Good morning bloggers,
The weather pattern has suddenly dried out in a few spots near KC. I was just asked on twitter, “I thought you said the LRC was spot on? You said we had a wet pattern setting up around a week ago”. Two things, the LRC is spot on. The weather pattern is right on schedule. The forecast I made for July was for KC to have around 5″ of rain this month, and we are way below that number in most of the KC metro area, but isn’t it only July 8th? And, areas 20 miles east and southeast of the city have had up to 10″ of rain this month already. Our weather forecasts we have made this season have been incredibly accurate from October until now. We are now in the summer version of the LRC.
Look at this incredible comparison from Cycle 3 to Cycle 6. This year we have been in roughly a 49 day cycle:
February 9 is exactly 49 times 3 cycles ago, or 147 days before July 6. And, I checked every cycle from cycle 1 through today, and they all line up. This is just the best example to showcase how the pattern is “still the same, but different” as Gary England said ten years ago when he saw this complex puzzle, and then never quite saw it again. The jet stream is much stronger in February. Count the number of lines between Florida and southern Canada in each picture. The is the Order In Chaos!
The Tropics This Week:
The National Hurricane Center is predicting an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. The European Model blows the storm up and tracks it towards Texas, then up to Kansas City. I am not buying this solution at the moment. That would be quite fun for us to track, if that solution were to come close to verifying. Conditions are favorable for development later this week, and we will begin to narrow in on where this will track. The LRC suggests a system will be forming over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, and then as heights rise, the conditions do favor a westward movement initially.
European Model Projection From Last Night’s Model:
There is some support for this farther west solution, but the chance of it heading towards KC, which is certainly fun to look at on this map, is quite low. Let’s see how this looks on today’s model runs.
Between now and then there are one or two chances of rain and a big warm up coming our way. The next chance of thunderstorms arrives early Tuesday. A complex of thunderstorms will be forming in Nebraska, near the KS/NE border and we will have to see if it holds together as it heads towards NW Missouri.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog featuring the LRC, the Order In Chaos! Have a great day!