Excessive Rain For Some – Not A Drop For Many Others

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good morning bloggers,

Well, well, well!  Here we are on this Thursday morning, August 1, 2019.  Yes, it is a rare August 1st!  I expected the band of very heavy thunderstorms to line up near the state line, and it did just that.

This radar image, above, shows another thunderstorm moving into Lawrence, KS.  New thunderstorms were forming in a band north of Lawrence into the southeast corner of Nebraska.  This zone has barely budged and we are now up to close to 9″ of rain in a few spots.  Flash Flood Warnings are in effect in this narrow zone.  Look at the rainfall totals:

It has been a frustrating last 12 hours for myself, and at the same time we need to let go of our personal experience of the rain coming down and realize how incredible this rainfall event is, and it is not even close to being done. This is also the target for tonights thunderstorms.  There is a disturbance developing today.  This disturbance will move towards Kansas City tonight. If it is a bit stronger than indicated here, then the rain will spread east a bit out over western Missouri.  If it is a bit weaker, then the thunderstorms will once again target eastern Kansas.

If you live near or east of the state line it may be dry tonight as well.  My confidence in Lawrence getting another 5″ to 10″ of rain is fairly high, and my confidence of Blue Springs getting only a few drops is also high.  A slight shift east, and we could go from that few drops to 5 or 10 inches of rain.  It is just incredibly difficult to predict that exact location.  We predicted the amount of rain quite accurately, and at the same time, many of our yards may be dry when this system leaves the area by Saturday morning.  Let’s see if there is any shift in the track.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Rain and thunderstorms ending on the Kansas side with total rainfall amounts near Lawrence reaching close to 10″.  Farther east it will be dry.  High:  79°
  • Tonight:  5 to 10 more inches of rain possible in the same area that got hit last night.  It may shift a bit, so we will monitor it closely.  Low:  64°
  • Friday:  Rain and thunderstorms likely west of the state line, and dry east of the state line.  The counties on the state line will be on the edge of the rain.  High:  78°
  • Saturday:  The wind shifts to the north and the rain ends early to the south, and it stays dry to the northeast.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.  Have a great day!

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

102
Leave a Reply

avatar
48 Comment threads
54 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
52 Comment authors
phtransplantJordanBig jf00dl3Three7s Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Jordan
Guest
Jordan

LOL @ Gerard saying we’ll need to mow after all this rain.

Big j
Guest
Big j

Love it, rain out west this am, and the whole KC region remains dry. We’ve gotten about .4” over the last few days by Smithville. Much better than the 3-10 inches.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

You have to be in denial if you can’t see that surface features have changed. If the jet stream is so far north, the axis of the heavier rain would be further north and east, not south and west. The fact the axis of heavier rain is further west shows to me that the anticyclone, which wasn’t in previous cycles until early this month, is causing the surface features to set up differently. Over time this will cause the long term troughing to shift setting up the next LRC to have the long term trough over central Kansas – the… Read more »

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

If that does happen, that would be mean a huge winter for us.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Until you consider the fact the anti-cyclone is there and could cause too much ridging during parts of the pattern. I mean we average less than 20″ of snow for a reason – if it was “that easy” to get snow, we’d have 35+” snow winters every year.

Roger
Guest
Roger

Drought Monitor: Abnormally Dry (D0)

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?KS

That’s what 40 days of dry weather gets you.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

So KCI reported 2.38” for July, which was forecasted to be above average for the month but fell close to 2” below average. I would call that forecast a bust as well. I do believe the LRC has value in its cycles but when it comes to forecasting rainfall or snowfall amounts, it still needs a lot of work.

phtransplant
Guest
phtransplant

It all depends on location. More than 9 inches in Pleasant Hill in July (3 days of rain). Personally glad to be missing the heavy rains of this week as we could use a break for a while. But realize others have different opinions.

Dan M
Guest
Dan M

Gary can you define “way west” for those of us who live in Topeka and follow you? Your forecasts are the most dependable and better then what we get here. Thanks!

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

At 5 pm Gary said looking like everyone will get a break tonight.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

A break in that everyone will get rain, or everyone will get a break from the rain

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Exactly heat. For those on east side of metro, a break would be rain. For those west of the metro, a break would be no rain. The graphic the other day showed 3” for most of the metro and some areas with 3-10”. A good chunk of the metro has received 0.4” or less.

Zachary McNerney
Guest
Zachary McNerney

Still love ya Gary. But man some of these forecasts just aren’t planning out how you predicted. Just wondering if there is some science behind why. And cannot wait till winter. Come on major snowstorms

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Newest data, ever further west for activity tonight. A blessing for those under water right now. Hwever, those along Stateline and just east should get good rainfall Friday evening if data is correct looks like a nice deformation zone per NAM

Chris
Guest
Chris

Define “good rainfall” haha. A couple of inches or 10?

