Just A Weak Area Of Rain Showers

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Good morning bloggers,

If your lawn needed a good drink of water, this mornings band of weak rain showers and a few small thunderstorms may not be able to do it. Rainfall amounts will likely be rather low this morning:

This mornings radar showed a thin band of showers moving in this morning, and it also shows thunderstorms forming over the Gulf of Mexico.  The Gulf is being monitored closely this week for some tropical development.

We were tracking a large area of rain and thunderstorms last night in Nebraska and northwest Kansas and it fell apart as it approached our area this morning. This has been happening quite a bit the last 2-3 weeks for northwest Missouri. It has not been for a lack of rain chances. Look at how much rain has fallen since July 3rd. 2″ to 6″ of rain has fallen from the Dakotas to Nebraska to central, southeast Kansas to southwest Missouri. South and southwest Nebraska has seen an area of 10″ to 15″, while northwest Missouri has seen a trace to .25″. So, if you missed the rain, you will need to water as rain chances are dwindling.

We are now tracking a cold front and potential tropical system.

A cold front will sweep through around noon Wednesday. There will be some showers and thunderstorms along it in Nebraska, but, yes as the front gets close, the thunderstorms will likely dissipate. So, the chance of rain tomorrow is 20% or less, which is hard to believe with all of the heat and humidity out there. It will be a steam bath today and Wednesday with highs near 90° and heat indices around 100°.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A surface high pressure will take control which means great summer weather. It will be mostly sunny, warm, and much less humid. Highs will be 80°-85° with lows in the 60s.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: While we stay dry and become hot there will likely be a tropical system churning in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Its name will be Barry and has a chance to become a hurricane. The end of the weekend into next week it will likely turn north and head into the middle of the USA. Very heavy rain will occur where it tracks. It is very early, but most likely it will track into Arkansas, eastern Missouri and points east, missing our region. There is a slight chance it comes farther west, we will be watching this closely. If we miss the remnants, it could be dry for the next 7-10 days as the fronts stay north.

Have a great rest of your day.

Gary and Jeff

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NoBeachHereEastOfEdenBig JSnow MiserMike H Recent comment authors
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NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

So, over/under that storm not only makes it here but stays together?

But Big J, yes flooding is bad but drought as well. Construction work is dependent on dry weather while a lot of other things are dependent on moisture. While the rain, at times is inconvenient, it’s better overall that we get it but I also like you, do not like a bunch at once.

Big J
Guest
Big J

If you’re ticked because your lawn didn’t get quite enough rain, be thankful you didn’t get the foul 9 inches of rain that Kearney, NE did. They get to deal with some great flooding. They’ll be mowing with air boats.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

It’s a steambath out there right now.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

What if there is no hard cut to the next LRC? What if MCS systems and their associated pressure falls combined with conditional height rises (such as we have seen late) when they are “mixed into” the upper atmosphere through the process of circulating the globe (either 1 or 2 LRC cycles) – get absorbed into the upper levels and cause shifts in storm placement, timing, intensity, and number for the “next” LRC? It is well known that wind patterns traverse layers of the atmosphere at the doldrums, Ferrel, Hadley, and Polar cells. Maybe when surface features are dragged up… Read more »

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

I like where you are going with that but it’s a mess. So much data to look at and compare. I have always imagined that the arctic, and it’s many wheels, just keeps on spinning. Some years the spikes on those wheels are bigger and consistently swing through, other years, not much. It looks to me that this is one of those years where there is no upper flow, nothing to drive any flow. Like the arctic is a tornado that is in a current state of recycling. Remember our flip last year in May. Maybe that just didn’t happen… Read more »

Mike H
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Mike H

f00dl3 My two cents is that the summer solstice begins the tipping point of the beginning of the new pattern and by the fall equinox the new pattern is fully in place. The main driver of the LRC seems to be attached to the ENSO. That is why a year like this one is so predictable. Looking at how last year changed in July and August supports this. I feel like the name ‘LRC’ lacks describing what IT is. What is IT? Is it mother nature? Its always there–it is just easier to read sometimes than others. Harder to read… Read more »

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

It’s definitely something to do with the poles and the easterly and westerly belts. Equatorial climates are simply too random to have any sort of regular cycling pattern, and the areas around the poles are probably too “locked” to have much of a cycling pattern either. It probably also has something to do with polar night. The sun sets at the North Pole at the autumnal equinox. Then, there are about two weeks of twilight before it reaches “full night,” meaning it reaches true night right as the LRC begins in early October. But if this is the cause, why… Read more »

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Also, has anyone looked into at all if there is evidence of cycling patterns in the Southern Hemisphere? If there isn’t a corresponding pattern beginning around April 3 every year there, that has some very interesting implications: – Is there no cycling pattern there? If so, how do we explain the fact that such a pattern is only present in the Northern Hemisphere? – Does the cycling pattern there begin and end at the same time and have the same cycle length as in the Northern Hemisphere? If so, that could, possibly, even imply a non-earthly origin to the LRC,… Read more »

Big J
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Big J

My two cents is computers have a hard time outguessing God. The weather folks have diificulty predicting 12 hours in advance, let alone months in advance.

