No Major Heat and the Next Main Rain Chance

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Good Saturday bloggers,

It has been an interesting few days around here as we have been tracking extreme amounts of rain 30 miles west of KC, while KC has hardly seen any rain.

A zone of thunderstorms set up from South Dakota to Oklahoma with the state line of KS/MO being the eastern border. Countless disturbances have been tracking north-northwest to south-southeast from South Dakota to Oklahoma. Each disturbance produces rain and thunderstorms.

One of those disturbances produced a deluge 30 miles west of KC. It really is amazing how sharp the cut off was from a flood and hardly a drop. So, some yards and farms still need rain, others don’t want rain for a long time.

We are tracking three more disturbances today. One is already moved away, south of Wichita, and it’s producing an area of thunderstorms from Wichita to Oklahoma City similar to the one from the other night in eastern Kansas. There are disturbances in southeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota. These will drop south-southeast today. This means we will see periods of clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms today, again, mostly on the Kansas side.

TODAY: This is a good depiction of what to expect. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be found on the Kansas side and mostly dry under a partly to mostly cloudy sky on the Missouri side. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with a light easterly breeze. The showers and thunderstorms will dissipate and exit to the south after 5-6 PM, leading to a nice evening with temperatures in the 70s.

SUNDAY: It will be a nice summer day with highs in the 80s after lows in the 60s. A surface high pressure will be located in southeast Iowa, bringing us a light easterly breeze and moderate humidity.

MONDAY: The weather pattern next week will feature a more swift and broad northwest flow. This means the zone for thunderstorms will not be as narrow as it was the last several days. In the northwest flow, every couple of days, there will be a front and disturbance. This means every 1-3 days there will be a chance of rain and thunderstorms. The next chance is Monday night and Tuesday. You can see below that Monday will be another nice summer day with highs in the 80s. Thunderstorms will be forming and increasing along I-80 during the afternoon.

TUESDAY: The thunderstorms will track south to I-70, and you can see the heaviest still wants to be on the Kansas side, but this time all locations should see some rain as opposed to a sharp cut off. The best chance of rain is during the morning. The afternoon will see highs in the 80s with perhaps a few thunderstorms. The next chance after this will be Thursday.

So, if you still need rain, there are more chances.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

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GaryKurtGerriFred NolanKS Jones Recent comment authors
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Kurt
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Kurt

I will refrain from calling out a missed forecast as it did rain excessively in an area, but I felt misled in that a greater area would see rain at some point over 3 or 4 days, and I mean more than what was recorded. Although the original maps showed that ugly sharp cutoff. I also wish I could get better local, St Joseph forecasts. Just seems like people fixate on wettest year on record when that’s no where near what’s happening in St Joseph. However what rains we had the last week with cooler temps greened things back up… Read more »

Fred Nolan
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Fred Nolan

No matter which way you slice. This was a blown forecast. Period the end.
Gary, you f’d up. Missed it.
Own it and move on.

Gerri
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Gerri

AMEN!!

KS Jones
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KS Jones

This zone (25 miles north of Manhattan) had two rain events yesterday. The first, at 5 AM, produced 2.35” of rain; the second, at 5:30 PM, produced 0.89”, for a total of 3.24”.
We’ve had 6 rainy days and 6.59” of rain in the past 30 days, the least of which was 0.3” on July 9th.
The Euro shows we could get an additional 1.6” of rain in the next ten days.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/kansas/acc-total-precipitation/20190813-1200z.html

Roger
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Roger

Another example:

Since June 1st:
Newton, KS: 11.39″
Hutchinson, KS: 5.22″
Partridge, KS: 4.43″

June 22nd rainfall:
Newton: 2.77″
Hutchinson: 1.21″
Partridge: 1.58″

June 23rd – August 3rd (42 days):
Newton: 5.41″ Average: 5.08″
Hutchinson: 1.58″ Average: 4.88″
Partridge: 0.48″ Average: 5.26″

Rainfall deficit/surplus last 42 days:

Newton: +0.33″
Hutchinson: -3.30″
Partridge: -4.78″

My point is that Hutchinson and Partridge are 10 miles apart. Newton is 32 miles from Hutchinson. So a difference of 42 total miles can greatly affect one’s perspective of the LRC. Isn’t that crazy!

