Barry Update and Interesting 10 Day Rainfall Forecast

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Good Sunday bloggers,

Barry is now moving north at about 5 mph through western Louisiana. Fortunately, the heaviest rain has stayed offshore, so the flooding is not as bad as it could have been. Now, heavier rain is starting to move inland, but the heaviest is still offshore. As of 7 AM Sunday rainfall amounts were around 1″ in New Orleans with the 10″ to 15″ amounts offshore.

Weather Track Radar as of 7:09 AM shows the heavier rain bands now moving into southern Louisiana. So, they will not see the 10″ to 20″ amounts down there, but will still see 5″ to 10″. This will cause flooding issues.

Will eastern Kansas and western Missouri see an influence from Barry? Yes, but it will be a small impact. Barry will be in northwest Arkansas Monday morning, moving into southern Missouri by Monday night then heading east into the Ohio river valley Tuesday. You can see the rain is mostly on the eastern side of the circulation, so we will experience a glancing blow, and it starts today.

SUNDAY: We talked about this yesterday. A large area of rain cooled air from Barry will track from south to north, creating a large outflow boundary, or pseudo cold front. We will rise into the low 90s ahead of this front. Along the leading edge of the rain cooled air we will see numerous and thick cumulus clouds and some will become cumulonimbus clouds. So, after 1-2 PM until around 7-8 PM there is the chance for a brief shower or thunderstorm as they track from southeast to northwest. If it rains, it may be heavy and last for 2-10 minutes. Hopefully, your yard or farm sees rain as there is not much in the forecast the next 7-10 days.

MONDAY: We will see periods of clouds with highs in the 80s. A shower or thunderstorm may sneak in from the east. It will be cooler with scattered rain and thunderstorms across central and eastern Missouri as Barry tracks across southern Missouri. It will be mostly sunny and hot to the west across central and western Kansas.

TUESDAY: Barry will begin to head east. We should still see enough influence, in the form of clouds and perhaps a shower, to keep us in the 80s. The heat will be building out west and this will enter Wednesday and stick around for about 7 days.

RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 7-10 DAYS: There will be heavy rain from Arkansas to Ohio and all points southeast as Barry will be the main influence followed by other small disturbances.  There will be decent rain and thunderstorms along and north of I-80 as a steady flow of fronts and systems track from west to east. There will be an area from southeast Iowa to west TX to the western Plains that see 1″ of rain or less as this area is caught in no mans land and an upper level high grows over the Plains. A front or two may sneak in next weekend into next week bringing a few thunderstorms, but overall, these will not be much. We are expecting rain chances to increase around here after the 25th.

A Sprinkler Warning remains in effect if you want to keep the yard green.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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Big J
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Big J

Excellent. Glad to see predictions of Barry were overstated. And loving this dry weather. The grass is finally slowing down. The zero turn isn’t leaving muddy tracks and the boating on Smithville Lake, which has fallen back to normal levels is great. Here’s to more hot dry weather!! For the first time in 120 days the water table is returning to normal.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

The heat wave appears to roughly correspond to the lengthy dry stretch in April.

Three7s
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Three7s

Yeah, this period is the dry part of the pattern, and this hot/dry stretch right before cycle 7 makes perfect sense in this LRC.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

The problem is if cycle 7 dries up due to lack of LRC influance and our soil moisture being baked out by this dry stretch, then we won’t have substantial rain until October.

Are we 100% sure we wil get the return of the wet 4 day 6″+ rain storm? I think not. Jet stream is weakening and each day that goes by our low level moisture is going bye bye.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

It won’t dry up. There’s so much moisture here it’s ridiculous. Even with the “”lower humidity”” we’ve had for a few days, my windows still fog up every evening. The dry stretch will return us to normal, not bake all of it out. Cycle 7 is a cold cycle. As the jet stream begins to come south, we might see a return of moisture. I’m expecting something like August 2017 this August. Note though that the “cycle-starting storm” tends to take on the characteristics of the cycle that comes before it, so don’t be surprised if the first event seems… Read more »

Big J
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Big J

Rock on, no rain till October!!

Jobu
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Jobu

But Gary says April wasn’t dry. I asked the question on the blog in May about July and he said it wasn’t dry.

Roger
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Roger

Exactly. April was wet for 1 day. Not a wet month in my opinion.

Roger
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Roger

I always knew we would have a heat wave this year, despite all the data that said otherwise. At least 5 days in a row forecasted to have high temperatures from 100-105 here in central and western Kansas this week. The grass will definitely become dormant until maybe our next significant rain in two weeks or so.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

I think you meant you always “thought” we would have a heat wave. You wouldn’t “know”, unless you have a working crystal ball?

Roger
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Roger

“Dog days of summer” buddy. Happens every year. Maybe not for you guys in KC because you never reach 100 degrees there.

Ted in STJoe
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Ted in STJoe

Good no rain here or upstream of any real amount. But need a 1’2 inches.

Johnny
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Johnny

I’m over the yard now, I’ll just let it turn brown

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary and Jeff: Happy Sunday to both of you!! As stated above…yes Jeff thanks for the great write up!! Looks like time for some Mungo Jerry and Lovin’ Spoonfull; In the Summertime and Summer in the City!! 🙂 Good ole summer time in Eastern Kansas!!! This is very reminiscent of December 8th-January 15th where this area only had 1.5 inches of precip(from one storm) and was very warm overall. The farmers here are actually thankful as it is finally dry enough for them to really cut the hay. Of course we could use a drink but that is a pretty… Read more »

Jobu
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Jobu

Nice write-up Jeff.