Good morning bloggers,
A rather fascinating weather pattern is in the process of setting up across the plains today. Excessive rainfall will be the biggest result from this set-up across the plains with impacts coming in the form of flash flooding and rising rivers once again. The amount of rain will likely be quite extreme in a few spots as thunderstorms train from north-northwest to south-southeast tracking over the same spots for hours at a time. The next two nights into the following mornings are the most likely time periods for the heavy rain. The zone is already showing itself this morning with rain and thunderstorms near KC already.
The developing surface pattern:
Temperatures will be rising to around 105°, or possibly even higher in the warm sector of this developing surface pattern. At the same time it will likely be in the 60s in the rain areas. This large summer temperature contrast will lead to a zone of thunderstorms and it just happens to be setting up right near the Kansas/Missouri state line. There will likely be a zone within 50 miles of KC, and possibly right over the KC metro area, that ends up with close to 10″ of rain in the next three days.
This is just too much rain, and the water will be flowing into the creeks and rivers, which will lead to flooding. Flash flooding is also likely in areas that have over 2″ of rain in one hour, which will easily be the rainfall rates in the heavier thunderstorms.
We will be monitoring this closely. The heat and the high humidity are combining to produce the conditions for this very heavy rainfall event.
Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Let us know if you have any questions.
Gary
Sweet, it all stayed west. Glad to donate to KS!
A swing and a miss for KC
Looking like another whiff of a big rain forecast. Less than .25″ so far.
The heavy rain still happened. Between Topeka and Lawrence they have received between 6-10″ of rain last night. Missing a 10 to 15 mile wide band of thunderstorms by 30 miles is not bad. Maybe it will line up over the metro tonight, but I thought it would line up over the same area 3 nights in a row. If that is the case then the metro will see less than half an inch for 3 days and then we can call it a big whiff.
Considering all of the short term models have shown the subsequent rainfall lining up even slightly further west than this one was predicted to, I’m fairly confident this is going to be a big miss for the metro. Not that I needed 10″ of rain, but my garden is dry, and 1/4″ isn’t going to cut it, especially when they’ve been hyping this rain potential up so damn much.
First time since this LRC began that I’ve seen anything miss us to the west! f00dl3 may well be right.
Though it does seem to be slowly creeping east. Hopefully it keeps that up.
As nice as a big summer night thunderstorm may be, having this much thunder and lightening go on for hours is getting exhausting. Not much sleep tonight.
how does Friday evening look?
Big whiff for KC
Love it so far. Glad the rain ended up west of the predicted area. Hopefully KC stays dry!
Almost 2” already about 5 miles SE of Lawrence.
I hope it rains for the yards but I feel for the people with basement issues. It seems like it’s feast or famine in the Midwest during the summer.
Yeah I don’t think KC will get rain tonight. Look how storms that try to form closer to the city are sheering off.
Looks like the training line of storms will not be on the stateline as predicted, rather west near Topeka.
That’s OK, this is one train I don’t want any part of!
Hope I’m wrong but I’m in Topeka and I don’t know that we will see a drop. Such a narrow line of storms, looks line this line is trying to thread the needle between Topeka and Lawrence for the rest of the night. Lawrence may not even be in a great position, almost looks too far east at this point. At least Lawrence saw some rain out of the initial setup around 8:30 or 9:00.
Again, I hope it expands some but looks like about 10 miles east of Topeka to west Lawrence may be the (only?) wet area.
Looks like Lawrence is in the jackpot area tonight for rainfall. From what’s on radar now it looks like Topeka may not see any rain. Frustrating!
yup…lots of rain right now in Lawrence…some training going on
Getting a bit windier 19mph sustained and gusting into the 30’s in Maui. Had an amazing snorkeling adventure today. There are some swells as the tropical storm approaches. No rain and plenty of sun. Loving this island. Hope everyone gets some rain but not too much. Enjoy!
