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Good morning bloggers,

I am taking Sunny The Weather Dog for a walk at 6:45 AM, and I looked outside and thought, “hmmmm, it looks like thunderstorms may be forming”.  Then, I looked at radar:

And, after the walk, one hour later:

Let’s see how this looks when I get back from my walk at 7:30………

A severe thunderstorm watch had been issued while I was on the walk. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were in effect!  And, the SPC had no risk of severe weather, with the NWS having no mention of this system in their discussion.  And, last night I went 20% chance of rain and downplayed it.

And, here they are.  My 20% chance that I barely kept in there is now 100% in KC at 8:45 AM:

We are tracking these thunderstorms this morning. We will look ahead in our next blog….

Gary

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Jeff
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Jeff

Only 0.03 inches of rain today in Richmond, MO. The North/East outlying part around KC continues to get missed. Since July 3rd only have had 0.56 inches total!

Nick
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Nick

I like how the 3km Nam channeled its inner Micheal Bay and created an 867milibar storm in the Gulf Earlier today, I think it needs to take a pill and relax.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

comment image?d6bae2814897b29aa073b04ad41a56dd

“A severe thunderstorm watch had been issued while I was on the walk. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were in effect!  And, the SPC had no risk of severe weather, with the NWS having no mention of this system in their discussion.”

Skylar
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Skylar

When this weather story was posted (4:14am) there was no severe thunderstorm watch (issued around 6am) and the weather discussion from Topeka indicated that this system would die out as it passed into north central Kansas. The text posted with this graphic, which you left out, indicated the same thing.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

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That forecast was published at 11:17 PM yesterday and updated at 4:14 AM. When it was updated the storm system was already in north-central Kansas, east of Phillipsburg, (the location of which is indicated on the map above). I was up watching the radar at 5 AM and it was fairly obvious the storm wouldn’t die out before it hit here.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

https://www.weather.gov/top/July_10th_Damaging_Thunderstorm_Wind_Gusts
After 5 AM on Wednesday, July 10th, a cluster of severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts moved southeast across portions of north central and northeast Kansas. The worse damage occurred within the southern Washington County near the city of Linn, KS, where many trees were uprooted and electric poles were snapped. Estimated wind speeds across southern Washington County were estimated to be in the 80 MPH to near 100 MPH range.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

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NWS STORM SURVEY
0605 AM, 07/10/2019, LINN, WASHINGTON COUNTY, KS
SEVERAL ELECTRIC POLES SNAPPED IN LINN. ESTIMATED WIND SPEED OF 98 MPH.
2 MILES WSW OF LINN: HARDWOOD TREES UPROOTED. ESTIMATED WIND SPEED OF 94 MPH.

Ted in STJoe
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Ted in STJoe

In STJOE almost no rain and looking at long range it will be dry and hot and start burning up corn and lawns in a week or so.

Johnny
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Johnny

It’s gonna be dry, it’s gonna he hot, and it will last the rest of the summer🍻

f00dl3
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f00dl3

It made it alright. Was on a 13.4 mi run in Independence, waited the storm out in a auto shop. Hurricane like winds and lots of scattered tree damage.

Three7s
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Three7s

Every time you mention your runs/bike rides, I keep imagining you training for the Olympics or something, hahah.

Jhawk95
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Jhawk95

Why do we need to know the mileage of the run? LOL

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Showing off lol.
I would be a dead man after 2 or 3 miles, and if not actually dead my knees and hips would be murdered. Impressive though, that’s dedication to get in that shape

craig
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craig

If this Barry-related rainfall forecast verifies, needless to say it would be pretty bad news for New Orleans…
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Troy
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Troy

Looks like the GFS is close to New Orleans but the Euro has been farther West. It seems the idea is that is would become a bigger hurricane the further West it tracks as it would stay over water longer. Some models still have it coming up our way but there is a big spread.

Ted in STJoe
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Ted in STJoe

EURO was most accurate on hurricanes last season. Let’s seewhat happens this season.

Troy
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Troy

Latest Euro moved East closer to the GFS model right over New Orleans.

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

I thought New Orleans fixed their levy system since Katrina to withstand a hurricane..didn’t they? If so, they should be fine…they have good ways of pumping water out of the city. They were fine with Katrina until they realized the levies failed.

