Number of Hot Days in a Holding Pattern

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good Saturday bloggers,

We have had some great summer weather and it will continue through the weekend before we see some changes. Highs this weekend will be around 90° which is average for this time of year. The humidity will be increasing Sunday. The weather looks great for all outdoor activities, just use the sunscreen if your outdoor activity is during the day. There is the outdoor Music festival, Chiefs Training camp, the Royals game and the lantern festival at Brush Creek just to name a few events.

This summer has been rolling along without much heat. How many days have we been 95° or higher this year compared to last year? You may be or may not be surprised. We had three times more days over 95° last season including one day, July 12th, which reached 100°.

There are no signs of high heat as we are seeing a pattern shift.

The main jet stream is flowing along the USA-Canadian border where it is normally found this time of year. An upper level high, also known as an anticyclone, or “heat wave creating machine” is suppressed deep in the southwest USA. There are no big signs this is headed to the Plains. There are countless summer monsoon disturbances rotating around the high. The pattern the next 5-7 days will be conducive to seeing some of these disturbances track northeast towards Wyoming and South Dakota before turning southeast across Nebraska, eastern Kansas and western sections of Iowa and Missouri. This puts us in a zone where we will have several chances of rain and thunderstorms over the course of the next week.

SATURDAY: Today will be partly to mostly sunny and hot with the humidity still in check. There will be a 10-20 mph breeze from the south.

SUNDAY: It will be another hot day with the humidity increasing and more wind from the south at 15-25 mph. Lows will be in the 60s to around 70°. The first disturbance to monitor will be heading into Nebraska with a cold front.

SUNDAY NIGHT: The front and disturbance will move across the region bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some locations will see a few drops, others will see .50″ to 1″.

MONDAY: Any showers and thunderstorms will end early in the morning, leading to a nice summer day with highs in the 80s. It will still be humid as the drier air is lagging behind the front.

TUESDAY: This is when the pattern become more interesting. The front from Monday will head south, but on its west end it will stall and waver from western Nebraska to Arkansas. We will be on the cooler side with highs in the 80s, lower humidity and increasing clouds. The clouds will be increasing as the next monsoon disturbance heads this way. It will be 100° or higher southwest of the front, setting up a temperature gradient zone in our region, as the disturbances track southeast parallel to the front and gradient. BTW, lows Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

WEDNESDAY: There is an increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms as a monsoon disturbance tracks overhead. This would lead to a rainy day with highs in the 70s. If there is more rain, highs may only be in the 60s near the center of the area of rain and thunderstorms. We could see a widespread 1″ rain event if not more. We will have more on this in Sunday. The high heat will come close into south central Kansas. There is no sign the high heat makes it here as another disturbance is due in at the end of next week. So, our days of 95° or higher will be in a holding pattern.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

9
Leave a Reply

avatar
6 Comment threads
3 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
8 Comment authors
Mike HAndrew HKurtKurtJhwk95 Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Thanks for another great writeup Jeff !! But ok, this is the 3rd time you hint at high heat coming back. The first 2 times you stated “no high heat for awhile.” This time “95 or higher will be in a holding pattern.” So why can’t you just come out and say the high heat will return 🤔😁 Also it looks like the 100/80 % chance of rain for a this Sunday night / Monday that Gary had last week is now next to nothing. Mother nature’s gonna do what she’s gonna do !! 😁 but, in fairness, in his… Read more »

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Flip back to wet, love weekly rains in my plants and yard. Too dry up here and everything needs a good drink. I enjoy frequent rains as long as nothing floods. And corn and beans around here and pastures need a good soaking rain.

I’d enjoy an lrc where we get 40 plus inches of rain, would be nice to get more than 30 inches in a year, been several years since St Joseph saw that much in a year

Jhwk95
Guest
Jhwk95

Gary,

Can you give me an idea of what the temperatures will be like in St. Louis on the dates of 08/08 through 08/12. Headed to Six Flags with my kids and don’t want to melt. Thank you!

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Give it up. Gary won’t answer your 2nd attempt asking for this. And Jeff NEVER answers questions.

Mike H
Guest
Mike H

Temps will be in the low 90s with pop up storms possible

Big j
Guest
Big j

This weather has been nice . Unfortunately got 1.5” early this week but hoping for nice dry weather for a few more weeks at least. Oct thru June was miserable, so hoping to keep it nice.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Here’s to another foot of rain region wide so everyone can get out an mow more smiley face

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Aloha from Oahu day 3! The weather doesn’t change much around here and it has been awesome! A few mid afternoon misty showers daily which is no big deal since you’re already wet from the ocean! The rainbows have been vivid and a daily occurrence. Had a great fireworks display on Waikiki Beach last night. Hope KC gets the rain it needs. I am watching it to see how it develops from afar!

Ben
Guest
Ben

Nice write up Jeff. Hopefully these hold together and bring some nice rain to the area. The crops are using a lot of water at this point