Spooky
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Spooky

JC, don’t live in a floodplain! How tough is that to understand?

Urbanity
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Urbanity

We had some significant rains around Jun 12-24 time frame. As I recall after our big rains in October-2018 we became very dry for the next 40+ days, I went to Weather Underground and verified that indeed it was relatively dry thru latter half of October and most of November. By using the LRC cycle length of 49 days we could say the Jun 12-24 is a little bit off of the October 6-14th rains, but relatively close. If this cycle is similar to cycle one then we could be mostly dry for July, and as of right now appears… Read more »

Roger
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Roger

From last week. St. Louis broke the Flood of 1993’s record.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fox2now.com/2019/07/01/mississippi-river-smashes-record-for-consecutive-days-at-flood-stage/amp/

Throw in the fact that this tropical system will be moving into the lower Mississippi River basin combined with the drainage upstream, residents need to be extremely prepared and cautious.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Last night’s storm barely moved for many hours while it dumped rain in south-central Nebraska, but when it began drifting east its foreword movement accelerated appreciably, and by the time it reached this area north of Manhattan it had lost intensity and sailed through quickly. We got 0.3” of rain, bringing our July total to 1.8” (so far).

Roger
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Roger

The area I live in south-central Kansas has received very little too since June 22.
Only 0.25-0.75 inches.

Below normal conditions have expanded from west Texas, western and central Oklahoma, parts of south-central, west-central and north-central Kansas, extreme northern Missouri, eastern Nebraska, and southern Iowa. Deficits are 1-3 inches.

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

Gary, could you please provide us with an answer as to why these storms are falling apart on our doorstep.

Nate
Guest
Nate

Check with the guys over at Whiteman

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Uh, no

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I do wonder right now if the drought concern is actually legit. “Seasonal differences” or changes in the lower 1000 feet appears to be causing every storm in this LRC to dry up or fizzle out. It’s not like we even have a anticyclone overhead – the LRC is definately – at least in the upper levels – still in tact. It’s just something has totally changed at the surface causing it to be the “same but different.” I wonder if when these seasonal differences mix to the upper levels if it will actually start to morph the LRC when… Read more »

Roger
Guest
Roger

It looks like NW Missouri is in the rain shadow of the constant Nebraska thunderstorms. Then, overnight storm complexes have formed and dumped and deluged other areas from central Kansas to southwest Missouri.

Big J
Guest
Big J

Sweet, only .1” near Smithville!

John
Guest
John

I am glad that did not rain today. Cannot work outdoors when it rains a lot all day. Do not get paid so the rain can stay away.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Struck out again in Independence

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

KCI recorded 1.09″, wow

WillyInTopeka
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WillyInTopeka

That cannot be accurate. Looking at the radar loop it barely rained there this morning. We got some of the heavier rain here in north Topeka and I had .60 in my rain gauge.

Gary, do you think that reading is accurate? It shows they got an inch of rain between 9-10 AM this morning. The radar loop does not even show much light rain in the area at that time. Bizarre.

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

Anyone have the updated model maps for the gulf storm this weekend? Is it still heading into our area?

JasonA
Guest
JasonA

comment image

Not certain if this will help.

Roger
Guest
Roger

I think residents need to prepare for another catastrophic flood comparable to Hurricane Harvey. These steering currents are massively weak!

Think of all the flooding occurring right now on the Mississippi River! This is targeting that area!

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

So what happened to cause this line to fall apart?

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

Jordan, here we go again. This has been happening quite frequently. I am in Southern Overland Park and having to water my lawn, plus I have sizable cracks in my lawn. We really could use some rain.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Not that I’m saying we’ve been missed as far as rainfall amounts go (not counting the last few forecasted events), it just seems like in regard to severity they’ve reached us in a weakened state. Pretty much every line did that last year, which is why Wyandotte ended up in D3-D4 drought.

Nate
Guest
Nate

Headed for drought

Johnny
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Johnny

Yep, probably wont see more than an inch or two until Sept

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

ROFL

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

hello HEAT

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Still raining in west Parkville.

Big J
Guest
Big J

Love it. Only thing better woukd have been no rain. At least there won’t be any 2” totals as mentioned on the news last night.

WEATHERBY TOM
Guest
WEATHERBY TOM

I’ve had a nice steady rain for the past 30 minutes. Just what my lawn needed.

Big J
Guest
Big J

Love it, the only thing that would have been better is no rain at all.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Hoping this line of showers holds together to give at least a .25”, but it is not looking promising. Can’t wait for the humidity drop on Thursday. That looks refreshing. Probably a good mowing day and the dinner EOI could be a 10.

Just think within 3-4 months, we could have our first snowflakes! But for now, I will enjoy summer and shorts weather.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Topeka got 0.26″ and Lawrence got 0.19″, so it’s possible.