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Good morning,

A large complex of thunderstorms was moving the Nebraska/Iowa border into northern Iowa this morning.  A little band of thunderstorms was moving into northeastern Kansas on the leading edge of the high heat at 7:30:

The thin line of thunderstorms is associated with the leading edge and the beginning of the heat wave.  A Kansas City Heat Wave is defined to be three consecutive days where the high temperature reaches 95° of higher.  This is likely going to happen today through Saturday, and possibly Sunday.  By Sunday there will be a chance of thunderstorms, and we will have to see where the fronts and outflow boundaries line up. Some models have 2-4 inches of rain near KC and others have 0 to 0.25″ of rain near KC.   We will look deeper into this summer cold front and chance of rain in the next few days.

Have a great Wednesday!

Gary

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KS JonesL.Bf00dl3GaryREAL HUMEDUDE Recent comment authors
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KS Jones
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KS Jones

The Euro forecast shows this general area might get only 1/8 inch of rain in the next ten days.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/acc-total-precipitation/20190727-1200z.html

L.B
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L.B

I do have to chuckle at some of the comments about a bad winter. It was a fairly normal winter. I didnt like it much but it was normal. Now we are in summer and it has not been all that hot, yea the hummidity is a bear but, its pretty much normal! Spring was wet but the corn and beans got in and are doing fair to well, sure do not see any signs here in KS of climate change

f00dl3
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f00dl3

The fact the storms are riding over the dome shows maybe the “trough that won’t move” actually may cause us to have a drought the rest of summer if the trough actually focuses as the edge of the anticyclone and where it is positioned now means we bake, while St Louis gets flooding rainfall.

Oddly enough today’s storm pattern is very similar to last August/September.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The air temperatures at the Lawrence & Manhattan airports hit 100° at 4 PM.
https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KLWC.html

blue flash
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blue flash

Just enough to spot the car…

Kurt
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Kurt

Rained about 10 minutes at work, nothing at my house split around to north and south wasn’t expecting it to rain today anyway and had sprinklers running on yard last night. Move sprinkler water repeat status quo for forseeable future and not counting on any rain with the cool down either. Just the way it seems to go when we dry out up here.

MattinLV
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MattinLV

Mild thunder up here in leavenworth. Such a small cell on its way but the clouds are great right now

Jan
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Jan

Is that definition of a heat wave your definition or does the national weather service consider that a heat wave?

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Finally – great pool and lake weather.

Brittany
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Brittany

Woooo yay clouds! Block out the sun!

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Will that small line hold together long enough to rain in St.Joe?
I’m hoping it does, but totally expect it to fall apart right on their doorstep. That’s just what it’s been doing up there lately!

Nate
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Nate

As disgusting as it is, I’ll still take it over winter

Three7s
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Three7s

I’ll take winter every day of the week over this.

DustinTheWind
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DustinTheWind

I’m with you Nate. I’ll gladly take heat indices of 120 over what we had this winter.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

No difference , miserable is miserable. Like your choice of a poopsicle , or turd sandwich?
You aren’t going to be happy with either selection!

L.B
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L.B

first time I’ve agreed with you

MattinLV
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MattinLV

Here we go! This is going to be nasty but it is summer. After last winter I am not going to complain about this heat.

Question. Is there a way to kind of forecast what this fall and winter temps will look like? Is it too early to predict that? Colder than or warmer than average?

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Gary was this 5 day heat wave predicted months ago ? Asking for a friend. 😁

C.C
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C.C

It’s July I could have predicted this heat wave

Roger
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Roger

I responded the same way a couple of days ago. I “knew” we would have a heat wave, despite Heat Miser’s “thought” comment. These are “the dog days of summer”!!!

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Do you think seasonal differences are going to keep the rain to our north until the next cycle of the LRC? And if this does happen, will the continued heat eventually bake the moisture out and cause the next cycle of the LRC to not have as much low level moisture to work with and possibly start to cause highs to form where highs were not and lows to form further north or south where low level moisture is more prevalent – possibly due to where mesolows and ridging developed during the last cycle offset by 400 miles north? If… Read more »

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Took me some time to actually work out what you meant! I guess it’s possible.

I’m really curious about how much patterns influence each other, if at all. We ended on the “two cold days” part of the 17-18 pattern, and we’ve had a very cold and wet pattern (mostly). This year’s LRC ends either just before or during the “four hot days” part of the pattern, so will that have an influence on 19-20?

Steve
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Steve

Bring on the Fall & Winter!!! Can always dress warm for those Seasons. But I can’t get naked enough for these summer temperatures to get cool!!!!

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Gary, a lot of models recognize the influence of El Nino in their extended forecast, global temperatures appear to be above average everywhere on the globe, and some model forecasts are for much above average temps for most of the globe thru the end of the year. Obviously the LRC would contradict this for our area, do you have confidence we will see below average temps for the rest of the LRC on average? I suppose this heat wave will return in 48 days, but by then the LRC is beginning it’s change as we get into early September. Another… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Keith – sounds like you are describing the “intertropical convergence zone”. That area is a constant Thunderstorm formation zone, so while its always wet there it has a high average precip rate but not sure how wet it has to be to be classified as above average for those areas.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Yes Hume thank you, that’s the right term I couldn’t think of, and yes I was referring to whether that area has even more robust activity than average in recent years.
Found the answer: “Satellite observations and reanalysis data show a narrowing and strengthening of precipitation in the ITCZ over recent decades in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, but little change in ITCZ location”

Jim
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Jim

If only there were some way to predict future weather based on previous weather that could give you some guidance. Reacting to model runs is what everyone else does. Guess not.

Brittany
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Brittany

Bring on October.

Johnny
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Johnny

This is worst time of the year, upper 90s, hot, miserable, still month away from football.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I’m already looking forward to September.

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

Or even better October