The Jet Stream Reaches Is Farther North & Weaker

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good morning bloggers,

A scattered to widely scattered area of showers and thunderstorms tracked across eastern Kansas into eastern and southern Missouri overnight.  KCI Airport had 0.22″ of rain, while a few spots had just a few drops, and others had over an inch of rain.  The system organized a lot better after it passed by Kansas City as you can see below:

The jet stream is now reaching its weakest and farthest north position.  The most likely time of the year to have the hottest weather is the last week of July into the first week of August. And, then the jet stream will begin strengthening as fall approaches. This beginning of the strengthening happens around the middle of August.  This map below shows the farther north jet stream:

The blue line shows the 570 decameter line. This is where the pressure is 500 mb, around 5,700 meters above the surface or around 18,000 feet above us.  The summer anticyclone is being pushed out towards the plains by the part of the LRC we are in now, and it will lead to building heat just southwest and west of KC, and this will also place our region in a zone that may end up experiencing torrential rainfall and thunderstorms.  This map below shows KC near this zone by Wednesday night and Thursday, but confidence is a bit shaky on exactly where it will develop.

Look at one of the temperature profiles valid Wednesday evening:

There is quite obviously a zone between the 100 degree heat and the 60s and 70s over an expansive area from New York to KC.  We will learn more about where the thunderstorm zones will be setting up, and how this pattern around the anticyclone and its interaction with the farther north jet stream will develop from day to day.  We will just have to look at the set up as each monsoon disturbance, indicated by those X’s I plotted, will also interact with the flow.  Right now it looks dry today, with an increasing chance of thunderstorms as we move through the week.

Have a great day!

Gary

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

30
Leave a Reply

avatar
12 Comment threads
18 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
15 Comment authors
DylAndrew HC MEastOfEdenJohn Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

The other day someone posted a link alluding to possible hurricane or a t.s. heading towards Hawaii next week. Is it still showing up?
Friends just landed in Kauai. They will be there 9 days.
Where do you go to look at tropical systems ?

C M
Guest
C M

You can go to the National Hurricane Center’s website for information about tropical systems.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?start#contents

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Thanks !

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Some LRC notes:

July 21 rain = Central Missouri snow on April 14 + February 24 rain/snow storm. This is the “St. Louis snowstorm.”

July 25 clouds/sprinkles = Uncertain. This does seem to sort of show up sometimes. 0.05″ on January 7, 0.06″ on June 6. Perhaps this is what it corresponds to.

July 28-29 overnight rain: Supposedly this is “the blizzard” marking our entry into Cycle 7. Pretty weak blizzard.
If working on the theory that this cycle is behaving similarly to April, we should expect a dramatic return of rain in the first few days of August.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

So does 80% chance mean 80% of the viewing area will get rain on Friday ? ( prediction per Gary’s forecast at 5 pm ) Yes, its 4 days away.
But I do recall last week, on sports 810, Gary predicting 80% chance for today and only a few got rain. I know it’s a prediction, but using the LRC.

John
Guest
John

It’s an 80% chance that any one location in the viewing area will see rain, which means that there is a 20% chance that that same location will not see rain.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Ah…..ok. Thanks John.
Don’t know where I got the idea it meant 80% of the area.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Couldn’t tell if Gary’s comment to mine far below implied that we’ll have one more heat wave during mid-August and then that’s it for heat waves. In his scientific mind that’s true because it probably won’t get above mid-90’s for several consecutive days during September, but a week of low 90’s after August to me still a heat wave.
Why doesn’t the school calender year run from after Labor Day thru May? I’d like a vote on it, 75% thumbs up I say we change it.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It’s impossible to fit the required number of days in, unfortunately. I tried it once because I was curious.

John
Guest
John

This is the time of year that confuses me with the LRC. I get that there are seasonal differences and the jet stream is north and weak. How can the same pattern be cycling the same when this is the first below average month for precipitation this year? Then there are several chances of rain in the forecast, but don’t know when or even if it will rain at all.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

I truly believe they are still trying to nail down the impacts of the northern jet stream on the LRC. I’m sure Gary gets tired of defending the LRC, since he is so embedded in it he probably see’s things that we don’t. The LRC may be on schedule, but it’s only the center piece, there are other influences that impact the outcome to a lesser degree, like the Enso condition, the AO, NAO, PNA, and the “wildcards” on his famous graph.

Ben
Guest
Ben

We had 1.7 here in Chillicothe. Very welcome rain for the crops. This pattern has the ability to dump a lot of water in certain places. We were only supposed to get a couple tenths when I watched the broadcast last night

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Not hard to see coming, July and August tend to be very dry regardless of the overall pattern and many have or have not type set ups. Summer thunderstorms are always fickle

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

“…this will also place our region in a zone that may end up experiencing torrential rainfall and thunderstorms. This map below shows KC near this zone by Wednesday night and Thursday, but confidence is a bit shaky on exactly where it will develop.”

I’m guessing this means disturbances will pass by and organize to the south and east of the metro, leaving us in an area of paltry scattered showers.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Picked up a nice, but very windy 1.80″ of rain last night up here in Maryville. Had my yard swing blow over and cushions blow into neighbors yard. I was surprised there was no warning. I bet winds were 50-60 MPH for sure. Still be a dry month however crops are hanging in there with the last two rains we have received the last ten days. Have a great day Bloggers!
Michael

Mike H
Guest
Mike H

The Great Whirl, off the coast of Somalia, forms every year and is on average the size of the state of Colorado. Scientists are trying to determine a way to predict the monsoon weather that seemingly is tied to the Whirl. Here is the link to the feature article on geophysical research letters.
https://news.agu.org/press-release/scientists-track-giant-ocean-vortex-from-space/
My belief is that the ENSO is thee driver of the LRC. There might be others in the car, but ENSO is at the wheel and steers the pattern.

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

We got .70 of an inch last night north of La Cygne. Not to bad for a little storm.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Dang Gary, you placed us in the “VERY HOT” zone, guess the warm front is going to move further north….it always does this time of year. We had a radar red storm pass overhead last night…yet only a sprinkle, not sure I understand why. Enjoy the day.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I watched that line developing west of Salina and thought you were getting a good downpour for sure! Probably did within a few miles of you, the rain shaft was likely very close by. We missed the nicer rains as well, but did scratch out about 1/3″ at the farm to settle the dust and appease the grass for a day or two. There is still ample subsoil moisture in place, but the top few inches of soil had gotten very dry so looking forward to some solid rainfall this week. 2-4″ would do nicely.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Yes there was a downpour a few miles east.