Monitoring The Gulf Of Mexico This Week

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern has suddenly dried out in a few spots near KC.  I was just asked on twitter, “I thought you said the LRC was spot on?  You said we had a wet pattern setting up around a week ago”.  Two things, the LRC is spot on.  The weather pattern is right on schedule.  The forecast I made for July was for KC to have around 5″ of rain this month, and we are way below that number in most of the KC metro area, but isn’t it only July 8th?  And, areas 20 miles east and southeast of the city have had up to 10″ of rain this month already.  Our weather forecasts we have made this season have been incredibly accurate from October until now. We are now in the summer version of the LRC.

Look at this incredible comparison from Cycle 3 to Cycle 6. This year we have been in roughly a 49 day cycle:

February 9 is exactly 49 times 3 cycles ago, or 147 days before July 6.  And, I checked every cycle from cycle 1 through today, and they all line up. This is just the best example to showcase how the pattern is “still the same, but different” as Gary England said ten years ago when he saw this complex puzzle, and then never quite saw it again.  The jet stream is much stronger in February.  Count the number of lines between Florida and southern Canada in each picture.  The is the Order In Chaos!

The Tropics This Week:

The National Hurricane Center is predicting an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days.  The European Model blows the storm up and tracks it towards Texas, then up to Kansas City.  I am not buying this solution at the moment. That would be quite fun for us to track, if that solution were to come close to verifying.  Conditions are favorable for development later this week, and we will begin to narrow in on where this will track.  The LRC suggests a system will be forming over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, and then as heights rise, the conditions do favor a westward movement initially.

European Model Projection From Last Night’s Model:

There is some support for this farther west solution, but the chance of it heading towards KC, which is certainly fun to look at on this map, is quite low.  Let’s see how this looks on today’s model runs.

Between now and then there are one or two chances of rain and a big warm up coming our way.  The next chance of thunderstorms arrives early Tuesday.  A complex of thunderstorms will be forming in Nebraska, near the KS/NE border and we will have to see if it holds together as it heads towards NW Missouri.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog featuring the LRC, the Order In Chaos!  Have a great day!

Gary

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

31
Leave a Reply

avatar
16 Comment threads
15 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
22 Comment authors
GaryTimL.BBig JHeat Miser Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Tim
Guest
Tim

Gary,

Quick question. We are traveling to north central Wisconsin in 2 weeks. Based on the LRC cycle I believe we will have a mostly dry pattern the week of July21-28. Can you confirm this is the most likely pattern? Thanks

Big J
Guest
Big J

Hope they fall apart and miss us. Loving the dry weather. I’ve almost reclaimed the whole yard while mowing and not leaving any tracks. A few showers in October would be fine.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Monday evening!! Just a few random observations on this very typical July day in the Washington Creek Valley. We have received .40 since June 22nd (on which date we received a flooding 5 inches) so it has for sure dried out a bit here. While we only picked up .25 on July 4th it did rain for almost 4 hours so it was very beneficial. While it has dried out the grass here is still growing and everything is very green and lush. I have taken a summer job of maintaining our neighbors 112 acers and am still… Read more »

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Huh. Another line of storms headed this direction that’s forecast to fall apart/significantly weaken on our doorstep again.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

ANOTHER pop up storm rattling the windows at the farm. It’s within 3 or 4 miles but maybe if I hold mouth just right it will bypass my area but looks like Prescott getting another drenching downpour. Any other year I would be praying for it to pay me a visit …… but not this time! I’ve heard thunder now every single day since July 3rd, and it’s rained on all but 1 of those days! Not a dry pattern whatsoever, more like tropical rain forest pattern.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Well La-di-da

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Unless something else pops up, it looks like a miss.
The NWS says we, here out west, could get heavy rain tonight, but there is nothing showing on the radar in this area yet.
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_lite_loop.php

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Storms firing up around Wichita. They are still a long ways away and moving slowly so probably won’t get here, but something to watch at least.

