From 0.02″ to 11.02″, What Is Going On?

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Good morning bloggers,

It is a rather baffling question: What just happened, and continues to happen this morning?  Take a look at these two images below:

That radar image would normally be an extremely exciting start to the day for myself, a weather enthusiast since I can remember my first thoughts.  Instead, because I am a “weather centered” person, it is quite frustrating.  You see, I now live on the Plaza.  We have only had a trace of rain from these great rain chances, while just a short ten minute drive to my west has had around 0.25″, and another ten minute drive, 0.75″, and then go one half hour longer and you will drive into an area that has had nearly 11″ of rain in the past three days.  What is going on here?

High pressure is centered over southern Wisconsin this morning.  A flow of drier air has pushed to near KC with dew points dropping to 59 degrees this morning.  I was highly confident that we would be in the rainy pattern here in KC the past three days, and I expected 2 to 5 inch wide spread amounts, and this is happening just west of KC, but downtown KC has been left high and dry with just a few drops.   The cooler-drier air is not really the reason, but a result of how this pattern set up. The flow around the summer anticyclone to our west, and how it is interacting with the main jet stream way up to the north over southern Canada has created this frustrating set up.  The rain moves east and then turns south, and it is so close that it adds to the frustration.

The “Polar Vortex” part of the cycling pattern is due in next, and then there should be one big August warm up, maybe even a short heat wave, later this month before a wet September develops.  So, we will have more chances for rain. For now, watching radar is difficult if you live near or east of the state line.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: A 100% chance of rain west of an Olathe to Atchison, KS line.  A 10% chance 20 miles east of KC, and there is a 30% chance near and just east of the state line.  Highs in the 70s with a cloudy sky.
  • Saturday and Sunday:  Cloudy Saturday morning with rain shifting away. It will then be partly cloudy Saturday afternoon and then Sunny on Sunday.  Highs near 80 degrees.

Have a great day, and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

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Mr. PeteGaryGerriObserverBig j Recent comment authors
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Observer
Guest
Observer

Instead of cheering or jeering based on what you think you remember from some news broadcast days ago, it makes more sense to quote directly from what Gary wrote in the blog. Here is exactly the prediction for this week’s storm:

“There will likely be a zone within 50 miles of KC, and possibly right over the KC metro area, that ends up with close to 10″ of rain in the next three days.”

Are we sure that forecast missed?

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

No.

Jim
Guest
Jim

Tough look for the LRC this last week. Am I the only one going to say it?

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

I mean, he said there would be substantial rain within a small radius, it happened to be 40 miles or do west than he thought. The set up was still there

Gerri
Guest
Gerri

Busted….yup….it was 40 miles west and Tuesday he strongly said it would set up downtown. I get it, it’s weather and it is unpredictable, HOWEVER, when you constantly say you always get it right, you have to take the good with the bad. Unfortunately, he never says and admits when he is wrong. Even when he is wrong he is right in his eyes. This is not a personal attack at all. Would give so much more
Credit to him when he admits he messed up, even if it is not often.

Observer
Guest
Observer

Gerri – see comment above. He actually said within 50 miles of KC. I agree he doesn’t always own up to missed forecasts. But Lawrence is within 50 miles and that’s where 10 inches fell.

Trevor
Guest
Trevor

Crazy to think how 20-30 miles makes people think it was a blown forecast? SMH

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

There were several local mets who were calling for over 8 inches of rain in KC. So factor that in to the discussion.

Roger
Guest
Roger

Urbanity, here is a news story from June 27th about rejecting a wind farm in SE Reno County. It would have been built about 30 miles NW of Wichita.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article231824228.html

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

Seems like wind farms are a great alternative energy source. Odd that there is so much resistance to them. Does wind not pass through them? They are not fans or wind barriers. It’s even more crazy that climate change is somehow now a political debate. How is that issue really debatable? Denying that the earth is getting warmer is like denying that 75 is greater than 70. Somehow we all can’t agree that a lot needs to be done to prevent dramatic temperature increases and devastating weather events? Whether you are on the right or left, this is a daunting… Read more »

Bob
Guest
Bob

That direction in Kansas is gas and oil country. Alternative energies is a bad term to them.