Trevor
Guest
Trevor

Where is the main area looking to set up tonight? Any input is appreciated.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

comment image?883de92e5df8ce9a223d882936eef0ba
The forecast from the NWS Topeka (updated at 5:11 PM) shows the bullseye is southwest of Marysville.

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

Gary- any chance you could update us bloggers on where you expect the heavy rain to form tonight?

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

It won’t. At least not in metro and not in areas that were impacted last night and this morning. According to Gary at 5

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

“If you need rain for your yard or farm, this should be the week for you as we set up in a zone of thunderstorms.“

Whiff.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Now, none of the short term models have much of anything reaching the metro tomorrow night. Everything falls apart and refires south and east. Sounds familiar.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Is the week over yet Nostradamus?? I never understand this mentality. When the week is over and then if we didn’t get the rain, THEN it would make more sense to say “Whiff”. Otherwise, if we do get a ton of rain the next 48 hours you have humble pie to eat. Everyone jumps to conclusions before events, weather or otherwise, are even completed. Insanity

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Haha no, the week isn’t over, but every model is trending the rain even further away tomorrow, and Gary doesn’t sound too confident that ANYTHING will make it here now. It’s not insanity, it’s frustration that the last two rainfall forecasts have been inaccurate at best (at least they’ve been more accurate this year than last; last year’s summer rain forecasts were a trainwreck), and it affects how I plan my days. If they give me a 90%-100% chance of rain, then I don’t want to waste water on my garden or lawn. When they’re completely wrong, as it is… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

HRRR and NAM 3KM do not show rain until tomorrow morning for KC metro and even that just light.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

That’s what Lezak said at 5 pm

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Poof

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Do you think they will start to take some of the counties out of the flash flood watch on the northeast side? Doesn’t seem like that area has gotten near what was forecasted and wont get much if anything tonight.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Nothing like a 10 inch rain to start your day. lol

Nick
Guest
Nick

Well kstj is at .96 inch for July, same song different verse, lol. At least its not hot.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Yes the official reporting station in St. Joseph appears to be a donut hole or doesn’t record rainfall accurately? Hard to fathom that this could be year 3 below normal for St. Joseph especially considering how much precip has fallen in the region….

Nick
Guest
Nick

I think it may be accurate, there have been a few events where there seemed to be a gradient right over the city( the big 3 to 8 inch rain to our northeast a few weeks ago seemed to had “fingers” of cells that msde it in as it was dieing) I would like to see a 3 or 4 year rainfall map to see the differences between kstj and other areas.

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

What’s the latest data say about where the heaviest rain will fall tonight?

Craig
Guest
Craig

If Lawrence sees another 8″+ tonight, would there be any concern for the Clinton Lake Dam?
Perhaps Bill in Lawrence can chime in?

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Craig: Happy Thursday!! The heaviest rain last night actually fell just and south and east of the Clinton Lake watershed….I may be wrong, but I don’t think the Clinton Watershed had the kind of rain we did. My area all drains into Washington Creek which flows into the Wakarusa River about a mile below the dam. For sure it will change their release schedule due to all the water below the dam, but the dam itself should will be okay. Washington Creek was absolutely insane today which is really something considering how much they have damed it up. There is… Read more »

Jason
Guest
Jason

Sure hope there isn’t a repeat tonight, but it sounds like there might be. I’m south of you a bit and totaled over 10″ Water over county roads. I barely was able to get out and to work.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/5225/1012/1600/mapbig.gif
Here’s a map of the Wakarusa River basin.

Bob
Guest
Bob

Do you know a guy named Steve that lives on one of those watersheds? We go fishing out there a couple times a year.

Well, not this year.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

comment image
The water level on Clinton Reservoir is presently 893’ (roughly 10’ below full capacity). Here’s a link to inflow, outflow & water level changes.
http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/nwk/kcbull3.pdf

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Grand total of the last two days at KCI: 0.13″.

Move east, move east…

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

less than .05 from this mornings round just outside St. Joseph but had nice showers through about midday yesterday another 1/2 inch made my July total 1.8 for the month which fell since the 21st. Cooler weather has helped as much as the rain to green things up again. Yesterday morning the official reporting station in St. Joseph has 22.15 YTD and normal YTD was 22.14, not sure what they recorded from the last 24 hours, probably less than 1/2 inch. Again we continue to be right around normal here, would be nice to spread all that excessive rain over… Read more »

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

I fell into the watery ring of fire, down down down, but the water got higher, and it felt good good good, the watery ring of fire, the watery ring of fire.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

You get some rain out that way Keith ?