This morning’s band formed to the east of us. The new band has formed to the west of us. Here we are, stuck in the middle again….
It can be frustrating. Now, let’s see how this evolves in the next few hours. The zone is not completely defined yet. Yes, it may be just southwest of KC, and then again, it may shift a bit in the next twelve hours. Someone is going to get 5″ of rain tonight.
Looks like Lawrence is going to get the 5.
“Zone of storms to the northeast of me, Zone of storms to the west(sw), In St. Joe stuck in the middle again”… I sing 😆
They just showed 2 live feeds on the 5pm news. 1 live feed, sunny and hot, the next live feed pouring heavy rain and lightning. Pretty cool
Weather is weird out right now. I’m working outside up on Barry Rd and it is constantly lightning with frequent loud thunder, but no rain. Radar says it should be pouring but yet nothing. Dry thunderstorm or just really small?
Must have just been on the very edge. Drove down the street a few blocks and the pavement was wet.
Oklahoma City’s Will Rogers World Airport reports only 0.06″ in July. According to the NWS, it’s their 4th driest July on record (since 1891).
Welcome to Johnny Cash (Ring of Fire) weather the next few days…………….
Roger, ask libtard Humey the farmer. No matter how the crops are doing he’ll bitch about it.
Gary
Good enough, you deleted all the non-weather / political comments, including mine.
Except you missed the one above.
He gets a pass because he mentions crops. 🤔
Spooky is a pain in the arse. Every. Time
Yes, why does he always get a free pass? Others have been banned for less.
1.55 inches for the month of July at our house (east of Topeka)
2019 Totals thus far:
Jan – 1.35″
Feb – 1.85″
Mar – 4.1″
Apr – 4.8″
May – 9.65″
June – 5.6″
July – 1.55″
Pretty consistent with what has happened in central Kansas/Oklahoma, northern Missouri, Iowa, and western/central Illinois in the last 35-40 days. With very little precip expected in the next 7-10 days.
Okay bloggers, it may have been one word, but it was enough. Let’s keep politics out of the weather blog. And, the new ICON model is like the Euro model, which has the bulls eye as I have been describing near the KS/MO state line. Let’s enjoy this weather experience!
Hi Gary, you probably should have put your announcement about politics as a new post, and not a reply to my rain totals post. Seems out of place.
Agreed !
Gary you need to put the hammer down again. But n your blog writeups. Make it a permanent final paragraph/ sentence in every writeup. Like your signature “ thank you for sharing in this weather experience “. …..
“No political comments. No trolling, etc.”
It might help
Can the forum software screen out certain words? If you can do that, you should make it so that it screens out the name of any US president, current or past, or the name of any political party, and that should pretty much kill any political talk. You should probably screen out words like the one Spooky used above.
I am looking forward to the rain, but this may be too much in a short amount of time if the forecast is correct, which from every source I look at for weather appears to be showing. Looks like the first couple of days of August will get us back up to being on pace for the wettest year on record again. Hopefully the rain amounts are about half of what is predicted. Kurt I hope you get some rain too so you do not have to carry around hoses the rest of summer.
Anybody know how the corn crops are doing?
Doing pretty well. Most Midwest states had some prevent plant because it was so stinking wet. But the crops that did get put in are doing ok. Some are about a month behind due to late planting. But at the end of the day they’ll be plenty of corn and soybeans to go around. The corn is pretty much made but beans will need a little rain in August. However 20-60 inches of rain in August would be debrtrimental.
We put sod down yesterday on our new home. I guess this will help with our water bill.
The rain amounts have underperformed compared to the models these past few months and my area was not a “wet July” as some predicted. I will expect 3-4” which is a good amount and not overwhelming the yard . We’ll see what happens. For now I am keeping an eye on the Pacific for storms headed towards Hawaii. We leave on Sunday so I think I am good. Maui is beautiful and less touristy as Oahu. Will definitely come back here again but want to check out some of the other islands as well on the next trip here.
