Tracking Barry, Possible Impact in Kansas City

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Good Saturday bloggers,

We are in for a typically hot and dry July day as we track Barry. Barry as of early Saturday morning was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Barry may become a category 1 hurricane before it makes landfall later today. Barry may very well have an impact in our area.

SATURDAY: It will be a mostly sunny and hot day with a light south to southeast wind at 5-10 mph. This is great pool weather, just wear sunscreen and stay hydrated, drinking plenty of water.

SUNDAY: Barry will continue to move northwest, likely near the southwest Arkansas, northwest Louisiana border.  We will see highs 90°-95°, but look at the graphic closely. You can see an arcing line of showers and a few thunderstorms from Atlanta, to near St. Louis, to Kansas City to Oklahoma City to west of Dallas. This is being caused by a huge outflow boundary from Barry. Rain cooled air is surging north, creating a cold front like feature from the south. This would bring us a brief shower/thunderstorm and a temperature drop to the low 80s. We will have to see how this evolves tomorrow.

MONDAY MORNING: Barry will be moving north through Arkansas with heavy rain down there. We will see a few clouds and have a nice start to the work week with lows around 70°.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: There is some data that has Barry moving into southwest Missouri. This would bring thicker clouds to our area and perhaps a shower or thunderstorm. We would see highs in the 70s or drop from the 80s to 70s during the day. If Barry is more in southeast Missouri, we will see highs around 90° with a few clouds.

MONDAY NIGHT: On this data, look how close Barry is to KC. Heavy rain covers the eastern 2/3 of MO. We will watch this closely as the track could shift 50-100 miles farther west or east. Since we are on the edge, any shift will make a big difference in our weather.

Here is the rainfall forecast through Wednesday as it stands now. It is very much Barry dependent. At this time we would see a trace west of KC to around .25″ to .50″ east of KC. Again, any track shift west or east will have an impact on the forecast.

It seems ridiculous to say we need rain and issue a sprinkle warning as we are around 13″ above average rain for the year. But, some locations have not seen much rain in 3 weeks and the topsoil can dry out fast this time of year. So, it takes 1″ to 2″ of rain per week to keep the yard green during the summer around here. If we don’t see rain from Barry, it looks mostly dry the next 7-10 days. Our next chance for a wet pattern to set up is after July 25th.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

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DontworryboutmeKathyKurtHeat Miserf00dl3 Recent comment authors
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Kathy
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Kathy

I wish that on every 10:00 newscast, you would tell us what the current day’s high temperature was. Surprising how rarely that info is given.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Guess the trough moved

ArvadaBoy
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ArvadaBoy

Hello Jeff- can you reference other past parts of this cycle that had this long of a dry spell?

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Yikes, 80-degree lows in the forecast! So much for the cool summer. Kansas City’s summers are definitely warming and stabilizing. Consistently hot with no breaks, but never hitting 100. That has been the story of summer here since 2015.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Take a chill pill. 😉
It’s still better than last year where we went from cold / snow in April to using a.c. on May 1. We have only had a handful of 90’s up until this week. Dry and hot is better than humid 80’s-90’s, ( to some) but still I won’t complain. Even if it stays hot until Sept. This years LRC says it won’t.

Bob
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Bob

Oh yeah. All the great scientists and climatologists measure long term temperature patterns based on four years of data. Kansas City is basically Dallas now.

come on summer
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come on summer

lived here all my life, this is just Kansas. nothing seems all that different to me. Except people being extreme, not so much the weather

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Actually, we have had a cool summer so far, esp. in June. We have also had cool summers here before. So you comments are nonsense.

Kurt
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Kurt

I think there is some validity that overall low temps have been warming over the summer, but that’s typically from more humid air. We’ve had hotter summers, just seems like these weather patterns are more extreme with one area extremely wet next to an area that’s only average or extremely dry. There doesn’t seem to be as much in average or the media sensationalism plays into perceptions On another note I was reading an ag magazine and my area of northwest Missouri is at 118 percent of average precipitation year to date. Kansas City area, one county south is at… Read more »

Dontworryboutme
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Dontworryboutme

Your bat shit crazy it was 100 before july last year!

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

The Wunderground forecast for the area is showing really hot temps the latter half of the week.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The Euro predicts 100+° highs Wednesday (7/17) through Monday (7/22), which is roughly 12° above average for KC.
This area north of Manhattan is predicted to hit 104° on Wednesday.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/temperature-f/20190717-2100z.html

j-ox
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j-ox

On average, these are the hottest days of our regional Summer(s).

Three7s
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Three7s

I would sure love the temperature drop Barry would give us.