Good Sunday bloggers,
The last few days a narrow zone of very heavy rain set up 20 miles west of Kansas City. I understand the frustration as I have a yard that needs rain and missed 2-3″ of rain by 15 miles. I can also understand locations that received 10″ of rain and all of the problems that caused. The weather pattern the next 7 days, starting on Tuesday, will feature a similar but different flow, which expands the threat of thunderstorms over a wider area. That being said, there is still no guarantee the drier areas will see nice rain and the drenched areas will see less rain.
The upper level high, “heat wave creating machine,” will still be located over the southwest USA, so we all will not have to deal with any high heat for awhile. The flow aloft will be from the northwest, originating in Alaska. There will be several rain and thunderstorm producing disturbances and fronts tracking southeast and they will affect areas every 1-2 days.
Temperatures will be “cool for August” to our northeast as the high heat stays suppressed from the southern Plains to southwest USA. This is a similar temperature set up to last week.
The main difference between this week and last week is that the locations that have chances of thunderstorms will be in a much wider area, so it will not be so “all or none.” You can see the rainfall that occurred since last Wednesday compared with our rainfall outlook for the next 7 days.
TODAY: There will be no rain today as we see some great pool weather. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with moderate levels of humidity. Monday will be dry as well with highs near 90° after lows around 70°. Thunderstorms will be forming along I-80 Monday afternoon and night.
The days with the best chance of rain are Tuesday and Thursday. The chance on Tuesday is trending to a scattered event. So, once again, some will see around 1″ of rain while others will not see a drop. These will be the thunderstorms that form near I-80 Monday afternoon and night.
If we are going to have a widespread event it will be Wednesday night into Thursday. We will see how it evolves as we get closer to it.
As of this moment, the data shows the heaviest rain south and well north of I-70. This is far from set in stone. You can also see outside the heavy areas, there is rainfall. So, it is not an all or none rainfall set up.
Here is a summary of the weather situation the next 7 days.
Have a great week.