L.B
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L.B

It was the storm surge after the hurricane that got new Orleans. No levies can withstand that. Yea they can pump it better than anyone else but if you think it cant happen again your wrong. I was there, should have let a lot of it go back to the gulf

Dave in Independence
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Dave in Independence

finished with 3.93 inches in my location in independence. that was an intense little guy, winds probably gusted up to 60-65 at least. power almost went out a couple times.

Three7s
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Three7s

It was insane in Independence! I work on the Square and the power went out for a good 2 hours here.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Gerard just reported that the storm in the gulf will not provide precipitation to KC. He has it turning north more quickly than some of the models. Guess watering the lawn and plants will be necessary for at least the next two weeks.

Jaxon - Shawnee
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Jaxon - Shawnee

Gary —

DO you still think the tropical system won’t mature into Barry, a tropical storm or hurricane?

The NHC sure thinks it will.

The Euro draws the center right up to KC by around Tuesday/Wednesday!

Tim in Lone Jack
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Tim in Lone Jack

The environment around this storm actually supports higher than normal rapid intensification beyond 24 hours. Given the time frame before landfall– anywhere from a TS to a Major Hurricane are still clearly all on the table.

matt
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matt

No way Major Hurricane already had one New Orleans.

Tim in Lone Jack
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Tim in Lone Jack

My Question to Gary– isn’t this rooted from the upper level portion of remnants of Hurricane Alvin last week?

Jordan
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Jordan

Damn, that one definitely made it. Foot, meet mouth.

A1hoops
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A1hoops

what happened to being in the part of the cycle where we were under the “trough that doesnt move”?

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Seasonal differences I guess :S It’s the same but different.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

It seems like it may be possible to interpret today as the recurrence of the precipitation events that caused the November 8 and February 15 snowfalls.

Those both had several cold days after them, and another precipitation event ~4 days later. So we’ll see if we get another “surprise” storm around Sunday.

Farmgirl
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Farmgirl

Gary, how confident are you it will turn dry the next 5 days or so? We need to get hay cut and with this latest round of heavy rain we are going to have to wait until maybe Saturday to start cutting. Other folks have said the ground is so saturated and humidity so high that it is taking up to 3 days to cure. I was hoping it wouldn’t rain today, but I knew the minute I stepped outside this morning that we were in for another rain event…Building clouds and humidity. It was fascinating to watch to the… Read more »

craig
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craig

The latest on what will soon be “Barry”. You might note that the NHC has shifted the cone a bit more west and northwest.
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Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Looks like I am just outside the northern edge of the heavy rain. Received a lot of wind but certainly not near 60mph and no hail, but the rain thus far has been next to nothing. Less than a tenth from the earlier rain and this so far, looks like downtown KC has had over an inch. I am not sure why my area was included in the severe thunderstorm warning. It’s days like today that the overuse of a severe storm warning will cause people to let their guard down in the future. The boy who cried wolf comes… Read more »

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

We did ok here in south central liberty

Big J
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Big J

Agreed on the warnings. They aren’t very accurate.

steve p
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steve p

oh yea it made it all right to near Zona! we dropped 14F and got 0.71″ in 30 minutes. now lets hope it dries out, the cloud cover stays and we get some high pressure in here for a few days.

Jeremy
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Jeremy

To answer the question. YES! It made it!

Big J
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Big J

They made er to KC and south but we are blessed, went just south of Smithville. Love it. Just some sprinkles and a nice show off the deck to the south.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Very windy now. Gonna be a lot of downed trees and branches with this one.

DustinTheWind
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DustinTheWind

This is the hardest I’ve seen rain fall this entire year!
Looks like we’re gonna get a week’s worth in 45 minutes. I’ll take it.

Spooky
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Spooky

Wow. Humey bitching about the weather again. Shocker!

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Hi Spooky!
Did It ever occur to you that I am trolling you vs other way around? Getting under your skin is way too easy, you might try thickening that skin up a little you’re sort of a snowflake buddy.

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

lol

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

That’s a needle-threader if I’ve ever seen one! http://i.imgur.com/VYCv6A6_d.jpg

Ross (N. Overland Park)
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Ross (N. Overland Park)

I’d say this one made it. (To answer the headline) Holy wind gusts and heavy rain batman.