Roger
Guest
Roger

Yep. Just listen to Guy McPherson. Peer reviewed studies show that global temperatures not only increase with industrial pollution but also they increase FASTER with only a 35% reduction in global production.

So, it could be true that continuing to burn coal (as Trump proposes) would be better in the short term until something more technological comes along (if that is even possible anymore).

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I think the part that’s up for debate is how much we are actually mattering in the whole thing. I think I read there was a recent study done that shows humans may only account for 0.01 of the 1 degree the earth has warmed since 1900, due to Cosmic Rays.

Roger
Guest
Roger

The planet has actually rose at least 1.73 degrees C above the 1750 baseline. Now the baseline is 1900 or something like that just so it can be hidden more. I used to think global warming was mostly a natural process. Now, I am seeing more conclusive research that humans are contributing to a much more exponential curve.

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/

At this point it should be pretty widely accepted that greenhouse gases are the cause. Studies like the one above are hard to refute.

I can understand some people wanting to cling to the contrarian “you can’t prove it” side but it’s no different than the early studies linking smoking with lung cancer. Some people and companies fought this idea initially as it greatly hurt them, but it doesn’t change the facts.

Roger
Guest
Roger

Excellent article! Aerosol masking effect. Sulfate particulates in the high atmosphere block incoming solar radiation. Greenhouse gases (methane, CO2, CFC’s, nitrous oxide, water vapor) trap heat in the lower atmosphere. These 2 combined forces have 2 different rates of change. You slow down global industrial production too much and the aerosols will fall to earth at a much faster rate than are put in the atmosphere. Further heating the planet. A paradox.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Claim: “During the last hundred years the temperature is increased about 0.1°C because of carbon dioxide. The human contribution was about 0.01°C.”
Read the scientific analysis of that claim (3rd from top) linked below.
https://climatefeedback.org/claim-reviews/

Big j
Guest
Big j

Hey, finally a voice of reason. Humans are pretty arrogant at times:).

david cage
Guest
david cage

Gary, it could be worse….just imagine how frustrated you would feel if it was doing this with snow….lol

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

If my theory about surface features gradually shaping the next LRC is correct then the LRC can’t really do this with snow because the surface features are dictating our pattern right now. Surface features don’t really start to emerge until Spring time and are created by surface-based convection. By the time October comes around, our weather pattern starts to be more influenced by the jet stream again. This is probably why Gary says the new LRC doesn’t really start until October. Outflow, meso-highs, meso-lows. Influences from the tropics as hurricanes bring their own surface features up similar to MCS systems.… Read more »

Observer
Guest
Observer

But the Bomb Cyclone wasn’t here during the heat wave. It’s actually due in next week, around Aug 6-7. Counting back 49 days from there puts you WAY earlier than our July heat wave.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Teleconnections not direct.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Even if the MO side doesn’t get any rain, at least all the clouds are keeping things cool.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Thought the first two weeks of August were predicted by wx2020 to be wet.
Agree with Three7s, something seems to have changed.

Michael
Guest
Michael

When do you think the chance of “one big warm up and maybe even a short heat wave to happen” (your words)? As the one weather app for the weeks of August don’t even come close to a statement like that? At least I don’t see it and very possible I overlooked it? Just asking, for a friend (of course). Thanks

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Did Keith Urbanity finally get some rain last night?
How about my buddy FarmerMike in North Central KS?
I think areas further south can get the rain even east of stateline, but KC has missed the boat here. The rainfall map from Tuesdays blog was WAY off, but models will never be perfect. It illustrated there was potential for significant rain in localized areas, and it did just that it was simply 30-50 miles further west.