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

No

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Man, figured you got something decent amount of activity west of Salina again last night. Looks like you should get an actual rain tonight, with any luck. Maybe I shouldn’t jinx you?

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

We’ll keep our fingers crossed, I’d be happy with any good soaker. Seems late tonight activity is firing up in areas all around us, but nothing overhead yet.

Givemetherain
Guest
Givemetherain

So those rain predictions that showed the east side of the metro getting 5-10 inches of rain were obviously wrong. Does that mean we are ending up with just a few drops for this entire system?

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

How are the st Joe peeps doing?

Big j
Guest
Big j

I feel for you guys by Lawrence that got all the rain. It sucks. Looks like somebody will get flooding again tonight.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Only recorded .10″ this morning up here in Maryville, MO. Looks like the most of it was about 60 mile west of us! Have a great Thursday Bloggers! Loving this cooler weather! Amazing!
Michael

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Where this heavy rain has already fallen is that running into the Missouri River basin? If so & the same areas get several more inches of rain tonight that could lead to big rises on the MO river down stream in central MO. Thanks

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

7.25″ and counting about 10 miles NW of Lawrence at my house. From June 24th to July 31st at 8:30pm last night I had only had 1.55 inches of rain in that 5 week period. Then from 8:30pm last night to this morning I had over 7″. Crazy weather!

The flooding is unbelievable, our county road was flooded both directions. A niece sent us a picture of the Casey’s in Ottawa under at least 3 feet of water – up to the gas handles on the pumps!

Jason
Guest
Jason

Over 10” just SW of Lawrence. Good Lord. More tonight? Please move east, please move east.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

It looks like the rain is finally starting to taper off for today. Aside from the flooding issue, I hope the new area of storms can shift somewhere else tonight, 12+ hours of thunder and bright lightning is kind of exhausting.

Roger
Guest
Roger

14 straight hours of rain to be exact for Lawrence

Catfish John
Guest
Catfish John

9″ of rain and some wind damage in Galesburg, KS.

Dispassionate Observer
Guest
Dispassionate Observer

A giant whiff would be striking out with the bases loaded, bottom of the 9th. This is more like a single in the fourth inning — the forecast correctly predicted excessive rain in a very narrow band within the viewing area. But it missed the precise location by about a county and a half. Besides, there’s still plenty of game left (after all, the rain predictions included tonight and tomorrow).

Dan M.
Guest
Dan M.

Looks like the models are shifting the rainfall further west for tonight and Friday????

Big j
Guest
Big j

We can only hope.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Picked up 1.05″ here in SW Topeka last night along with 0.80″ the day before. So 1.85″ total so far.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

At least we are getting some nice cloud cover today, keeps temps down, gives A/C a break.

Kstater
Guest
Kstater

We just passed 9 inches in my house in NW Lawrence and it’s still coming. This is definitely the most I’ve had in one sitting in my lifetime.

J-ox
Guest
J-ox

Amazing, as I only had 4.6″ in my gauge in NW Lawrence.
Will add that I’ve never seen flood waters cover the road at least 1′ deep near 31st & Kasold.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Okay, we’ve had enough rain now here in Lawrence….thank you very much. Please share with KC now.

steve p
Guest
steve p

yes please. and thanks for thinking of your neighbors. 0.02″ here……..

Big j
Guest
Big j

I’d vote for central KS. KC has had plenty.

Troy
Guest
Troy

I can’t really recall a weather scenario like this. There really isn’t much going on in the Plains or Midwest except these strange bands of heavy rain moving from North to South. Nothing this year has seemed normal though.

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

Just checked the rain gauge here in North Topeka. Received a nice 1.5” between 10:00 pm last night and this morning.

Looks like Gary’s rainfall map is pretty accurate for my location.

WEATHERBY TOM
Guest
WEATHERBY TOM

Managed to eek out .25″ since yesterday morning here at Weatherby Lake. I’m guessing the line inches just a bit East for tonight and tomorrow and we all get a nice soaking. I find it absolutely amazing that just 30 miles west of here folks got upwards of 6 inches.

steve p
Guest
steve p

wow Tom, I’m literally 3 miles dead east of you off 152 and I got spit; 0.02″

WEATHERBY TOM
Guest
WEATHERBY TOM

Steve, got under a brief heavy downpour this morning, was literally just over my neighborhood – that helped with totals of quarter inch. This storm is weird like that.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

When I went to bed last night I was expecting to be awoken by thunder in the middle of the night, but nada.

