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Good Sunday bloggers,

If you need rain for your yard or farm, this should be the week for you as we set up in a zone of thunderstorms.

The pattern the next 7 days will be quite interesting. The main jet stream will flow across the USA-Canadian border as it should this time of year. An upper level high, also known as an anticyclone or “heat wave creating machine will be found in the southwest USA. Countless disturbances will track around the upper high from near Baja, CA to the southwest USA to the Rockies and then out into the Plains. These disturbances create scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southwest USA, the summer monsoon. When they head into the Plains they can create bigger thunderstorms as they interact with fronts and more significant Gulf of Mexico moisture.

The way the pattern is set up this week, there will be a “cool for summer” air mass from our region and all points north and east. The hot weather will be found from the southwest Plains to the southwest USA, near the upper level high.

This sets up a zone of thunderstorms from the Dakotas to the Gulf coast in between the air masses. These will not be all day rains and it may not rain every day. Timing the rain will be difficult more than one day in advance. The first chance is for tonight.

SUNDAY NIGHT: A cold front and disturbance will track through between 10 PM and 5 AM. This data has a solid area of rain and thunderstorms which would mean most locations receive .25″ to 1″ of rain. However, it could be more scattered than this, which means some may see a few drops, other close to an 1″. Today will be dry, windy, hot and humid with winds south at 15-25 mph.

MONDAY: The rain should exit by the AM rush hour, leaving damp to wet roads. The front will come through during the moring and the afternoon will be nice with highs in the 80s along with decreasing humidity. The front will be stalling in the western Plains as the zone sets up. Notice, the high in Dodge City, 96°.

TUESDAY MORNING: We will be on the southwest edge of the “cool for summer” air mass. Lows will be around 60°, with 50s to the north and northeast. The next system to watch will be bringing rain and thunderstorms to western Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: The rain will be heading this way and look at the temperature contrast. We will be 75° to 80°, while it is 100° to 105° in southwest Kansas. We will be cooler if the rain moves in faster. The rain and thunderstorms will likely move in later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY: The rain will likely exit by noon. If the rain hangs on longer, then it will be in the 70s Wednesday. Also, in rain areas, no matter what time of day it is, temperatures will likely be in the 60s. The setup is there again Wednesday. 105° in southwest Kansas to the 70s and 80s across northeast Kansas north and east. Right now it looks like the best rain chances are Wednesday and Friday. But, we could see rain Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday or a combination of different days. Again, timing the rain will have to be taken one day at a time. The next 7 days should see 1″ to 3″ of rain for most locations.

Have a great week ahead.

Jeff Penner

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Jordan
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Jordan

Wow, last night’s rain didn’t even wet the pavement in northern WyCo.

Big j
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Big j

Got a big .1” near Smithville

f00dl3
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f00dl3

If you don’t see that something at the surface has changed now your blind. This was the blizzard for crying out loud and we barely got anything. The LRC may be the same in general at the 500 mb level, but surface setups are behaving much differently now.

Three7s
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Three7s

Seasonal variance.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Getting some on / off showers here tonight in Prairie Village.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

We’re officially in Cycle 7, right? If adhering perfectly to numbers, the start date would have been Saturday, but looking at temperatures and conditions it could be anywhere from the 21st (big warmup followed by sudden drop with precipitation…anyone else brought back to November there?) up to right now.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Ho hum another car spotter…..

C M
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C M

Inch and a half of much needed rain up here in Maryville, so far.

Big j
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Big j

Me thinks we will get very little rain this week!

Big rain bumpin’ up North tonight 😎!!

f00dl3
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f00dl3

What a blizzard we are getting tonight! Maybe 1/100th of an inch of liquid in spots?

Kurt
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Kurt

Round tonight isn’t looking impressive unless something forms this evening. Yet again Gary and team forecast what should be widespread much needed rain. If this doesn’t produce unless I water the yard every three days this will be the last mowing for sometime. Can’t keep water on the full 2 acres of yard and landscape so just focusing on close to the house.

Really hoping for several inches of rain. July looks to be extremely dry around my immediate area,

Alex Pickman
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Alex Pickman

The 3 inches of rain I got on the 21st, when the heat broke, is what saved my yard in Stewartsville. Barely anything the month prior, and barely anything since.

Kurt
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Kurt

That only produce 1.1 inches and didn’t really make a dent. Essentially been dry here since late May except for 4 days late June

Jordan
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Jordan

Just looked at the video forecast Gerard posted this afternoon, and this forecast is already looking like a bust. “Line” (I use the term loosely) that was shown blowing through in the earlier data is already arriving, and it’s pretty pathetic.

Big j
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Big j

Drought grass saves gas!

Dyl
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Dyl
Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

I’ll let you know what I see. Will be jumping over from Oahu to Maui on Tuesday. Be there until Sunday. Surf could be up!

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Bring it ! The lawns could use a drink.

Johnny
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Johnny

Good luck, kurt

Urbanity
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Urbanity

When does the anti-cyclone break down or move west again? The 100’s are too close for comfort, I’m guessing Salina to Russell we are looking at mid 90’s.

j-ox
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j-ox

Rain…PLEASE!