A Wet Pattern Is About To Set Up

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Good morning bloggers,

A wet weather pattern is setting up across the plains.  The next ten days will have a very good chance of receiving 3″ of rain or more.  The summer anticyclone will be interacting with the main flow aloft over Canada to create a zone that will likely produce 10″ of rain in a few spots.

There are many chances of complexes of thunderstorms during the next two weeks or so.  Let’s look at the first two weeks from each LRC cycle here in KC:

  • Cycle 1 (October 5-18):  10.52″ and 0.2″ of snow
  • Cycle 2 (November 23-December 6):  1.88″ and 6.3″ of snow
  • Cycle 3 (January 10-23):  1.19″ and 6.8″ of snow
  • Cycle 4 (February 28-March 13):  1.33″ and 2.8″ of snow
  • Cycle 5 (April 18-May 10):  3.32″
  • Cycle 6 (June 6-19):  2.04″ 
  • Cycle 7 (July 25 – August 7):  0.22″ so far
  • Cycle 8 (September 12-25):  Prediction is 3″ to 6.5″

We are currently in the first week of the seventh LRC cycle.  The first two weeks of each cycle has either been near average or way above average rainfall and snowfall in the first two weeks.  Before the new LRC sets up, we will have one more complete cycle in September, and I am expecting that last cycle to be quite wet.

Three big take aways by looking at these numbers:

  1. As you can see above, we are predicting a very wet beginning to the final LRC cycle of the 2018-2019 season.
  2. Over half of the 29″ of snow that fell in KC this past winter season occurred during these first two weeks of the cycles.  The 16.1″ of snow fell in the first two weeks of the four winter snow cycles.  So, 16.1″ of the 29″ of snow fell in 56 out of the 196 days.  Over half of the snow fell on 29% of the days.  Interesting isn’t it?
  3. Average to much above average precipitation fell in all previous cycles during these two weeks

Cycle 8 will begin during the middle of September, just as what is called the “second season” of severe weather, which happens in the fall in some years.  We should have a severe weather set up or two during cycle 8. And, then the  new LRC will begin in October.

It’s going to be a gorgeous summer day.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your days sharing in this weather experience!  Have a great Tuesday.

Gary

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Joe King
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Joe King

will it rain all day Thurs/Fri/Sat?

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

NAM sniffing a training event, GFS similar as well. Some serious flash flooding may unfold, thought Gary little crazy calling 10″ amounts on that map but latest data is painting that distinct possibility! More like a snowfall map! Bold prediction and I say we will likely see some spots with very excessive amounts very nearby

Skylar
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Skylar

The rain up in the Omaha area this evening has looked more like lake effect snow bands rather than a normal summer thunderstorm complex. If something similar happens the next few nights down here with stronger storms it certainly could overwhelm some places while areas a few miles away get barely anything.

Birdieman
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Birdieman

I’ve followed this blog for a while and posted on occasion. I find it quite fascinating for various reasons of which I’ll keep to myself lest I get called a troll:). That said, I respect the insight many of you have. So I have a question for whomever wants to tackle it. It’s obvious the lrc is based on recurring pattern. I’d like to know if there is a pattern to the patterns? In other words, will this particular lrc come back around in say 2, 5, 7,12 years? Gary probably knowa but doubt he’ll share too much insight for… Read more »

Dyl
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Dyl

Hurricane Erick has made it past the threshold hold for Cat 3, and models are slowly shifting the track towards Honolulu and Kapa’a.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/301447.shtmlcomment imagecomment imagecomment image

And it’s structure has gotten much, much, more organized.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06E&product=vis-swir

And it has also undergone Rapid Intensification.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Uh-oh just great. That doesn’t sound good.
Friends are on Kauai until Aug. 7th

Dyl
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Dyl

Oh no! Hopefully both storms pass south, and Hawaii can avoid them for a few years again. Because they, are so small, if they both stray away from the islands, they will both only impact the islands in terms of surf.

FTWMike
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FTWMike

Can you send some of that rain to Fort Worth

Andrew H
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Andrew H

👍 hook’em horns !
not seen for awhile ! Are you living in TX now ?

Johnny
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Johnny

Screw Texas

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Thanks Gary
So, Cycle 8 will be short lived.
Is it common to have over 7 cycles ?
Over the many years of analyzing the LRC and figuring out cycle lengths, what have they averaged out to. Shortest and longest.
Do you keep a chart or something to show each years cycle lengths ?

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Not asking for Gary to divulge any proprietary secrets, just past cycle lengths. To see if cycle lengths correlate to wet or dry years. I guess lenghths probably have nothing to do with yearly actual precip and temps.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

I asked Gary a similar question in the fall, and he told me that the shortest cycle length he has documented (going back to the 1960s using charts to work out the patterns) is 2002-2003, with a 37-day cycle.

As for the longest, no idea. 2004-2005 was ~75 days, and I find it hard to imagine any cycle being longer than that, but I suppose it’s possible.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

🤔 75 ?? Over 2 mos long ? Wow

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Look at the difference in precip amounts across the state, maybe Kansas should be called the Great Divide. Not a drop forecast in OK City either, hence nothing coming out of the southwest. The precip over eastern Kansas must be the ring of fire kind.

John
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John

Western and central Kansas are a very arid climate and do not on average experience close to the annual precipitation that eastern Kansas and western Missouri experience. Being on the downslope of a large mountain range creates a rain shadow effect. If not for the access to Gulf of Mexico moisture the high plains would be a desert like most of the SW. The rain in the forecast is a ring of fire setup with disturbances rotating out of the monsoon moisture over the western states and rotating around the anticyclone approaching our area from the NW. At least that… Read more »

Roger
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Roger

Most of Iowa and western Illinois are void of precipitation in the last 35-40 days too. Very isolated pockets of heavy rain have occurred, with Kansas City in one of those pockets. Overall, the rain shield has decreased rapidly.

John
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John

Even with how dry some people think it is there are no significant areas of drought across the entire country, except for parts of Alaska.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

But that could change next month, not that I expect it to but after a very wet period we’ll see a dry stretch usually. Just kind of the law of averages, next year’s LRC I am sure will be much drier than this year’s.

Dan M.
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Dan M.

Gary – how set are you on the positioning of that rain? The euro appears to be the only model that puts the heaviest rain that far west – i.e. Topeka. All other models seem to target the Kansas/Missouri line and east. Based on the history of this LRC, doesn’t the Euro seem to be too far west and the target for rain will the state line east into southeast Kansas? Thanks!

Mike H
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Mike H

I have been following the pattern for about 10 years. This is the best LRC for our area.That I can remember anyway, we are finally in “the right spot”. Has there ever been a better year you can remember?

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Looks like we may struggle to even hit 90 degrees for the next two weeks! Very nice summer weather.

steve p
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steve p

Gary, please explain the dearth of hurricanes making landfall last couple years, and this year, near gulf of Mexico as relates to LRC esp as water temps have been so high. thanks.

Dobber
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Dobber

When’s the rain forecasted to begin Gary?