Nate
Guest
Nate

Wow a lot of downvoting,.. lenexagirl must be out for revenge

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Personally, down votes to me are a source of pride.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Me too!!!! I just gave you a negative vote out of respect brother.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I am 100% saturated down here in Vernon Co. It would be a disaster if that tropical system decided to come up this way, we cannot handle any more rain down here. I’ve replaced or fixed the same water gaps over 10 times this summer alone, so sick of this creek flooding and destroying everything every other week. I still have 80% of my hay yet to put up, and its losing nutritional value every day I have to wait. I would gladly trade places with Kurt, not like they are having a drought up there its a dry spell… Read more »

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Hope you get a chance to dry out down there. Just sucks being in a “rain” shadow or what seems to be a rain shadow for parts of the last 3 summers. Just don’t want us to flip back to abnormally dry or D0 or D1 again, we were flirting with that and even D2 and D3 up here last summer. Maybe next year’s LRC will flip us to being too wet up north of I-70 and you can get a drier lrc. Doesn’t seem to work that everyone can have average or consistent rains and well time rains any… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

It’s always feast or famine around these parts in summer. 3 outta 4 years im begging for a rain come mid July, quite rare I’m pleading for a dry spell but here I am. Looks like one is in the forecast, i just need about 5 or 6 days of 90s and sun.

Bob
Guest
Bob

Kurt, It’s not all about you. Your position is fine. Your property isn’t being damaged. Stop whining. Every time you post it’s a complaint.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Yes, Bob it is about me and I’d like more rain. It’s too dry for my liking and I enjoy mowing the yard weekly and having it stay green without running sprinklers. It’s a statement of current facts I don’t see it as a complaint, you can view it however you like and don’t see the need for you to comment. It’s been drier up here compared to other areas and we are no where near a record wet year in Buchanan county. Again a statement of fact. I will be happy when we get more rains up here, all… Read more »

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Furthermore, how would you know my position is fine? Do you live up here? Who made you the authority on if it’s too dry or not? I invested way too much money this spring in new seed and turfy work on my yard to let it die from lack of rain. So I am frustrated I have to drag hoses again when this is supposed to be a wet lrc.

L.B
Guest
L.B

careful what ya wish for Kurt. one extreme kinda turns around for another. Do not wanna have to sell you a boat next year.lol

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

BTW I just noticed on Tropical Tidbits they have a “GFS-Legacy” selection for their global model runs.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Weeee, a hurricane!

Ben
Guest
Ben

This cycle is definitely going to be dryer than the May version but that’s pretty typical for July. It’s been two weeks since we’ve seen any rain in Chillicothe and the corn is just starting pollination so a drink this week would be great. It’s getting dry here but the crops aren’t suffering yet. The long range maps look hot and dry also.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

It certainly doesn’t always equate but am wondering, given that both Europe and Alaska have had extreme heat of late, if we are going to have a very strong heat wave in August particularly within the first two weeks.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It’s drier because this is the warm cycle! Cooler temperatures and rain return around July 27.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Gary, in the winter we had front after front after cold front come through Kansas, I expected we would have consistent “cold” downs even during the summer. We have had humidity levels at mid 80’s or higher for two months or more, and have had temps in the mid/upper 80’s and 90’s since mid June and generally those temps have been around since late May. Not sure what the heat index equates to but has felt like Florida most of the late spring and summer. Now I am in central Kansas so you may have been experiencing a little different… Read more »

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

Definitely not dry in La Cygne. Had another pop up shower yesterday that dumped .35 inch of rain bringing the total since Thursday to 4.95 inches. Yard and pastures are like walking on a sponge and the mud is unbelievable for July. Still have several pastures waiting to hay, but the ground moisture is still pretty high to cure properly. Hoping for a warm, windy dry stretch of weather soon.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Regardless of accuracy of the lrc, disappointed to see it drying out here. I realize not everyone is dry, but I don’t consider one wet period in June that was less than 10 days that brought June above normal to make up for what was dry before that rains in June and now dry again since June 24th. Less and 1/10 of an inch and dry over most of NW Missouri north of Kansas City. I guess I thought we’d have enough rains timed to keep it from getting dry in this lrc. I am skeptical that we will get… Read more »

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

I will be in Florida from July 24-29th, what does the LRC say about tropical development in that area around that time?

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Looks like the overall dry spell will continue. Well at least that is what the GFS is showing. It has less than an inch for the metro area over the next 16 days. With the heat of July, that is not enough rain for plants and lawns. Yes, we have had a wet year to date, but that doesn’t mean plants and grass will survive without watering. Also, keep in mind when the ground was saturated and we had several of those rains, a lot of that rain ran off and was not absorbed into the soil. The prediction for… Read more »

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Even the rains on Tuesday look to be targeting the same areas that have already gotten hit down to the south and east, according to the NAM3k.