Emily B
Guest
Emily B

4.5″ as of 6 AM this morning in SE Berryton (area known as ‘Richland’) in Shawnee County.

WillyInTopeka
Guest
WillyInTopeka

This morning’s line of storms is still north up to Auburn, NE. Do we expect that line to push east at all and give KC some rain? Or will that line just keep splattering Lawrence with another inch or more?

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary:

Happy Thursday morning to you sir!!

Over 6 inches here in Washington Creek Valley last night and it is pouring here again as Gary just noted. This is as bad of flooding as I’ve seen out here….Washington Creek is 100% out and all access to our property is flooded…yes…I am flooded in!!!! Crazy rain and also we are without power.

What an event!!

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

Jason
Guest
Jason

Stay safe Bill

Larry
Guest
Larry

I reported 5.87″ to CoCoRaHS at 7:02 this morning from NW Lawrence. Very heavy rain is falling right now as thunderstorms continue to redevelop and train over the same area. My sump is running every 3 seconds and there is some minor street flooding.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

The rain was predicted to march down the state line and they went way west. Giant whiff for KC.

John
Guest
John

Is it really way west? Lawrence is not way west. It was a rain forecast for over 3 or 4 days not just last night. In Gary’s forecast at 6 yesterday he said somewhere in the viewing area would get 5″ of rain within 50 miles of the state line. Both of those things happened. It is a small corridor that had excessive rain almost impossible to predict until it is happening. I am for one happy that we did not get 10″ of rain in 12 hours.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Lawrence is at least 35 miles west of the state line. Is that close? Now my home in Prairie Village is about a mile from the state line. Close. Yes, these storms went much further to the west.

John
Guest
John

Still within 50 miles of the state line, which is what was predicted at 6. Have to get up too early for work to see the 10 o’clock news, but Im guessing it was set where the zone of heavy rain was going to set up by then? Sure it was not an exact location at 6 but there was also nothing on radar.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Wow. Weather forecasting, as good as it’s become, is still not perfect. I would agree with John. Gary did preface that it would be around the state line, but it could shift just a bit and some folks wouldn’t get much. You can hold Gary to his exact words when he totally misses, but this isn’t a giant whiff. Pretty much accurate in my book.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I’m sure others would agree that for those of us in KC, near the state line, got whiffed. It’s all about perspective.

John
Guest
John

Even in the blog yesterday he said somewhere within 50 miles of KC was going to see excessive rainfall. Never said exactly where that zone would be. Just posted a map of what models were showing. He takes the models and makes a forecast. There was no way of knowing where the training line of thunderstorms was going to set up until they formed. Also said either side of that zone would not see much rain at all. Did not rain at my house , so with that logic it was a terrible blown forecast I guess? The map he… Read more »

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

There were several mets placing the target over KC yesterday, FYI.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I’m near the state line, and I don’t believe it was a whiff. It’s hard to predict exactly where storms are going to form, especially storms as narrow as that.. For those that wanted rain, it’s definitely frustrating being that close, but Gary definitely did not blow the forecast.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

in terms of predicting weather, that is really close

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

I agree Pete, a GIANT whiff for KC again!

Big j
Guest
Big j

At the end of the day, it seems even the fanciest computers made by men cannot outguess the Lord:)

BigSteve
Guest
BigSteve

Why does ‘the Lord’ hate Lawrence?

Nick
Guest
Nick

I didn’t catch the Lord’s prediction last night ;).

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Gary nailed this set up on Tuesday when he forecasted 10″ in spots, but the reality now is those same areas that just got dumped on could see another similar event unfold tonight. That would be simply catastrophic for those areas, in short, a 1 in 1000 year event really. Roads, bridges washed away. Can’t think of anther setup any given place locally could receive 20″ of rain in 2 days. Mega-rain, look it up! Happening more frequently these days. Got about 1.2″ at the farm, and feeling somewhat guilty as I got a perfect soaking rain and just right… Read more »

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

I’d take just one little cell at this point. The last “big” rain event I was supposed to get ended up as a paltry scattering of barely-there showers, and so far less than .25″ out of this 5″-10″ event. Considering the models have been trending any subsequent rain even slightly further west, I’m not confident my lawn and garden are going to get watered.

Jack Morrisey
Guest
Jack Morrisey

Can everyone just play nice today so Gary doesn’t have to sanitize the blog comments and instead provide some great science and thought around our love it or hate it weather?

Gabe
Guest
Gabe

6” confirmed at 6:30, 5 miles SE of Lawrence.