Three7s
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Three7s

Amazing how stupid people are. I’m sitting here at work watching this thing get started and I see someone flying around on a motorcycle.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Amazing…..there is a dry notch in the blow off rainshield….right over St.Joseph. It is refusing to rain there and in NW MO in general. The shadow has become entrenched

Kurt
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Kurt

Frustrated and not sure why it isn’t filling in, but dissipating as it reaches St. Joseph. At least I have plenty of city water to use on my yard and gardens and don’t have crops that need a drink.

Troy
Guest
Troy

Another night of thunderstorms for Republic County. Had a large tree uprooted and some green snap in the corn with 70 mph winds last night. Quite a bit of tree damage in this county. Flooding again with 1.30 and now 6.5 inches in the last week. In Nebraska just to my NW some spots have had 10 inches this week.

A1hoops
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A1hoops

pretty good gust front blowing thru leawood right now. winds around 50 mph

Psychotic Aardvark
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Psychotic Aardvark

In Lansing, KS we have had very heavy rain with some pretty good winds and hail slightly under quarter size.

Craig
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Craig

That was a fantastic, dynamic roll cloud out here in W Lenexa.

Jhawk95
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Jhawk95

Can you post pictures? Thanks

craig
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craig

Didn’t take any as I was too busy ogling.
It was terrific, though. You could actually see the condensation as it was rolling up into the cloud.
Very cool to watch.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

What the heck? This wasn’t predicted at all. Was it?

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Had a brief shower come through about 15 minutes ago. It was enough to make the grass and pavement wet. Was a pretty good shower for 5 minutes, then moderate for another 5 minutes, then gone. Waiting to see what else may come.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

If what we got is any indication, you had better hope the storm doesn’t hold together as it moves east. The storm hit here (25 miles north of Manhattan) at 6:20 AM with terrific wind. The wind had a high pitched howl that lasted a full hour, and most of the 1/2” of rain that fell came in the first few minutes. Our yard is littered with downed limbs, but nothing major.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

I thought you were exaggerating, but it hit Parkville a bit ago, and you were not!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Severe storms moving into Lawrence now…very cool look front edge.

Jason
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Jason

Sure would be nice if this would blow through and lower our heat and humidity for the day, but I’m guessing that’s a big negative.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Some pretty impressive outflows kicking out of this storm.

Jhawk95
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Jhawk95

FIZZLE alert!

matt
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matt

Yes St. warnings in area

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I guess I’m only one disgusted another storm showed up outta nowhere and models are useless. I can guarantee it hits My area cause I don’t need it. Bah humbug!

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

I have on;y recorded .03″ of rain so far in July up here in Maryville. Getting pretty dry. I imagine if we miss this one, we’ll be in a D-0 drought next week. Ill have to check Drought monitor, but its getting dry. Grass going dormant.already. Have a great day Bloggers!
Michael

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Not too far behind you with only .05 in July and .08 since June 24th. Looks like most of this will miss to my immediate south, not sure why when it was so humid that we can’t get these systems to track further north into areas in and around 36 highway up to the Iowa state line.

C M
Guest
C M

Sure is getting dry up here, and these last two rounds of storms have just been a tease with really no beneficial rain.

Johnny
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Johnny

Tonganoxie split!

Jaxon - Shawnee
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Jaxon - Shawnee

Fascinating complex; especially given that it didn’t appear in any forecast yesterday or last night.

I hope it makes it here!

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I wasn’t even aware of this thing ’till I read this blog.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

And it looks like both the HRRR and 3km NAR are already useless even though it’s maybe an hour or two away.

Skylar
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Skylar

Looking at all the tiny little cells forming around the region should indicate that the environment is staying supportive as long as none of them get too organized on their own. It’s also made the sky really pretty this morning. Hopefully this system won’t bring so much wind damage.

Craig
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Craig

This one has the cold front behind it so I’m going with YES

Craig
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Craig

SPC thinks so, too, as they have just issued a small Severe Thunderstorm Watch for these storms.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0504.html

craig
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craig

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Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Tornado warning for Nemaha and Jackson counties in Kansas. Wow this storm has some punch to it!

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Another storm to watch and see if it falls apart. Maybe I should go out and water, wash the car, and leave the windows down to draw the rain here. It will probably do the old Tonganoxie split. Not much showing up down the road either in the long range forecast. Not going to bank on a tropical storm sending its remnants here.

SnowGoPewPew
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SnowGoPewPew

Please make it! We could use at least an inch of rain.