Roger
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Roger

Since April 1st:

Cheney, KS Reservoir: 26.06″
Partridge, KS: 16.59″

Since June 1st:

Cheney: 10.28″
Partridge: 4.43″

These towns are just 29 miles apart (straight line distance). That is incredible!!!!! I wonder if Kurt or anybody else in St. Joseph, MO, can attest to this too in very short distances.

Roger
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Roger

Winfield, KS

last 2 days: 8.47″
July: 2.22″
June: 9.31″
May: 17.04″
April: 5.39″
March: 2.97″
February: 0.51″
January: 1.21″

Grand total: 47.12″ !!!!!!!!

Wichita, KS, is 35.95 miles away.
Total yearly rainfall: 28.52″

Is this normal?

Roger
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Roger

It can be so oddly depressing and hopeless when you see how close the rain is on your doorstep. I literally missed the rain that struck Wichita and Newton, KS, early this morning by about 15 miles NW of where 1-2 inches of rain fell. I know I’m not in drought, but the last 40+ days has been so dry! 0.50-1.00″ since June 22nd.

Maybe OKC will get some MUCH needed rain today, since they have had even more paltry rain amounts.

Dan
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Dan

Hi guys and gals, I live in southwest Lawrence and was wanting to show someone a radar loop of the endless training storms we had come through here Wednesday night. Do any of you know of a free site that could generate a gif or something of the Topeka or KC doppler radar from, say 8pm on 7/31 through 10am of 8/1? We had rain consistently throughout that 14-hour span. I found the Plymouth State College site, but it seems like the most they will put into a GIF is about 2 hours. I guess I could generate several GIFs… Read more »

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=comprad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=48&interval=15&year=2019&month=07&day=31&hour=20&minute=00

If you switch it from “Iowa (Default)” to “Wichita, KS” under “Composite Product” and then click “Generate Loop” you can see it better.

It looks like lake-effect snow!

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Cool !

Dan
Guest
Dan

Thanks! Didn’t see a way to generate a gif directly from the site but it does allow you to change the display tool to “list images”, so I was able to grab all of those and then generate a gif myself.

Yes it was truly crazy how the storms kept regenerating over us—never seen anything like it, and hope never to see it again–that was way too much rain all at once.

Thanks again for your help.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

NWS Kansas City :
“We’ve made it through the hottest time of the year, climatologically speaking. Of course we still have more of summer to get through. On average the final 90° day of the year is not until September 9.”

Lisa Lu
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Lisa Lu

Took the pooch out at 4:45 this morning and was surprised to find a gentle rain coming down. My yard was puddled with saturation. Nice rain!

Observer
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Observer

Many of the features of the LRC can still be found during the summer months. But we should admit that the usefulness of the LRC to predict what we will experience at the surface is diminished in summer. There are obvious examples — July was predicted to be wetter than normal, to name one; but that clearly did not happen. The point is that during these summer months, there appear to be other factors which outweigh the LRC for those of us wanting to know what we will experience at ground level. The perennial Southwest anti-cyclone always governs weather in… Read more »

f00dl3
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f00dl3

This is totally uncharacteristic of the LRC as I interpret it because the way storms are riding down from the Dakotas here has not really happened at all this summer until recently. This is a byproduct of the anti-cyclone. It appears instead of being oriented from central Kansas across to Nebraska into Iowa at a NNE to SSW orientation, on of our troughs has shifted to have more a NNW to SSE orientation for the storm track. This is a major change in the weather pattern. The waves of energy on a 500 Millibar map look similar but at the… Read more »

Mike H
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Mike H

I like your analysis. Do you have a timeline of when the anticyclone took over? That dry stretch seemed to coincide from the earlier dry cycle back in April. I have to admit I have not paid to close attention of the 500 mill bar and surface charts since March, so I wouldn’t fare to guess. But no matter the year, July seems to change pattern.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

First