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Good Sunday bloggers,

The last few days a narrow zone of very heavy rain set up 20 miles west of Kansas City. I understand the frustration as I have a yard that needs rain and missed 2-3″ of rain by 15 miles. I can also understand locations that received 10″ of rain and all of the problems that caused. The weather pattern the next 7 days, starting on Tuesday, will feature a similar but different flow, which expands the threat of thunderstorms over a wider area. That being said, there is still no guarantee the drier areas will see nice rain and the drenched areas will see less rain.

The upper level high, “heat wave creating machine,” will still be located over the southwest USA, so we all will not have to deal with any high heat for awhile. The flow aloft will be from the northwest, originating in Alaska. There will be several rain and thunderstorm producing disturbances and fronts tracking southeast and they will affect areas every 1-2 days.

Temperatures will be “cool for August” to our northeast as the high heat stays suppressed from the southern Plains to southwest USA. This is a similar temperature set up to last week.

The main difference between this week and last week is that the locations that have chances of thunderstorms will be in a much wider area, so it will not be so “all or none.” You can see the rainfall that occurred since last Wednesday compared with our rainfall outlook for the next 7 days.

TODAY: There will be no rain today as we see some great pool weather. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with moderate levels of humidity. Monday will be dry as well with highs near 90° after lows around 70°. Thunderstorms will be forming along I-80 Monday afternoon and night.

The days with the best chance of rain are Tuesday and Thursday. The chance on Tuesday is trending to a scattered event. So, once again, some will see around 1″ of rain while others will not see a drop. These will be the thunderstorms that form near I-80 Monday afternoon and night.

If we are going to have a widespread event it will be Wednesday night into Thursday. We will see how it evolves as we get closer to it.

As of this moment, the data shows the heaviest rain south and well north of I-70. This is far from set in stone. You can also see outside the heavy areas, there is rainfall. So, it is not an all or none rainfall set up.

Here is a summary of the weather situation the next 7 days.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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Emaw
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Emaw

.10 – 4.0″ in the next 7 days is almost a slam dunk forecast! Come on guys, this is what draws the criticism. I check your forecasts because they’re generally pretty good but the broad precipitation forecasts and chest thumpiing about accuracy gets to be a bit much. Nothing personal just an observation. I will take cover now . . .

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Exactly Emaw, if we were talking snow that is a range of 1.2”- 4ft of snow. I could throw that out there and be right with every snow or rain. But it’s one way to say you were spot on.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

“In the next 7 days.”
Not all at once, or in 1-2 hrs.
No big deal. Easily could be .10 – 4.0″ in one week, even if it’s less than 1″ every day.
What’s there to complain about in that forecast.

Kurt
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Kurt

Wish I could find those stats for Missouri, I think KCI is around 34 inches and St Joseph is at 22 inches and 12 inch difference in 35 miles

We’re running about bewteen 5 and 6 inch defecits up here in the last ~40 days

Roger
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Roger

Winfield, KS (far southern Kansas near Kansas turnpike) has seen 47.12 inches this year. Partridge, KS, only 20.27 inches. So, a 27″ difference in less than 80 miles (NW to SE). That’s not normal folks!!!

Kurt
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Kurt

And there are some bloggers that enjoy downvoting because I want it to rain, I will always take too much rain over lack of rain. I’m blessed not to have flooding issues where I live and if roads ever got cut off here we’d literally need arks.

Just disappointed not to be in the “right” spot yet again

Roger
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Roger

I keep saying this. There are a growing number of locations that have dried out significantly (3-5 inches below normal the last 40-45 days).

Bob
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Bob

I think that you live in an area where you are safe when it rains too much. I get that. I imagine some of the downvotes come from those of us who can’t handle it and were negatively effected by the floods.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

The bloggers get mean when they don’t get their rain!!!

KS Jones
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KS Jones

🎶Baby, the rain must fall, Baby, the wind must blow🎶

Jordan
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Jordan

Yesterday (in regards to Tuesday’s rain chances): “…the heaviest still wants to be on the Kansas side, but this time all locations should see some rain as opposed to a sharp cut off.”

Today: “The chance on Tuesday is trending to a scattered event. So, once again, some will see around 1″ of rain while others will not see a drop.”

I’m confused.

Kurt
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Kurt

That rainfall map appears that areas that have seen plentiful rains recently might be the same areas favored again this week. Just seems like the areas that are missed will get missed again.

I’d prefer several inches of well timed rain this week. Still very dry especially under the trees and dense undergrowth. Would be thrilled to be able to take a break from watering.

Also hopeful the new lrc puts St Joseph is a sweet spot for beneficial rains.