC picking on St. Joseph? We want some rain too!

Roger
Guest
Roger

5 inches below normal in parts of northern Missouri, central Kansas, and eastern Iowa. Last month and a half I should say.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I’m at 17″ ABOVE Avg. in Vernon Co. As dry as you are, others are still super wet. I am somewhere in between, got 1.3″ last week but could use more. The creek is just trickling now but still running so that’s not bad for August in these parts.