Good morning bloggers,
A wet weather pattern is setting up across the plains. The next ten days will have a very good chance of receiving 3″ of rain or more. The summer anticyclone will be interacting with the main flow aloft over Canada to create a zone that will likely produce 10″ of rain in a few spots.
There are many chances of complexes of thunderstorms during the next two weeks or so. Let’s look at the first two weeks from each LRC cycle here in KC:
- Cycle 1 (October 5-18): 10.52″ and 0.2″ of snow
- Cycle 2 (November 23-December 6): 1.88″ and 6.3″ of snow
- Cycle 3 (January 10-23): 1.19″ and 6.8″ of snow
- Cycle 4 (February 28-March 13): 1.33″ and 2.8″ of snow
- Cycle 5 (April 18-May 10): 3.32″
- Cycle 6 (June 6-19): 2.04″
- Cycle 7 (July 25 – August 7): 0.22″ so far
- Cycle 8 (September 12-25): Prediction is 3″ to 6.5″
We are currently in the first week of the seventh LRC cycle. The first two weeks of each cycle has either been near average or way above average rainfall and snowfall in the first two weeks. Before the new LRC sets up, we will have one more complete cycle in September, and I am expecting that last cycle to be quite wet.
Three big take aways by looking at these numbers:
- As you can see above, we are predicting a very wet beginning to the final LRC cycle of the 2018-2019 season.
- Over half of the 29″ of snow that fell in KC this past winter season occurred during these first two weeks of the cycles. The 16.1″ of snow fell in the first two weeks of the four winter snow cycles. So, 16.1″ of the 29″ of snow fell in 56 out of the 196 days. Over half of the snow fell on 29% of the days. Interesting isn’t it?
- Average to much above average precipitation fell in all previous cycles during these two weeks
Cycle 8 will begin during the middle of September, just as what is called the “second season” of severe weather, which happens in the fall in some years. We should have a severe weather set up or two during cycle 8. And, then the new LRC will begin in October.
It’s going to be a gorgeous summer day. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your days sharing in this weather experience! Have a great Tuesday.