Roger
Guest
Roger

North-central Kansas:
Minneapolis: 1.69″
Concordia: 1.25″
Belleville: 1.06″
Salina: 0.85″

Meanwhile, the core of the dry weather the last 40 days (D0 according to the Drought Monitor) in central, south-central, and western Kansas is paltry again. Last 2 days:

Great Bend: 0.11″
Pratt: 0.07″
Dodge City: 0.06″
Hutchinson: 0.04″
Medicine Lodge: 0.04″
Garden City: Trace
Russell: Trace

Sheesh!!!

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Hume we struck out, not a drop. I know people scoff at this but storms moving in from the NW don’t make it thru the wind farm very often, especially when there is a strong wind component. We are very very dry even though ponds and creeks are full.
But, it’s cooled down nicely, so at least it feels great outside.

Roger
Guest
Roger

A new wind farm proposal was voted down last month in south-central Kansas, near Haven. What city is about 30 miles SE of there? Wichita.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

MAN! Dad gummit
Where exactly are you? I know west of Salina but can’t recall. I saw the storms hit Salina proper but not much further west or SW from that point. What can you do?

farmermike
Guest
farmermike

almost 4″ early this morning…. this was needed very much
the last rain at the farm was about .30″ on july 3rd

Big j
Guest
Big j

No rain is always preferable to 11 inches.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

We get it you hate rain

Big j
Guest
Big j

You are correct sir!!!! (Ed McMahon responding to Johnny).

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

I rather enjoyed it here in Lawrence. Surprisingly, didn’t get much flooding either.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Interesting how the pattern discussion has shifted over the past couple months.. feels like we were just at “a wet summer and no heat waves” but we’re now at “let’s hope we can get rain and avoid another heat wave.” Did the LRC see this shift coming?

Troy
Guest
Troy

I think July and August are always a bit harder to read. The main belt of westerlies is much further North and weaker here that things just work out differently.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

That’s what I’ve been thinking too. Kansas City’s summer takes on a lot of tropical characteristics. The weather breaks free of a pattern for a bit. It becomes entirely local and unpredictable.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

The real test will be September. If September is still dry despite a strengthening jet, then a shift in something at the surface can’t be argued against. I would say a possible new LRC influence could be in the cards at that point too.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

It’s the same but different

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

Both local news stations in Topeka had this thing falling apart before it brought much rain further east than Topeka. As we always hear, “let’s see how this develops.”

Even the past 20-30 minutes on the radar loop seem to show significant weakening already.

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

I’m thinking Ottawa is feeling frustrated for a different reason. Normal rainfall is nice, the deluge of rain a county or so to the west is not welcoming the flooding rains. I for one am glad that it is staying to the west. Heavy rain doesn’t help much when it washes away the top soil and causes damage to crops, roads, buildings and livestock deaths.

Tuttle Lake is pretty much ruined from the flooding rains as well as Hillsdale Lake a little closer to home. I sure hope the next pattern is more temperate.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

“Tuttle Lake is pretty much ruined from the flooding rains” Tell me about it! Our county roads have been under water since March 14th, and we have been living on a private, gated peninsula since then. Our route to and from here is a 3/4 mile trip through our pasture, where we can access a township road. The first part of our trek out is a 140 foot climb in elevation to the top of the ridge east of the Big Blue River, and the grade on that stretch is steeper than the road up Pikes Peak. The Pottawatomie &… Read more »

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Perry has been in bad shape all year as well. Parks and boat launches all still closed

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The storm system has drifted much farther east from where it first appeared.
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_lite_loop.php

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

This area midway between Marysville & Manhattan has gotten 2.25” of rain since the storm hit at 5 AM (so far), and the first inch fell in 30 minutes.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=uex&product=NTP&loop=no

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Another huge whiff for KC today it appears.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Yeah, if you consider the storm duration as a whole, this would be a whiff.

John
Guest
John

Yes, today since the rain is falling apart to our west again the rainfall forecast of 2-5″ was a whiff, considering most locations in the metro saw less than .25″ of rain. Yesterday was too early to say that, since this was a 3-day forecast, but today it is frustrating that we are just missing the rain again.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Must be ole boys wind farm conspiracy 😂

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

I dunno? You? 🙂