I know the maps above are just predicted rain, but the yellow areas in Clay/Clinton county….does the amount of rain in this area correspond to the same amount of rain in the yellow area on the far southeast periphery of the heavy rain (in central MO), or is that more rain that the gray areas surrounding the metro? Is there a “key” to this map because I’m not sure how to read it? I live not too far from Fishing River in Mosby and am concerned that 69 Highway might be closed again due to flash flooding…thus making my commute… Read more »
No I think that yellow area is even more precipitation than the darker grey areas unfortunately. That is a tiny bullseye relatively speaking so it could probably move in any direction. If this mornings activity was an indication of the following days then the heaviest will be north and east of the city. This morning also had the least chance of rain so probably no indication of what is to come.
Since St. Joseph was only 1.5 inches above normal YTD this morning, I won’t have a problem even with 10 inches of rain except perhaps some leaks in the basement and ruts in the driveway. I live on a hill and never had a flood threat. It doesn’t inconvenience me to have a wet yard for a few days, the clay soils drain rather well and after a couple days of sun I can usually get back in the yard an mow. I’d hope we don’t get the extreme rains, but it will be nice not to have to water… Read more »
I’ll have to change my name to FTWMike
Andrew H. To answer yesterdays question, Yes I finally moved back home to Fort Worth
All or nothing this pattern.
Cant wait for the rain but we’ve only got 2 spits worth (0.06″) as of 8:30 today near Zona. We were 3.81″ for July. C’mon rain!
I’d rather water my yard manually than have 10″. 2-3 over 3 days, sure. Flooding in my basement, no thanks.
Here are my July totals for Maryville, MO. Luckily we got wet towards the end of the month. I ended up with 4.80″ for the month over 5 rain events. The biggest was on July 21st with 1.85″. And the least was on July 9th with a total of .03″ We were at a D-0 drought, however with the recent rains I expect to be lifted from this. Have a great day Bloggers!
Michael
Thanks for keeping tabs Michael! I got 0.7 inches of rain at my place last night. Getting in a few last drops this morning.
No problem! I love the weather!
Michael
Rain in August is a blessing. I haven’t heard the “d” word in a long time!
If everyone in KC would get outside and blow to the west maybe we’d get some out here in central KS:)
I’d be glad to donate every drop
to you.
Russell, KS is approaching 40 days with only 0.46″ of rain!
Oklahoma City with only 0.06″!!!!
Yep, we’re in a similar situation, feels drought like. NOAA forecast for zero precipitation here over next 5 days, but long term (6-14 days) their outlook looks promising.
Hopefully. I live west of Wichita, and we will finish over 3 inches below normal for July, only about 10-20% of normal.
And the recurring feature we called the bomb cyclone in winter should be here a week from today.
Better put some sand bags around the yard, kurt
I live on a hill, never any flood threat or swampy yard. I love the rain bring it!!!
Even the boys in St Joe will quit complaining about being dry if this is correct. Back to the miserable swamp and 16” to 18” above normal for the year.
Gotta go get the chains and flotation tires put back on the zero turn mower :).
No swamp issues here, you are extremely wet down that way; we’re just a tad above normal year to date so bring on the rains!
I hope you get it all Kurt:)
Crops need a drink real bad up here…
This is disgusting. That is too much water whether you need a rain or not. This weather pattern can’t end soon enough
yeah, you’re right. I hate when everything’s green, not watering the lawn, lakes and reservoirs replenishing after 7-8 years of too little rain. and those cool summer temps! bah humbug! I wanted to run the a/c 24/7 for next 90d to keep the power company in business. and those cool, dry 59F degree nights with the windows open in July? what kind of person wants that? I feel sorry for your wife and kids.
I bet you and Kurt would be friends.
Looking forward to having a green yard again.
Don’t you mean a lake in your yard?
Algae can be green.