Good morning bloggers,
A scattered to widely scattered area of showers and thunderstorms tracked across eastern Kansas into eastern and southern Missouri overnight. KCI Airport had 0.22″ of rain, while a few spots had just a few drops, and others had over an inch of rain. The system organized a lot better after it passed by Kansas City as you can see below:
The jet stream is now reaching its weakest and farthest north position. The most likely time of the year to have the hottest weather is the last week of July into the first week of August. And, then the jet stream will begin strengthening as fall approaches. This beginning of the strengthening happens around the middle of August. This map below shows the farther north jet stream:
The blue line shows the 570 decameter line. This is where the pressure is 500 mb, around 5,700 meters above the surface or around 18,000 feet above us. The summer anticyclone is being pushed out towards the plains by the part of the LRC we are in now, and it will lead to building heat just southwest and west of KC, and this will also place our region in a zone that may end up experiencing torrential rainfall and thunderstorms. This map below shows KC near this zone by Wednesday night and Thursday, but confidence is a bit shaky on exactly where it will develop.
Look at one of the temperature profiles valid Wednesday evening:
There is quite obviously a zone between the 100 degree heat and the 60s and 70s over an expansive area from New York to KC. We will learn more about where the thunderstorm zones will be setting up, and how this pattern around the anticyclone and its interaction with the farther north jet stream will develop from day to day. We will just have to look at the set up as each monsoon disturbance, indicated by those X’s I plotted, will also interact with the flow. Right now it looks dry today, with an increasing chance of thunderstorms as we move through the week.
Have a great day!