Looking Back At Yesterday & Looking Into Developing Tropical Storm Barry

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Good morning bloggers,

Last night on 41 Action News (KSHB.com) I discussed the “blown forecast” from yesterday mornings line of thunderstorms.  Did we really blow it?  I would say yes and no.  It is a big yes because I downplayed it the night before, and the other weather forecast outlets and our team didn’t Nowcast very well at 2 to 4 AM when it was rather obvious it had a high chance of moving into KC. Watch:

Now, I was up early, and started the blog with a NOWCAST of us watching the area heading to KC.  Since we had been being missed as of late, I wondered if this thunderstorm complex would follow the fate of the other ones.  Well, it didn’t and my own personal Nowcasting narrowed in on this making it to KC only around two hours before it hit. Then, one thunderstorm blew up and intensified, bowed out over the city with high winds and power outages.  So, it just made it stand out more.  When thunderstorms are moving in from the northwest at this time of the year, you have to have a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, and then do your best at Nowcasting.  Does that make sense?

Tropical Storm Barry:

Barry is forming today, and it doesn’t have a lot of time to intensify.  Barry will be strengthening as it turns into Louisiana.  Now, Barry isn’t even “Barry” yet.  The storm needs to have 35 knot winds organized around the center for it to become a named storm, and the National Hurricane Center will likely name Barry tonight.

Barry will have to track farther west than that cone shown here for any significant impacts near the KC region.  Right now, it appears the track will be towards southeast Missouri.  The impact will be in the form of high pressure and sinking air, which is bringing us a dry stretch for a few days.

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the blog this morning. Have a great day!

Gary

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Adam
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Adam

A new scientific study could bust wide open deeply flawed fundamental assumptions underlying controversial climate legislation and initiatives such as the Green New Deal, namely, the degree to which ‘climate change’ is driven by natural phenomena vs. man-made issues measured as carbon footprint. Scientists in Finland found “practically no anthropogenic [man-made] climate change” after a series of studies. “During the last hundred years the temperature increased about 0.1°C because of carbon dioxide. The human contribution was about 0.01°C”, the Finnish researchers bluntly state in one among a series of papers. This has been collaborated by a team at Kobe University… Read more »

Adam
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Adam
Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

???

Do you not realize that your article says nothing about your claim? Among other things, the phenomenon in your article talks about changes occurring over thousands of years or more. AGW is only in the last 100-200 years.

Fred Souder
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Fred Souder

Adam, I am not convinced that the Svensmark hypothesis is strong. It seems to me that there are already plenty of nuclei to foment condensation of water and ice. Plus, when the world gets colder, it also gets windier and dustier, which would add still more condensation nuclei. I think the alternate hypothesis, that GCR’s (galactic cosmic rays) modulate the height of the stratosphere which in turn influences the jet stream pattern, might have a little more credence. Basically, it states that High GCR’s cause more meridianal flow, while low GCR’s cause more zonal flow. Having said this, there is… Read more »

Mike H
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Mike H

I got an online degree from Kobe University. BA Steakology

f00dl3
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f00dl3

A scientific study is nothing more than a scientist’s opinion. I hate to make this analogy, but just like the LRC – I mean yeah, it may be there, but until the study is widely accepted by the scientific community, you won’t hear about it in Mainstream Media.

Ted in STJoe
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Ted in STJoe

Hot and dry with cracks appearing in the soil already 8/10 more days of dry and hotter weather.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Despite the fact D0 is not drought in some people’s books it is a very significant sign that something has changed with the LRC being able to produce at the surface.

JoeK
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JoeK

foodl3,

In my opinion, nothing has changed with the LRC. This was expected based on the weak jet stream and seasonal influences. I believe it will return to very wet conditions the last cycle. Look back into previous LRC years and you will see the same type of behavior.

Spooky
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Spooky

D0 (Dee-zero) classification is NOT drought. Just ask mower Mikey or farmer Humey. Doesn’t count as drought.

