Good Saturday bloggers,
We are in for a typically hot and dry July day as we track Barry. Barry as of early Saturday morning was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Barry may become a category 1 hurricane before it makes landfall later today. Barry may very well have an impact in our area.
SATURDAY: It will be a mostly sunny and hot day with a light south to southeast wind at 5-10 mph. This is great pool weather, just wear sunscreen and stay hydrated, drinking plenty of water.
SUNDAY: Barry will continue to move northwest, likely near the southwest Arkansas, northwest Louisiana border. We will see highs 90°-95°, but look at the graphic closely. You can see an arcing line of showers and a few thunderstorms from Atlanta, to near St. Louis, to Kansas City to Oklahoma City to west of Dallas. This is being caused by a huge outflow boundary from Barry. Rain cooled air is surging north, creating a cold front like feature from the south. This would bring us a brief shower/thunderstorm and a temperature drop to the low 80s. We will have to see how this evolves tomorrow.
MONDAY MORNING: Barry will be moving north through Arkansas with heavy rain down there. We will see a few clouds and have a nice start to the work week with lows around 70°.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: There is some data that has Barry moving into southwest Missouri. This would bring thicker clouds to our area and perhaps a shower or thunderstorm. We would see highs in the 70s or drop from the 80s to 70s during the day. If Barry is more in southeast Missouri, we will see highs around 90° with a few clouds.
MONDAY NIGHT: On this data, look how close Barry is to KC. Heavy rain covers the eastern 2/3 of MO. We will watch this closely as the track could shift 50-100 miles farther west or east. Since we are on the edge, any shift will make a big difference in our weather.
Here is the rainfall forecast through Wednesday as it stands now. It is very much Barry dependent. At this time we would see a trace west of KC to around .25″ to .50″ east of KC. Again, any track shift west or east will have an impact on the forecast.
It seems ridiculous to say we need rain and issue a sprinkle warning as we are around 13″ above average rain for the year. But, some locations have not seen much rain in 3 weeks and the topsoil can dry out fast this time of year. So, it takes 1″ to 2″ of rain per week to keep the yard green during the summer around here. If we don’t see rain from Barry, it looks mostly dry the next 7-10 days. Our next chance for a wet pattern to set up is after July 25th.
Have a great weekend.