Makes sense, as the July 2018-June 2019 was the wettest in recorded history.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Gary, Interesting observation on Barry. The EURO shows it making landfall further west towards Lake Charles, while the GFS has shown it shifting to the east over the last couple of runs. Latest run has it coming ashore south of Lafayette. Depending on where it makes landfall and moves inland will definitely have a huge impact on where the heavier rainfall hits. The heavier rainfall happens on the east side of the low. New Orleans, and in particular the Mississippi River cannot handle 10-15 inches of rain. In addition, due to the storm surge pushing up river, this will probably… Read more »

craig
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craig

12z GFS total rainfall continues to target NOLA
comment image

Johnny
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Johnny

Kansas looks a tad dry

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The Euro predicts it will stay that way until July 20th. Then they show we might get a bit of rain on the 21st.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/acc-total-precipitation/20190721-0000z.html

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Barry now is an official Tropical Storm. Time for weather dudes to go down to the bayou and stand outside in the wind and rain so they can inform the viewer that the storm is producing strong winds and rain.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

I think we all would like to see some comparative charts on how the weather atmosphere today compares to previous cycles, and what exactly is the difference…I know the seasonal difference. But with the NAO, AO, and even then PNA being negative or mostly negative over this summer, one would think we would get some storms digging over the central part of the nation and bringing down abundant cool fronts. Of course I said it during the winter, we didn’t have a lot of monster storms, just light precip often.

Ben
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Ben

We’re headed for drought in north MO. No rain in 18 days here and 90 plus degrees. It’s not as bad as last year but could be headed that way. This is the problem with long range forecasting. Every season is different. 49 days ago we were getting pounded with rain after rain and now nothing in the summer version. I believe in the cycle but it’s frustrating to understand

Roger
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Roger

I’m always concerned about drought. This wet season is just an aberration. I think the weather pattern will revert back to drought fast. Too much rain in short periods of time does not soak into the ground as much as runoff. I’m very concerned about the lower Mississippi River Belt though. Just like I said 2 days ago. This will be made into a gigantic national headline.

Ben
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Ben

Oh it will get wet again I’m sure….In September when the crops are already burnt to a crisp

Roger
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Roger

65% chance that NW Missouri (St. Joe and Kurt) get classified to D0 on Drought Monitor in 2 weeks.

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

I bet its sooner than that! We need a rain bad. Wish we could have just a little bit of May back!
Michael

Roger
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Roger

I’ll raise it to 100% if you guys bake in the mid to upper 90s next week.

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

LOL! No Kidding!
Michael

JPkadak
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JPkadak

Gary, we have girls trip to Hermann, Mo the weekend of July 19th, some apps are saying 107 that weekend… will it really be that hot?

Three7s
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Three7s

I’m partially hoping that the tropical system comes our way just so it won’t be quite as hot, though I definitely understand why some wouldn’t want it, especially down south. Talk about a lose/lose situation.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Less than 2 weeks until training camp starts, 16 weeks until Halloween, 20 weeks until Thanksgiving, just under 24 weeks until Christmas and roughly 13 weeks until the new LRC begins its first cycle. Not much going on with the weather the next several days so might as well discuss other things. It does feel nice out this morning. It’s a nice break from the heat and humidity. Next week it appears we will have some of the hottest air of the season. It will be great pool weather, but will create a lot of stress on lawns and plants.… Read more »

Johnny
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Johnny

I’m absolutely ready for fall weather and football. October is the best month

JoeK
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JoeK

I second that…Good call

Fred Nolan
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Fred Nolan

This hot weather with the humidity is why I pick zero degree weather over the 90 degree with 65% humidity.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

How about talking about snow in the southern hemisphere?

In my wildest dreams I’d live in KC from about Sept-April and Bariloche, Argentina from May-August:
https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/ar/departamento-de%20bariloche/IDEPARTA74

Inspector
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Inspector

You need a life. Get out of the house.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Merry Christmas in July everyone!

KS Jones
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KS Jones
EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

It wasn’t built below sea level. It was first constructed on the high ground near the river (~23 feet above sea level). When the city expanded, they expanded onto the swampland to the north. This land was also well above sea level at this time, but when they began draining the swamps, the land began shrinking (like how things shrink when they are freeze-dried) and dropped below sea level.

So blame the postwar suburban cookie-cutter neighborhood land developers for being too land-hungry, basically. Not the city’s founders.